Stars Stuff: Stankoven versus Michkov, Dallas defensemen scoring, and Timothy Liljegren

It'll be awhile before the Stars play again, but there's plenty to discuss.

The Dallas Stars are sitting pretty, coming off a stilted but definitive 4-2 win over Chicago, but we won’t see them in action until Friday when the Global Series takes them to Finland, against the defending Stanley Cup champs the Florida Panthers.

I’m gonna talk more about the state of the Stars for D Magazine tomorrow, because I think their season, small sample size or not, is an interesting contradiction of elements thus far. However, Dallas isn’t the only interesting team, and while Colorado and Edmonton scramble to catch up¹, a lot of other squads are emerging to varying degrees of sustainability.

Not topping the list is Winnipeg. My cheap heuristic is the one I used for Vancouver last year: no team gets the benefit of the doubt if their history didn’t in some ways suggest it. The Jets are a good team, but Mark Scheifele has never been a number one center with his incredibly weak defensive impacts, and their bottom six forwards are not point-per-game players (which a lot of them are right now). By all means, call me out if they go deep into the playoffs or win the Cup, but like Joe Cabot huffs. “You don’t need proof when ya got instinct!”

Minnesota, on the other hand, is legit. Prior to this season, they were a top four defensive team in shot quality allowed over the previous two seasons. The defense has always held up, even without Jared Spurgeon; only goaltending left them out to dry. Kirill Kaprizov won’t hit the 147 point pace he’s currently on, but he’ll finish close to that, while Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy are taking the proverbial next steps. Filip Gustavsson’s save percentage of .922 will come back down to earth, but his career average is .912, well above the putrid .899 he posted last year. Even L.A. and Utah are flossing some strong possession chops early on. These aren’t teams that should have the Stars quaking in their boots, but unlike Winnipeg, they’re being driven by youth and an established core rather than a great goalie and a bunch of ham and eggers with hot hands.

In many ways, this is encouraging. There’s no dominant, sustainable force in the Central except for Dallas. The Pacific is in a similar boat. Vegas has the results, but if you peel back the curtain, it’s their power play driving them.² Edmonton will snap out of it, but again, what kind of team are they when the playoffs rolls around?

It’s a weird hyperspace to be in, where Dallas’ performances leave something to be desired, but they’ve been unbent and unbroken amidst a shifting landscape. That’s not a bad place to be in.

Speaking of places, tomorrow’s the prospect report, and a piece for D Magazine. I’ll have two more pieces up Wednesday and Thursday, along with November’s calendar finished by the end of the week. As always, like this article if you like it, subscribe if you really like it, and upgrade to paid if you absolutely love it. And if you’re wondering where I hide when I’m not on Substack, well, I don’t.

Logan Stankoven vs. Matvei Michkov

Michkov will likely win. I hope you can read that sentence and consider the explanation I might have for that instead of formulating ways to reprimand me. For me, it’s very simple. Minutes matter. Michkov is playing a whopping four more minutes than Stankoven in all sitautions. Part of what’s driving Michkov’s success is his time on the man advantage too. Stankoven plays middle man minutes on the second unit.

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyViz.

Meanwhile, John Tortorella has completely embraced the Michkov experience by giving him the most minutes on the top unit.

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyViz.

“But Stankoven is the better player.”

I don’t know how many of you are watching Michkov from shift to shift, but the kid is brilliant. You know how brilliant a player has to be for Tortorella to be rolling out the red carpet for a teenager? Vinh Cao has a really good breakdown if you want to get lost in the weeds of who Michkov is.

First Impressions: Matvei Michkov

Stankoven is a very different player. Michkov’s game is built around vision and spacing whereas Stankoven exists in a world of vision and pace. Both players are on point per game averages. The last rookie to finish at a PPG was Mat Barzal. These kids are in very good company. My favorite part about Stankoven is watching him leverage pace into territory.

I love these between the leg passes to himself, as they all but guarantee protection from traditional pokechecks and defensive surfing. It’s not the first time he’s pulled this move either.

