FWIW you were spot on in your analysis of the lack of forechecking. Gulutzan and Co. need to look hard at their defensive scheme and whether it's actually the cause of the offensive issues, or at least contributing. "Hyper-conservative" is exactly how this team played this year. Even their slow starts, I'd chalk up more to trying too hard to avoid the Big Mistake early in the game that lack of preparedness. Let the forwards work down low instead of risking a bad pinch. Give up the defensive blue line instead of risking getting burned.
And since I'm full of theories, I suspect the passive/collapse defense was a big contributor to Harley's struggles this year. I feel like he struggles at in-zone reads/coverage and gets stuck in opponents' cycles. He's better when he can be aggressive at the blue line and stop opposing offense before they can get set up and he's got the skating ability to execute. It's tough to design a system that maximizes all your players (especially when the roster construction is so bifurcated), but I can't help feeling like raising the floor for the bottom of the roster lowered the ceiling for the top this year.
I am already getting triggered by the Robo slop. So many opinions following the narrative that he is not physical enough or all he does is score. Some analysis has no depth. To me if the number is close to $12M a year or a little more, you have to sign him and figure it out cap wise.
loved the article yesterday, didn't see anything wrong with the tone or the content. Hey, obviously there's SOMETHING that wasn't working right, or we would still be watching Stars playoff hockey. The stat around being almost dead last out of 300+ playoff teams in shooting % is telling...
Congrats on the 2k subscribers - just tells me there's a lot more fans out there missing some killer analysis...
Neither here nor there but YOU said you like words so.
I still don’t see Harley’s role on this team. This isn’t about him having a down year.
This is about Nill paying him to be a 1st pair defender and Gulutzan not using him like that. I think Harley did average more EV strength minutes than Miro but that’s it? Miro had the most PP time (not even close) and the most PK outside of Lindell.
So Harley feels like a luxury piece or a poorly utilized piece.
(Which is to say he’s got to be the one traded before Robertson and it’s not because he sucks because he doesn’t)
That is a pretty good comments on Harley. He has the 4th biggest AAV going next year.
That is not the kind of money you give to a 2nd pair D.
That D Corps is not a mess, but it's kind of mesmerizing that Nill & Co did not figure this out yet. In fact, it's the opposite as they achieve to messed it out year after year.
Feels good to have arrived independently at the same opinion on the 26-27 season outlook as many of the people I respect in this space (they’re telling me this is called confirmation bias on my part… looking into it).
One question I do have on the “run it back” strategy that connects to the Gulutzan discussion is this: how much leash does the organization give Gully with regard to making the systems changes they need to make (both the ones he’s mentioned and omitted from interviews)? Not advocating for firing Gulutzan by any means, I just wonder how the Stars approach things if 27-28 is the year to go all in and they don’t see system improvements in 26-27. I assumed they’d prefer their all in year to be with a familiar coach rather than a new one given how it can take time to adjust to a new coach. Does that mean Gully has the first half of 26-27 to demonstrate some improvements, or are the Stars forced into riding or dying with him at this point even if they’ve got the same underlying problems as this year? Or would Jim Nill be willing to jettison Gully regardless of the timing if it’s what the team needs to win it all?
Again, I don’t think Gully should be fired or anything like that. Just wondering if there is a point where the firing of a theoretically bad Gulutzan ends up doing more harm than good to Dallas’s chances at winning in 2028. Maybe it’s all irrelevant when you consider that the team’s window is until ~2030.
Cheers a great season of reading writing, and looking forward to what the offseason has in store!
Thanks for your hardwork this year and looking forward for the off season.
I have to admit that, as much as I hate being eliminated, I love to read and talk about the potential moves the team can make in building the next season.
As you pointed out, the main challenge here is to create Cap space in order to sign Robertson and Bourque. One of the path in doing that (and a big one if I may say so) would be to trade Harley.
How about a one on one trade for Knies? He would be a great add on the Top line with Hintz and Rantanen. Of course this would create a massive hole in the D Corps, but it would allow to put Miro back on the left side. How about this:
FWIW you were spot on in your analysis of the lack of forechecking. Gulutzan and Co. need to look hard at their defensive scheme and whether it's actually the cause of the offensive issues, or at least contributing. "Hyper-conservative" is exactly how this team played this year. Even their slow starts, I'd chalk up more to trying too hard to avoid the Big Mistake early in the game that lack of preparedness. Let the forwards work down low instead of risking a bad pinch. Give up the defensive blue line instead of risking getting burned.
