Listen, St. Louis may be hot, but I’d choose to face them in the first round instead of Colorado 10 times out of 10.
Also, all this recent talk about WyJo (deserved) reminds me of two different podcasts: [redacted in case I’m misremembering who said it] on the Athletic Hockey Show saying he has so-so skating, and the recent Hockey PDOcast ep with Luke Chilcott, the Stars skating coach, calling Wyatt incredibly cerebral. It’s gonna be fun to see him continue to develop.
Also also, I can’t believe I have to join another app to talk about this MFing team 🙃
Public models take the data they get from the NHL, and usually do their own scraping. There's something famously called rink bias, which is what it sounds like. Islanders' statkeeper loves hits. Minnesota tends to overcount on shots. Etc.
A high danger shot is counted as any shot in the immediate homeplate area of the ice. You can see Natural Stat Trick's definition here (scroll down to the Player On-Ice Statistics):
Moneypuck also tallies high danger chances. Outside of that, most models have abandoned it in favor of xG. Evolving-Hockey, Dom's Net Rating, HockeyStatCards, LB-Hockey, TheStanleyCap, JFresh, and most others. Greg Amundsen (PuckLuckAnalytics) is one of the few who doesn't xG at all in favor of shot attempts and high danger chances. So it's actually interesting how certain models pick and choose the data they prefer.
Sure finishing top of the west would be great, but this year feels like one where you start watching the clock before a long weekend wondering how really you can leave without looking a slacker. Give Oetter every other game off. Let everyone eat some nachos, or at least avoid skating heavy minutes. Go into the first round in a good place, they’ll need it because even if he’s back, miro won’t be 100%.
+/- is a useful development tracking stat, especially with the utter lack of data comming out of the AHL.
Looking at Bourque in particular, I'd point to his 0 in year one of the AHL being a product of top line match ups ending in a wash overall. Honestly, not bad for a rookie with no other real blue chip prospects to work with.
Year 2 he got a plus one through the addition of Stankoven, but top line matches still remained somewhat of a wash, as both guys play high risk high reward hockey and both are relatively undersized for the professional game.
Yes, generating PP's and producing on the man advantage is how they buttered their bread, but that's not accounted for in the stat and can be seen in the 30pt jump in production.
I think it's important to remember it's a team stat, and tracking Bourque & Shawinigan's +/- over his career, shows an impressive leader on the ice.
Definitely a terrible stand alone stat, but when combined with the eye test (short hand for an individuals personal understanding and perspective on the game, and not always just "Wow! Light on! Amazing!" Unless we're talking ESPN eye test analysis, which is "Wow! Light on! Amazing! ...NOW GAMBLE YOUR LIFE SAVINGS AWAY!!!!!")
then it can be a useful stat.
I'd personally look at Kyle McDonald's dip in point production, but 20 point increase on the +/- side, as part of his development curve as Texas looks to inlay his defensive bonafides. Get his shot back into form next season with the defensive education of this season, and we may just have another nice post ELC 4th line Back up on our hands. Or at the very least, Colorado's next 5 game experiment ala Tye Felhaber. (He's had a good season for the Eagles, but im still baffled by the fact he got 5 games.)
Listen, St. Louis may be hot, but I’d choose to face them in the first round instead of Colorado 10 times out of 10.
Also, all this recent talk about WyJo (deserved) reminds me of two different podcasts: [redacted in case I’m misremembering who said it] on the Athletic Hockey Show saying he has so-so skating, and the recent Hockey PDOcast ep with Luke Chilcott, the Stars skating coach, calling Wyatt incredibly cerebral. It’s gonna be fun to see him continue to develop.
Also also, I can’t believe I have to join another app to talk about this MFing team 🙃
I'm interviewing Luke tomorrow!
David, remember: Always Be Closing. Tell me your interview is for paid subscribers only 💰
Yes ma'am.
Listen to me you people...lol...
Yeah we don't want anything to do with the Avs if they can be avoided for as long as possible...
They have Co-MVPs and the award should go to both...especially a top Dman over a top Forward.
In the same way, Tommy is more valuable than Johny when it's all said and done.
Guess I never thought about this before but who does the official "high danger chances" counts of games. Are there official ones?
Public models take the data they get from the NHL, and usually do their own scraping. There's something famously called rink bias, which is what it sounds like. Islanders' statkeeper loves hits. Minnesota tends to overcount on shots. Etc.
A high danger shot is counted as any shot in the immediate homeplate area of the ice. You can see Natural Stat Trick's definition here (scroll down to the Player On-Ice Statistics):
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?players
Moneypuck also tallies high danger chances. Outside of that, most models have abandoned it in favor of xG. Evolving-Hockey, Dom's Net Rating, HockeyStatCards, LB-Hockey, TheStanleyCap, JFresh, and most others. Greg Amundsen (PuckLuckAnalytics) is one of the few who doesn't xG at all in favor of shot attempts and high danger chances. So it's actually interesting how certain models pick and choose the data they prefer.
Wow this gives me a lot to look into . Thank you!
Sure finishing top of the west would be great, but this year feels like one where you start watching the clock before a long weekend wondering how really you can leave without looking a slacker. Give Oetter every other game off. Let everyone eat some nachos, or at least avoid skating heavy minutes. Go into the first round in a good place, they’ll need it because even if he’s back, miro won’t be 100%.
Ugh, all the analytics gives me tired head but I'm going to persist in trying to understand them but...all I need is the dang ol +/- stat!!!
The plus/minus Stat will tell you everything you really need to know.
The NHL understands boils it all down overtime and evens out.
But it doesn't make for lengthy, overly analytica,l wordy, wordy nonsense.
For my money the good ol ➕️/ ➖️ stat is all that's needed, and some common sense to know when it should be ignored.
How many years was Ovi bottom 5 in the league for +\-? Below replacement level if you ask me.
+/- is a useful development tracking stat, especially with the utter lack of data comming out of the AHL.
Looking at Bourque in particular, I'd point to his 0 in year one of the AHL being a product of top line match ups ending in a wash overall. Honestly, not bad for a rookie with no other real blue chip prospects to work with.
Year 2 he got a plus one through the addition of Stankoven, but top line matches still remained somewhat of a wash, as both guys play high risk high reward hockey and both are relatively undersized for the professional game.
Yes, generating PP's and producing on the man advantage is how they buttered their bread, but that's not accounted for in the stat and can be seen in the 30pt jump in production.
I think it's important to remember it's a team stat, and tracking Bourque & Shawinigan's +/- over his career, shows an impressive leader on the ice.
Definitely a terrible stand alone stat, but when combined with the eye test (short hand for an individuals personal understanding and perspective on the game, and not always just "Wow! Light on! Amazing!" Unless we're talking ESPN eye test analysis, which is "Wow! Light on! Amazing! ...NOW GAMBLE YOUR LIFE SAVINGS AWAY!!!!!")
then it can be a useful stat.
I'd personally look at Kyle McDonald's dip in point production, but 20 point increase on the +/- side, as part of his development curve as Texas looks to inlay his defensive bonafides. Get his shot back into form next season with the defensive education of this season, and we may just have another nice post ELC 4th line Back up on our hands. Or at the very least, Colorado's next 5 game experiment ala Tye Felhaber. (He's had a good season for the Eagles, but im still baffled by the fact he got 5 games.)
Yeah, good chance we're out in the first rd if it's the Avs, for sure.
Wow did they ever improve at the deadline Nelson, Coyle, and more