Stray Observations: Hard work against light competition as Dallas beats Edmonton 4-3
It wasn't pretty. Again.
Edmonton has been going through a rough patch. They’ve fallen to third in the Pacific with L.A. heating up, and their two most important players — Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — are week to week. Adding insult to injury is how extremely good Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg have been, single-handedly fueling St. Louis into a wildcard spot1. Both have been better, and more productive than the veterans the Oilers brought in at their expense between Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, and Adam Henrique.
Dallas has had the opposite of a rough patch, at least on paper. They’re armed with one of hockey’s best wingers thanks to an unlikely string of events, and while they’re still missing key players, they’re comfortably second in the division. Still, the performances weren’t matching the outcomes, and it’s not a phenomenon that went unnoticed by Pete DeBoer.
Until tonight? Yes and no. Mostly no? I’m not sure.
We’ll get to the strays in a bit. For now, it’s good to see the Stars build their own momentum. And I don’t mean winning. Yes, winning is nice. But statistically, there’s no evidence to indicate that teams need to be “hot” going into the playoffs. That makes logical sense since the last regular season games are usually the ones where the starters get a few less minutes, less shifts, and sometimes even games off; not to mention, the backup goaltender gets more games. For me, it’s all about the momentum within the roster. The sustainable patterns that project to always be there. A Jason Robertson hat trick might be an extreme example, but what’s not extreme is the shift-to-shift impact he’s had on offense. Well, technically it is extreme, but you get the point.
Robertson’s been due. And it’s looking like that will continue.
If I’m being a doomsayer, well — you saw why. Again. Slow starts defined Dallas in last year’s playoffs. There’s no reason for them to start slow at this point. Against an Edmonton team this depleted, or Minnesota before. Those are not the lineups for your starting netminder to be challenged in. Miro Heiskanen or not, the forward lineup is too dangerous to not take these games by the throat.
I don’t want to belabor my issues with Dallas without Heiskanen. Again: without him, they can’t take games off. And that was the Edmonton game in a nutshell. Even with Robertson’s hat trick, they took their foot off the gas for 10 minutes, and all hell nearly broke loose.
I’m almost okay with that. Teams down that hard will make the inevitable push, and teams up by that much will inevitably sit back. That’s not “turtling.” That’s human reflex. However, what’s less okay is being outshot at even-strength 21 to 17, and losing the expected goal battle 1.84 to 2.52. That’s a stat line you live with in a win if you had to defend McDavid and Draisaitl all night. Without…well, let’s move on to some positive thoughts.
Jake Oettinger
Say what you want about the rest of the team, but Oettinger has been dialed in for a hot minute. It’s not just the routine stuff, and the positioning. I get the sense that he’s playing ‘extra’ — whatever that means. And I truly don’t know what that means. But I know when I see it, and I see Oettinger playing like he has to pull the team together, by any means necessary. The late goals weren’t even particularly egregious. It was just tons of traffic in front of him for a full 10 minutes.
The top line
Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Mikko Rantanen is the defacto top line. Despite that, the production wasn’t coming. It’s not just about the talent level on one line. It’s also about the fact that a player as good as Rantanen being legitimately snakebit never stays snakebit for long. That was the point of the article the other day: despite what the lanyards and carnival barkers said, Rantanen was actually very good in Carolina. Dallas was likely gonna get that version. The rest would be a matter of how he was maximized. The raw talent, however, isn’t going anywhere and would always be due.
Watching The Spreadsheets (And The Games): Is Mikko Rantanen adjusting or getting unlucky?
With five points through eight games — interestingly, a similar point pace while he was in Carolina — the questions, early reactions, hot takes, and cold takes are finally starting to trickle in.
I’m still curious to see where they go. My gut still says there’s a better combination waiting. But my gut is flabby and unrestricted. There’s no mistaking what the bottom line is if that top line finds their own stride: world domination.
Wyatt Johnston: still elite
Johnston is on path to clear his 65 points from last season. Quite easily. In fact, he should be able to crack 70. Regardless, it’s not the point totals I find impressive, but the continued development even as his quality in teammates has waned. There aren’t many forwards who can cross 60 points in their sleep. Yes, he had some time on the top line. But his uptick in points coincided with a reunion with Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov (plus: see heading below). No disrespect to either player, but it’s clear who single-handedly drives that line. Johnston is part of the core, yes. But given his status in the pecking order, he’s also a luxury no other team can boast. He’s a turret stationed on his own island, and it doesn’t matter where the battle’s happening. He’s always at range.
That new, old, new top power play unit
I miss it. That is all.
The Dallas Stars power play isn't just fixed. It's some kind of monster.
Special teams is fascinating because it’s only 20 percent of any given game, and yet within that 20 percent is an entire universe of new roles, systems, tactics, and philosophy. Milquetoast broadcasts will drone on endlessly about the momentum shift of a game by pointing out a big hit, or one of hockey’s many glorified wrestling matches, but nothing truly changes the momentum of a game like a violation committed by one team, and the opposing team capitalizing (or not) on that violation.
The Edmonton perspective
The Oilers might panic in the public eye, and the injuries are certainly scary, but everyone will be ready before the playoffs. If anything, they should — internally — be thankful that their superstars get to rest.
They have the coziest spot in the world right now. Vancouver is too awful and too far (seven points) to reach them. That puts them on track to face the L.A. Kings for the fourth consecutive first round series. Which is hilarious and tragic if you’re the Kings.
Or is it? There’s no doubt that Edmonton got worse. Losing Holloway, Broberg, Foegele, and McLeod took a lot of depth out of their lineup. Also a lot of speed. Meanwhile, the Kings are a complete enigma. Excellent defensively no matter what, they wax between looking elite, and looking like the Islanders’ west coast brother. If LA is maxing out at just the right time, could that be the recipe for an upset? Maybe. I’m not so ready to call it an early golf year for the Oilers. While they got worse, and who knows with Stuart Skinner, you still have McDavid, Draisaitl, and a blueline that the world would credit you for if you didn’t pay Darnell Nurse that much money. That’ll always leave them with an edge on anyone. But if this is the year the Kings break through, would anyone be surprised?
This is what we call hyperbole.
I could just TELL that when Skinner got pulled/hurt, the Oilers were gonna mount a comeback…!
Why can’t the Stars clear the zone to save their lives lately?
I thought last night was a dismal performance. Well, other than Otter's goaltending and the ability to translate opportunities into goals (pretty much the purpose of the game).
The Stars were again dominated in possession. They failed to do the simplest of things repeatedly; cannot recall how many times simple, short, relatively uncontested passes failed to connect. Cannot recall how many times players failed to exit the zone when an eminently reasonable chance was there.
And that final period...ugh. It's one thing to get outscored and outshot...but they got outshot 11-0 at one point. As soon as the Stars moved the puck into the neutral zone it seemed they were blind because they weren't carrying the puck or connecting on anything and the Oilers just totally stifled them.
We've see that a LOT the last two months where the Stars not only don't look elite they don't even look like an average NHL team; they look downright bad.
LIke you said, this team should not be getting dominated in puck possession against the Wild and Oilers, both without their two best players. It's deeply concerning and IMO there's something about this team right now where all whole is less than the sum of the parts.
Honestly tired of watching mediocre hockey from this group. The way this team is playing right now they won't last 5 games vs Colorado without Miro.