Stars Stuff: Imagining Dallas versus Florida instead of Edmonton, the 2024 Draft, and how it all went wrong

Plus some programming notes.

It’s hard not to salt off at all the cheesy narratives: “Superstar gets his chance!” and all that. But Edmonton’s Stanley Cup appearance is well-earned. Over the last three seasons, the top three teams in expected goal differential are Carolina at the top (57 percent expected goal share), Edmonton behind them (54), and wouldn’t you know it — Florida at three!

Teams that consistently dominate the share of shot quality (assuming league average goaltending) tend to sustainably succeed. So that’s what I mean by ‘well-earned.’ They’ve done everything they could except get consistent goaltending, and unfortunately for Stars fans, they got consistent goaltending against Dallas.

You might be wondering how Dallas ranks in that same category I just mentioned: 7th in expected goal share during that same span, but 3rd if we only include the DeBoer era, behind Edmonton and Carolina. So all the evidence points to Dallas playing hockey once again around the same time next year.

Nonetheless, I know it’s hard for Stars fans not to think about this season as anything other than a “lost” season. I’ve got an autopsy report scheduled in three parts for this month, and as I’ve been sifting through data, video, and my own reflections, I can’t help but think that this Florida team would have mopped the floor with Dallas. I had Dallas losing to Carolina in the Finals, but I wouldn’t have picked them against Florida either.

I know we think of the Stars as the perfect team, but perfection takes on a different meaning in the playoffs. Edmonton is not perfect (cough — Start Skinner), but they have the Connor McDavid difference. Florida is not perfect (cough — that non-Gustav Forsling blueline*) but they have an unstoppable forecheck. So what is that Dallas has, that puts them over the edge? What is they can leverage, at all times, against anyone?

That’s the thing I thought about after writing my reflections with Sean for D Magazine.

That’s my main takeaway when all is said and done. Like Carolina, all the pieces are there, but they’re missing something to put them over the top. Is it something they already have, and it’s just a matter of rearranging stuff? Kind of. But we’ll get into that later.

For No Reason: The Hockey Guy talks Dallas’ Loss

Quick 2024 Draft Thoughts

I’m gonna be doing a lot of draft coverage here. The draft is my favorite part of hockey. If you’re not a fan of this stuff, I hope you stick around because if you like players like Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, then why wouldn’t you want to be around from the beginning? Isn’t that why YOU hate bandwagon fans? Because you’ve been a Stars fan longer? Because nothing justifies gatekeeping like having a longer timeline on something?

So I’m being a little facetious here, but I just think this kind of stuff is fun, and I want you all to be draft nerds so that we can have bigger and better #FreeHonka movements. (Also a little facetious)

If Dallas is looking for big, right shot defenders, this draft has a ton of them. But it also has some blue chip wingers that might be available at #29 where Dallas is picking, so despite not having a top 10 pick, there might be some top 10 talent. The Stars haven’t screwed around at the draft, either.

Stars Stack June Calendar

• Thursday June 6: Autopsy report on Dallas’ offense (like the previews, one half will be for paid subscribers)

• Friday June 7: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Charlie Elick

• Monday June 10: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Teddy Stiga

• Tuesday June 11: Autopsy report on Dallas’ defense

• Wednesday June 12: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Marek Vanacker

• Friday June 14: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on E.J. Emery

• Monday June 17: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Adam Kleber

• Tuesday June 18: Autopsy report on Dallas’ Goaltending/Special teams

• Wednesday June 19: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Ryder Ritchie

• Friday June 21: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Dominik Badinka

• Monday June 24: 2024 NHL Draft Profile on Colton Roberts

• Thursday June 27: What Dallas needs at the draft

• Friday June 28: 2024 NHL Draft Thread In-The-Wild Reactions

I’ll try to fit in a few extras along the way. If you love the draft and don’t see a name you want me to write about, don’t worry. I’ll have a broad post about the rest of the draft, and yes, I’ll mention potential fallers like Adam Jiricek. But I wanted to be selective about who I wrote about, since these are the players I find instructive, not to mention, semi-realistic.

Every day, starting from July 8-August 6 I will have a report card posted on every Star. August will be a slower month, so I might stagger the report cards, but we’ll see.

Programming Note

I noticed a lot of free subscribers coming in. Here at the Stars Stack you can expect at least two free posts a week, plus one paid. If you’re curious about what makes paid content different and why I separate the two, then here’s a handy list.

I’ll be unceremoniously posting explainer cards in the Notes section for various stats I intend to use (one is already up: on sG or synthetic goals), as that was something people asked for in the survey. While questions are open only to paid subscribers (I did this just to keep engagement down), feel free to ask in the comments section. OR, you can always DM me.

For now, I want to take this time to do two things: thank you all for helping create and maintain this place. Sean did a really cool thing the other day, using subscriber money to donate to the Jamie Daniel Foundation for supporting families dealing with substance abuse. I love conservation-type stuff and animal sanctuary work, so while I haven’t decided, if you know some place you’d like to see me donate to — leave a comment! Let’s leave this world a better place, one pissant Stars blog at a time.

Oh, and second! I want to shoutout all the writers in my Recommendations (and one who’s not). A lot of these writers inspire me to be better, or to think more critically about this mostly dumb, but all-the-way awesome sport. None of it makes me more professional, unfortunately, but one step at a time.

Keep reading. I’ll keep writing.

*Mostly joking. They have some super underrated players on the blueline, but let’s face it. In any other context, and probably on most other teams, that top six would not do for other teams what it’s able to do with Florida.