And since I'm full of theories, I suspect the passive/collapse defense was a big contributor to Harley's struggles this year. I feel like he struggles at in-zone reads/coverage and gets stuck in opponents' cycles. He's better when he can be aggressive at the blue line and stop opposing offense before they can get set up and he's got the skating ability to execute. It's tough to design a system that maximizes all your players (especially when the roster construction is so bifurcated), but I can't help feeling like raising the floor for the bottom of the roster lowered the ceiling for the top this year.
I am already getting triggered by the Robo slop. So many opinions following the narrative that he is not physical enough or all he does is score. Some analysis has no depth. To me if the number is close to $12M a year or a little more, you have to sign him and figure it out cap wise.
loved the article yesterday, didn't see anything wrong with the tone or the content. Hey, obviously there's SOMETHING that wasn't working right, or we would still be watching Stars playoff hockey. The stat around being almost dead last out of 300+ playoff teams in shooting % is telling...
Congrats on the 2k subscribers - just tells me there's a lot more fans out there missing some killer analysis...
Neither here nor there but YOU said you like words so.
I still don’t see Harley’s role on this team. This isn’t about him having a down year.
This is about Nill paying him to be a 1st pair defender and Gulutzan not using him like that. I think Harley did average more EV strength minutes than Miro but that’s it? Miro had the most PP time (not even close) and the most PK outside of Lindell.
So Harley feels like a luxury piece or a poorly utilized piece.
(Which is to say he’s got to be the one traded before Robertson and it’s not because he sucks because he doesn’t)
That is a pretty good comments on Harley. He has the 4th biggest AAV going next year.
That is not the kind of money you give to a 2nd pair D.
That D Corps is not a mess, but it's kind of mesmerizing that Nill & Co did not figure this out yet. In fact, it's the opposite as they achieve to messed it out year after year.
Also congrats on 2k!
Feels good to have arrived independently at the same opinion on the 26-27 season outlook as many of the people I respect in this space (they’re telling me this is called confirmation bias on my part… looking into it).
One question I do have on the “run it back” strategy that connects to the Gulutzan discussion is this: how much leash does the organization give Gully with regard to making the systems changes they need to make (both the ones he’s mentioned and omitted from interviews)? Not advocating for firing Gulutzan by any means, I just wonder how the Stars approach things if 27-28 is the year to go all in and they don’t see system improvements in 26-27. I assumed they’d prefer their all in year to be with a familiar coach rather than a new one given how it can take time to adjust to a new coach. Does that mean Gully has the first half of 26-27 to demonstrate some improvements, or are the Stars forced into riding or dying with him at this point even if they’ve got the same underlying problems as this year? Or would Jim Nill be willing to jettison Gully regardless of the timing if it’s what the team needs to win it all?
Again, I don’t think Gully should be fired or anything like that. Just wondering if there is a point where the firing of a theoretically bad Gulutzan ends up doing more harm than good to Dallas’s chances at winning in 2028. Maybe it’s all irrelevant when you consider that the team’s window is until ~2030.
Cheers a great season of reading writing, and looking forward to what the offseason has in store!
Thanks for your hardwork this year and looking forward for the off season.
I have to admit that, as much as I hate being eliminated, I love to read and talk about the potential moves the team can make in building the next season.
As you pointed out, the main challenge here is to create Cap space in order to sign Robertson and Bourque. One of the path in doing that (and a big one if I may say so) would be to trade Harley.
How about a one on one trade for Knies? He would be a great add on the Top line with Hintz and Rantanen. Of course this would create a massive hole in the D Corps, but it would allow to put Miro back on the left side. How about this:
Miro-Kesselring
Lindell-Lundkvist
Bichsel-Myers/Petrovic
Anyway, I wish you a good off-season.
Congrats on 2k! I’ll be waiting for Nill to announce a Luke Evangelista, Nick Perbix and draft picks for Robo trade.
Don't forget to study the Nils glow-up!