Stars Stuff: President's Trophy still up for grabs, Vegas versus Nashville as an opponent, and could Hintz catch Johnston?

The storm before the calm before the storm.

This is a rare feeling; the sensation of simultaneously feeling secure (Dallas is a great team), and yet never more frightened (Dallas vs. Vegas in the first round?). But you should find it reassuring. And no, not because a potential Dallas vs. Vegas matchup would be easy. On the contrary, it would be the toughest opponent for any favorite in the entire league, and remains one of the tougher stylistic matchups for the Stars in general. No, it should be reassuring because trust me: you won’t experience that feeling often.

That’s what made 2020 so damn fun (on-ice product notwithstanding). There was zero expectation they’d go anywhere. Instead they somehow made it to the Finals with their backup goaltender. Here, it’s a different story. This just feels like a team that can win it all. But every game they have to prove that.

Inexplicably that includes Wednesday night, when Dallas closes out the year against the St. Louis Blues. We’ll find out tonight if Dallas has a chance to win the President’s Trophy. The Ranger will have to lose to the Ottawa Senators, and the the Stars will have to beat the Blues. Interestingly, both favorites have a .500 record against their respective underdogs.

Per Moneypuck, the Rangers have a 14.6 percent chance to win the Cup, the highest of any team. It’s worth remembering that baked into these odds is a team’s potential path to the Cup. The Rangers will get to play either Washington (a minus-40!), Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or possibly even the Islanders (a slim chance, granted). It’s possible New York’s opponent won’t even finish above 90 points. However unlikely, it still emphasizes the difference between New York’s path, and Dallas’, which will be tough any way you slice it, which we’ll get to.

Speaking of…

Programming note: I’ll be doing film room analysis on Esa Lindell tomorrow. That’ll be for paid subscribers. The ‘Tales From the Clipped’ series seems to be popular if the algorithm is any indication, so you know — don’t miss out!

Vegas, LA, or Nashville?

Vegas; remaining schedule (96 points)

• Chicago

• Anaheim

LA’s remaining schedule (97 points)

• Minnesota

• Chicago

Nashville’s remaining schedule (99 points)

• Pittsburgh

As you can see, a number of different things can happen. Vegas can technically catch Nashville for the second wildcard spot if they win out, and Nashville loses to Pittsburgh — which isn’t crazy. That’s an easy schedule, and the Penguins, as flawed as they are, still have Crosby and Malkin. Of course, Vegas could also catch LA, which would put them into a first round matchup with Edmonton, giving Dallas the first round match with LA.

I have a lot of opinions about each of these matchups, but we’ll save that for another post. And I’ll be sure to do a deep dive once the matchups are set. But for now here’s the quick and dirty version:

All three of Dallas’ potential first round opponents grade out as either being able to compete offensively (Nashville), can compete defensively (LA), or have the latest history over them (Vegas). Like I said, this is just the quick and dirty version. Vegas is obviously a better shot generation team than these numbers would indicate given their injuries. The Kings got demolished in their season series with the Stars, which makes Nashville the statistically more dangerous opponent than either Vegas or LA.

Brunette has ostensibly found something with the Predators. I’m always hot and bothered by coaches muting their offense when they already have good goaltending and a good blueline. Why split the difference? Burnette seems like he’s found the balance, realizing that he has the rooks and bishops to flexibly cover all three zones, and therefore squeezing as much offense out of a lineup that on paper, shouldn’t have any.

Offensively, the Predators are the real deal.

LA is the exact opposite, trapping opponents to death with their 1-3-1, and looking to eke out little advantages that add up. On paper, it makes them the inferior opponent, but more interestingly it represents different philosophies, and their raw possession has benefited from it (granted, a lot of their numbers appear buffered by McClellan’s tenure).

Regardless, Dallas’ first round opponent won’t be teams like Minnesota or Seattle; squads that, while good, were overachievers rather than quality opponents.

Hintz vs. Johnston

Hintz needs three goals to take the goal-scoring lead, and two to tie it. Does anyone believe that’ll actually happen? No. Johnston is eighth in even-strength goal scoring for a 20-year old since 2007 ( 22 goals), just above David Pastrnak, Kyle Connor, and Patrick Kane. Insane right? It’s worth wondering what that total would look like if he were playing Jamie Benn’s spot on the top unit.

Nonetheless, I’m curious how Johnston will be perceived over the next couple of seasons. We’ve seen this with Hintz and Robertson, offensive dynamos who suddenly started rounded out their game and the resulting dip in offense led to broad criticism? If Johnston starts getting better defensively, and the offense declines, will he get the smoke too?

I realize this is a bit of a strawman. I don’t believe for a second that fans are genuinely disappointed in Hintz or Robertson. I just think the two raised the bar too high. However, here’s the difference. Hintz and Robertson have seen a broad decline in shot attempts taken and shooting percentages between this year and last. Johnston, however, actually saw his shooting percentage go down (!), from 15 to 14.8 percent. Why is that? Because he’s taken 55 more shots on net this year versus last. And that’s with a growing defensive game.

I’m not sure we’re prepared for just how good Johnston will be in his prime. For now, he’s still not bad.