As an aside, I would love to see what the one-on-one battles look like between Stankoven and Miro Heiskanen in practice.

Anyway, as mentioned: it’s hard for me to believe that Stankoven will be able to win the Calder at this rate. Obviously, things can break down in his favor. Torts is nothing if not a moody guy. All Michkov needs to do is lay an egg, and maybe Torts scratches him for a week. But he has the minutes edge right now, and that should be enough.

Keep in mind, the minutes discussion is not a criticism. Philadelphia only has Michkov. Conversely, Dallas is one of the deepest teams in the league, and Stankoven’s minutes could change if he ends up a fixture on the top line at some point, but it’s not a priority for the Stars, nor does it need to be. While some players haven’t clicked the way that Matt Duchene has, everybody’s more or less pulling their weight.

Calder wins are not about who the better player is; they’re about which player had the best outcomes. As to the question of who the better player is, that question holds about as much interest to me as those dime-a-dozen fantasy fights. “Who would win, Ali or Tyson??”

It’ll be years before we have a vision of what their respective career arcs will look like. For now, I’m just enjoying both.

Blueline boxscore blues

I get that Dallas’ defensemen scoring is a talking point, but it’s not like Jim Nill brought in any puck movers. Outside of Miro Heiskanen’s slow start, why is anyone surprised?

The good news is that Dallas’ shot quality rates by their defenders are actually way better than their scoring would indicate.

Visual courtesy of Jack Fraser.

Heiskanen will be fine. Thomas Harley will be fine. Nils Lundkivst is somehow the most stable of all defenders, with the numbers to match: he’s a +22 in shot attempt differential per 60 minutes of even strength play (next closest is Esa Lindell at a +2), and leads defenders in expected goal percentage at 55 percent. So yea, don’t sweat it. Defensemen scoring won’t be what drives their offense anyway. It’s certainly not a perfect blueline, but their job is to hold down the fort, and they’re doing that.

Anybody interested in Timothy Liljegren?

The Athletic posed the question last week: which teams would make for a good fit for the 25-year old Swedish defender?

Liljregren has fallen out of favor in Toronto. Oh right. This is hockey, so there’s some absurd plot twist. That’s right. He’s a healthy scratch despite being signed to a new deal, this summer, paying him three million per year for the next two. So yea, it’s ridiculous, but so is this league. I have a love/hate relationship with the Leafs because they were the first “side” team I decided to root for in the 90s. Now I can’t stand them, but a lot of media figures, personalities, and analytics writers emerged out of the Dave Nonis/Randy Carlyle era, which is when I got my analytics baptism.

Harman Dayal and James Mirtle mention Dallas. To their credit, they completely understand the awkward fit of it all, and even highlight Lundkvist’s advanced play. Is Liljregren not good enough to crack a defensively weak team like the Leafs? Per sG, he borders on first-pairing quality.

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about HockeyViz’ sG.

I would love it, personally. Paying Liljegren more or less the same as Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba feels like a steal by comparison. And sure, both defenders have been fine, but given the lack of defensive scoring, we can point to one thing Liljregren would have over both. The other thing is that Liljregren is fantastic skater, and a lot quicker than Lundkvist, which feels like an upgrade in some ways if theoretically paired with Lindell. As good as Lundkvist is playing, I’m not ready to forget the recent — and sizeable — past just yet.

Is there a downside? Yep. Liljregren has played sheltered minutes during his tenure with Toronto. sG tends to look awkward in these scenarios, as it put Julius Honka in similar territory, and called Radek Faksa a second-line quality winger last season. That doesn’t mean there’s not something there; just that the numbers alone only give us a raw clue about his shift to shift rating in sheltered minutes.

I still feel like Dallas lacks speed, so Liljregren — even if this is all just theorycrafting — is an enticing name, but alas. Nill got his henchmen, who have been totally fine, and that’s who they’re bringing to the dance when it gets down to the marrow.

1. They will. It’s like the inverse of Detroit last year. They’re displaying dominant shot rates right now.

2. And boy is it ever. Here’s Jack Han on their man advantage sorcery.