Tales From The Clipped: A measured take on Dallas' power play, and a mixtape on what went wrong versus Carolina

Let's explore this one.

I’m always been sensitive to what have fans have to say.

For so many years, hockey fans have always been branded the angry, emotional not-professionals. Listen to the real experts. Like Pierre McGuire. Dave Nonis. Don Cherry. Mike Milbury. Even now, a panel of hockey experts can sound like this. So give me an honest fan’s opinion over an old boy’s club prepackaged talking point any day of the week and twice on Domingo.

Having said that, I think Stars fans have reached a boiling point re: Dallas’ power play and the coaching of Steve Spott that I would politely contend is unjustified — not because fans are wrong, but because they haven’t been proven right. Not yet at least.

Initially I didn’t want to do this. Good analysis should be devoid of reactionary elements, like the power play as a scapegoat for what’s wrong with the Stars (as a scapegoat for losing that game to Carolina, on the other hand? You bet!). And it should be invested in evaluating the climate, such as Dallas’ intrinsic man advantage performance, rather than the weather; in this case, Dallas’ failure to convert on their chances.

So while today will not be a deep dive into analyzing Dallas’ power play as a whole, we will do a deep dive into what went so horribly wrong on Monday night. I’m doing this not because I have my own personal judgments about the Stars power play but because I want to connect with the current discussion among fans. I don’t prop myself up to be a measured response here, but I would like us to take a deep breath and put on our monocles.

Below I clipped a mixtape of every power play entry versus Carolina, and every shot and formation with possession. Separate from those will be a look at those shorthanded goals. But first, some data.

The cold, hard numbers

This won’t jibe with the echo chamber surrounding Spott or the power play, but the data leans heavily towards the opposite narrative: that Dallas is generating solid quantity, and quality compared to league average, but simply isn’t converting for reasons the data alone can’t capture.

Data taken from Evolving-Hockey.

The most positive sign of Dallas experiencing a turnaround is that they’re shooting a lot. In fact, their unblocked shot rates (or Fenwick) are actually higher right now than last season, from 84.61 to 85.34 (if those numbers look obscene, remember; these are adjusted for minutes). Same thing with their shot attempts (or Corsi). They’re taking an extra two shot attempts on the man advantage. Really, the only problem is conversion, and to a lesser extent, their shots on net. If you’re wondering why the discrepancy between goals per 60 and their conversion rank, it’s because the Stars get dinged here for their time on the man advantage (they’re an average penalty-drawing team).

This is the strongest argument in defense of coaching. If Dallas is generating chances, then they must be in position to do so, and are at least giving opposing penalty killing units great difficulty. After all, PK units don’t defend goals, they defend shots, formations, and movement. This is a battle that the Stars power play system is winning, at least on paper. However, it’s only half the battle.

Power Play Entries

Here’s all of Dallas’ power play entries.

Some quick hits:

• Dallas has traditionally favored the double left swing entry, where two players on the left build speed on the opposite side of the puck carrier (commonly known as ‘weakside’). They almost never entered this way on Monday.¹

• Tons of miscommunication. Moments like 0:34 and 0:44 is the kind of sloppiness I don’t even see in juniors.

• Notice the increase in dump-ins as Carolina continues shutting them down.

• Slow routes during the drop pass entries, and in general.

There’s not much to unpack here IMO. All the worst traits of a struggling power play were on full display. To me the biggest offense was the lack of movement by the weakside players. This really amplified the effectiveness of Carolina’s aggressive penalty killing, which we’ll focus on in a bit. Between that and the freelancing—it really felt like some of the puck carriers were too eager to enter with possession on their own—there’s not much to say. It was all bad.

Power Play Shots and Movement

Ignore the last clip that starts at 0:41 (but remember it) and there’s actually a lot to like on the plays where Dallas did generate shots.

If you want room for optimism that the data will line up with the outcomes eventually, check out the Dallas’ 1-3-1 movement. They were, frankly, excellent. Mason Marchment nearly potted one, and Wyatt Johnston shanked a prime opportunity. Granted, nobody gets credit for this kind of stuff, but against the Hurricanes, it’s encouraging to see this kind of movement. And indeed, it’s something they’ve done more of as the year has progressed.

