Stars Stuff: Beyond the Thanksgiving cutoff, Dallas's win over Winnipeg, and previewing the Utah game tonight

It was a good holiday week for the Stars. With one caveat.

We’ll get to the Dallas vs. Winnipeg game in a second.

For now let’s take a step back and “take stock” as the old fogeys say. Are the Dallas Stars a good team? Yes. Are they a great team? The history is there, which makes their current trajectory confusing, but let’s face it. The Stars didn’t solidify into a proper contender until they fixed their blueline with the addition of Chris Tanev. Imagine the team from years ago without Tanev, and without Joe Pavelski, and I’m not even sure we could confidently call them ‘great.’

However, Dallas has technically replaced them. I don’t believe for a second that Pavelski’s loss has the explanatory power people think it does for reasons that were clear in the playoffs. Sentiment alone does not an argument make. But whatever your estimation is of this Dallas team, they are playoff bound no matter what.

So let’s focus on this piece of statistical lore. Famously, teams have a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs if they’re already in a playoff spot by Thanksgiving. The number is slightly higher if you focus on points percentage rather than the superficial cutoff of “playoff spot or not.” However, that’s not really the interesting part, is it? Dallas may be be many things, but good enough to make the playoffs is patently obvious. Are they contender with a capital C?

Yes, actually. This little rubric below was discussed at The Athletic, and I wrote about it in 2022. Essentially, using basketball as an inspiration, teams with genuine Cup aspirations tend to be top 10 in at least four of the following categories. (SRS, developed by Hockey-Reference, refers to goal differential against strength of schedule)

The data is pretty unambiguous. Dallas is a legit contender, well within the top 10 of these critical categories. Is there a catch?

Kind of. Dallas’ points pace is a bit misleading this early into the season. Believe it or not, they’re on pace for only 97.3 points. That’s not a lot. That’s because there are no dominant teams right now. In fact, per HockeyViz, that’s actually higher than what anyone in the Pacific is projected to finish with (Vegas is on track for 95, followed by Vancouver, Edmonton, and L.A. all with an estimated 94). So it’s not really a knock on the Stars either. With the exception of the power play, which we’ll get to in a bit, everything checks out.

I think this says a lot about who the Stars really are. The power play is a big deal, yes, and their best players haven’t always been their best players, but broadly speaking, they’re playing as a unit. They can still roll four lines, their blueline has been clicking without Matt Dumba and Brendan Smith, and Jake Oettinger has been a lot better than he was last season.

If this isn’t even Dallas fully formed—Jason Robertson finding a groove, whatever the trade deadline might bring, and perhaps even a Texas Stars prospect to cameo—then there’s a lot to be thankful for, frankly. I’m not saying the Stars are Cup favorites or anything like that, but I don’t believe this current squad is as distanced from the team that has consistently went deep in the playoffs as some might think.

Dallas beats Winnipeg 3-1

At last, my Winnipeg skepticism is vindicated! Just kidding. Perhaps the Stars are just rolling. Their shot quality differential says they’ve been the best in the Central, and have been for some time now.

Sunday afternoon was just a solid effort from everyone involved. Mason Marchment’s goal was the big highlight, which deserves a re-watch.

Last September, I went into the film room to figure out who exactly Marchment is; easily one of the most mercurial players of the last several years, on any team. I don’t like to re-read my own work for some obvious (cringe writing moments) and not-so obvious reasons (without an editor here, I have to do a lot of re-reading to begin with). But I’m proud of the film room analysis I did on Marchment, because, despite some warts in the evaluation, it predicted something important.

Marchment was only ever gonna be good, or bad, but neither both, nor intertwined elements of the two; strictly one or strictly the other. I still believe there’s some noise in his production, but Marchment has answered this question. His underlying numbers are back to being Florida good, and nothing about his performance looks to be waning. It’s a key piece to fueling the Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene duo. In fact, if we want to get into the weeds of his contributions, a case be made that Marchment is truly that line’s beating heart.

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to understand Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM).

However, the other major development is that perhaps Dallas doesn’t need Matt Dumba or Brendan Smith…at all.

This will obviously change. Dallas will inevitably come across a matchup where “big” or “nasty” is required, as if this is at all code for efficiency and acumen. And Nils Lundkvist will be the first to be scratched. But since coming back from injury, he’s been very good, and making a real impact in minutes that Pete DeBoer has trusted him in. I hate to put a damper on things. Again, I think Lundkvist is playing extremely well. But it’s hard for me to believe that he’ll be trusted to stay in the lineup following a bad game or two. And it’s still harder for me to believe that DeBoer will put Jim Nill in a position where his nose is open for those offseason additions.

I’m straying aren’t I? Point is, this version of Dallas’ blueline seemed like its best iteration, and by a yardstick.

As for everything else, again: Sunday afternoon felt like a full 60-minute effort. Even the top line looked like it finally had its key in the ignition. It’s an odd thing to say about Hintz, Robertson, and Johnston, but as they long as they’re not struggling, the team won’t. Sidenote: Hintz and Johnston had the most dramatic moments, but I thought Robertson played hard, and deserved (almost) equal acclaim.

Dallas vs. Utah

As good as the Stars were versus the Jets, the Utah Hockey Club won’t be a pushover. Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Logan Cooley are having phenomenal seasons, and Mikhail Sergachev has been everything they could have asked for (well, besides getting sixth overall pick Dimitriy Simashev to the US as soon as possible).

They obviously cooled down from the early “hype” but as can be seen from their shot quality differential, they’re nestled close to ‘legit’ territory at even strength.

Oh right, the power play

I mean. I covered this last week.

I stand by what I said. They have unsurprisingly seen an uptick thanks to running into the mudslide that is Colorado’s PK, but my only point here is to reiterate that Dallas’ problems against aggressive penalty killing units continues to rear its ugly visage.

I don’t, however, recommend putting fourth liners on the power play, as I’ve seen suggested elsewhere. If Dallas would never intentionally put players like Sam Steel and Colin Blackwell on the power play, then doing so is tantamount to admitting that the team doesn’t know how to fix it. Nor does it make sense in some sort of ‘statement’ capacity. Is this not something that can be communicated verbally, or in the film room, as opposed to publicly embarrassing certain players?

I’m all for experimentation, and I think a player like Blackwell in particular has some potential interlinking skills for a power play unit. But Dallas has some specific tactical issues, and specific personnel issues. Addressing these (like keeping Heiskanen away from extraneous point shots), while respecting that some of the power play process has to keep calm, seems like a better, more sustainable way forward. Not asking your Warhammer Tyranids to enter the spelling bee.