Stars Stuff: Dallas loses in L.A., figuring out who from another team can replace Tyler Seguin, and the 4 Nations Face-Off

The list is surprisingly short.

No one. No one can replace Tyler Seguin.

At least not the year that Seguin was having.

I talked about this today at D Magazine, which I recommend you read because that’s how the algorithm works. Seguin wasn’t just having a great year on a good line: he was having literally his best year on a great line. Because of that, it’s important to consider what exactly Dallas is losing. We’ll discuss some of the candidates I’ve seen mentioned shortly, but for now, let’s talk about last night’s game.

Or do we need to? One of the reasons why I’m not interested in doing game recaps is because I want this place to be heavy on analysis; heavy on figuring out the measured take rather than the one that’s hot (“this team doesn’t have heart!”) or cold (“everybody wants to win“). Whether it’s good or not is up to you. But the point here is that a single game is a fleeting, sometimes emphatic or sometimes minimal reflection of who a team really is. Unless you’re Robert Tiffin, there’s nothing to unpack without repeating yourself.

L.A. has always been pretty decent outside of the playoffs. This year they’re a little more decent thanks to unloading their albatross contract, and bringing up Brandt Clarke. And they’re one of the best defensive teams in the league. In response, the Stars outshot them 28 to 17, with a 2.7 to 2.01 edge in shot quality. “But they lost!” And who are we to blame?

(Granted, the xG chart looks a little different with the fourth line, and Miro Heiskanen/Esa Lindell getting the worst of it, but still)

This isn’t to paper over Dallas’ issues; only to argue that outcomes only tell one part of the story. Take the power play for instance. They had two opportunities and scored one goal for a 50 percent conversion. Pretty good, right? Only if you didn’t watch the game. They once again struggled on their zone entries for reasons we’ve documented, with players once again tying to do too much through the aggressive blueline hold of LA’s. Needless to say, the geography of their efficiency leaves something to be desired.

So yea, tough loss. But hardly the story. And hardly fit for real analysis. Now the story turns to Seguin, a few good men, a few bad men, and the pretty cool 4 Nations Face-Off.

Mikael Granlund

Cap: $5 million in AAV, impending UFA

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about RAPM.

Granlund is having a phenomenal year, with 29 points through 26 games on a line with William Eklund and a rotating spot between Tyler Toffoli and Fabian Zetterlund. He’s on pace for 91 points, which would be a career high. It feels a lot like a buyer beware given his history as a 60-point player for most of his career. Still, he drives offense at a solid level even now.

Why it works: A lot of reasons. Perhaps the most important is that Granlund doesn’t jam Dallas’ cap for any year beyond this one. This means a lot of things, but most critically it means that the Stars can add someone else (a blueliner, for example). Granlund also has a history with Matt Duchene in Nashville, so the script is practically in pre-production. What’s not to love?

Why it doesn’t: He isn’t an upgrade on Seguin. This is crucial because the Stars can’t simply replace Seguin. The whole point of a trade deadline is to add. With Seguin gone, the only way to add is up upgrade. This is important because even if Seguin returns, it’s hard to believe that he’d return as a viable impact player. Granlund isn’t that. In fact, his broad impacts on both sides of the puck have been in decline.

However, while the cap is “free” the assets are not. Simply put, there’s no reason for Mike Grier to get anything other than maximum value with the year Granlund is having. So while it’s fun to see the Stars stockpile as much Finnish talent as possible, I don’t know that it makes them better.

Evgeni Malkin

Cap: $6.1 million in AAV, signed until 2026

He needs no introduction.

Why it works: It’s Malkin!

Why it doesn’t: Malkin’s $6.1M would be on the books through to next year, which would all but eliminate the potential to bring back Duchene. So having both for a deep playoff run sounds nice, but that depends: do you believe the Stars can win the Cup? It’s the main reason why this move doesn’t work: it handcuffs them next year.

Trevor Zegras

Cap: $5.75 million in AAV until 2026

Zegras is having a down year, but it hasn’t always been this way.

Why it works: Zegras may be struggling now, but he began his career with back-to-back 60 point seasons. His shooting wasn’t bad either.

His profile is perfect for Dallas insofar as it adds an element of truly dynamic playmaking that they utterly lack. The other thing is that Zegras fits into the age of the current core.

Why it doesn’t: Again this goes back to the issue with Malkin. Who does Dallas choose long term?

Beyond that, I’m not so sure about Zegras’ ceiling. And that’s kind of the problem. If Dallas is in it to win it, then a player like Zegras doesn’t really make sense, since he’s still discovering who he is.

Honorable mentions

I’ve seen a lot of Chris Kreider (no) and Rasmus Andersson (sure) nods. I’ll get into the weeds of what Dallas could use as we get closer to…well, whatever. But I just want it noted that I wish Vancouver would crash the way they should because, for my money, Conor Garland would be the perfect player to put on the top line. And his cap, which comes off when Jason Robertson’s does, wouldn’t burn their long term flexibility.

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about GAR.

4 Nations Face-Off

With Robertson getting (rightfully) left off the USA roster, I thought it was interesting to note Dom’s observation for his 16 Stats feature, that Robertson is slower than ever. While we’ve had every reason to suspect his foot injury was affecting him, this feels like the smoking gun.

Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, and Roope Hintz predictably made Finland’s roster. My general impression is that USA and Canada still seem like the favorites. USA’s combo and Hellebuyck and that insane blueline might be enough to stop Canada’s absurd forward depth. Sweden would look better if this were three years ago. Except for Lucas Raymond, they don’t have any new blood, while Finland will play the part of spoiler as best they can.