The last sequence at 0:41 really highlights the level of miscommunication going on. I defy you to figure out what is even going on.

A digression: Carolina’s unique penalty kill

For years, Carolina has been the poster child for the power kill: using the man disadvantage to become the advantage. They’ve been ahead of the curve when it comes to creating offense on the penalty kill, thanks to their habit of putting skill players on the PK rather than ham and eggers. Nobody plays the PK like Carolina, and nobody really can either. Here’s what it looks like.

Visual and copy courtesy of Jack Han (Hockey Tactics 2023).

I think this explains a lot of the miscommunication Monday night. Notice how in the entry highlight, the puck carrier was almost always outmanned. That’s an insane concept, but Carolina manages it somehow.

However, I don’t like the excuse that “well Dallas played a great penalty killing team.” What is Dallas trying to be if not an elite team themselves? The other thing that bothers me about this—and the reason I’m walking back what I said the other day when I argued against tabling this power play discussion because “well Carolina’s great” (yes I apologize)—is that Edmonton did the exact same thing against Dallas in the playoffs, aggressively playing the blueline.

That’s the area where I think we can zoom back to Spott’s performance. The Stars should be acutely aware of how their power play can be shutdown with aggressive penalty killing since it was a big part of their playoff failures, and thus should be better prepared to adjust when needed. The fact that they didn’t feels like the kind of tactical déjà vu they simply can’t afford to experience when it gets down to the marrow.

About that shorthanded goal

While I normally don’t want to take too much stock into teams giving up shorties, we’ve already highlighted how freelancing was a problem and Carolina always had two men on the puck carrier. Lo and behold, that’s how the the first shorthanded goal happened.

It’s worth noting this may have been what scared Dallas off of these double left swing entries. Nonetheless, this is just a bad execution by Duchene originating with a bad pass by Logan Stankoven. However, it’s not Stankoven’s only mistake.

I can see what Stankoven was doing, though. Pause at 0:07 and Stankoven senses that he’s in a great position to catch the pass. And he is!² Problem is that Sebastian Aho is one of the game’s best passers. Honestly, this is just an elite play. Aho not only times the pass to beat Miro Heiskanen’s stick sweep, but he gets the puck between Stankoven’s stick and right skate. It’s also elite retrieval by Seth Jarvis, one of the game’s best young forwards. This is not a sequence that can be accomplished by people like Radek Faksa and Blake Comeau, which is why Carolina has and continues one of hockey’s more progressive teams.

So yes, it’s a broken play, but Carolina executed it to a perfection they pioneered.

About the other shorthanded goal (technically)

Again: miscommunication. The puck somehow gets past Jake Oettinger, who seems just as lost in space as the forwards opting for the line change.

Closing thoughts and programming notes

I’m a little too online when it comes to hockey. I read comments everywhere I can find them regarding the Dallas Stars, sometimes to the detriment of my sanity. But I won’t condescend to fans, who are more informed than ever, and who I find myself sometimes even learning from. At the same time, I’m not looking to arouse the rabble for the sake of it. As long as you accept that hockey is partially random—and you should, because that’s the reality—then you should accept that bounces don’t always go your team’s way. Here’s a cheat sheet: three of Dallas’ best forwards simply aren’t getting the breaks when it comes to power play shooting percentage.

Is that the whole story? No. But if you accept that it’s part of the story, then you should be willing to accept that judgment can wait. It doesn’t mean that your criticisms are unfounded; only that 20 games into a season is a soft foundation to levy arguments against.

And with that, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who follows, and subscribes. I won’t be posting Thursday and Friday (I don’t think), as my parents will be in town, but I really appreciate everyone who comments, likes, throws up their own chat thread, or simply reads from afar. I’m thankful for each and every one of you.

1. If you want to know what it looks like when done successfully, I covered it extensively last November here.

2. Not to make excuses for Stankoven but I don’t mind the mentality. If he breaks up the pass, they have a forward caught behind them. The power play is nothing if not a playground for an offense-first mentality. It was the wrong play to slow down like he did, but I think it was a gamble rather than a poor read.