Stray Observations: With their 50th win, the race is on to catch Winnipeg

Hold on to your butts.

The race is on.

Right now, there’s no bigger deal in Dallas than trying to do what no one thought was possible: catch Winnipeg.

The night certainly didn’t start that way. Once again Dallas was outshot early on, once again it didn’t hurt them in the long run, and once again — in the long run, they won. While the path for Dallas’ recent victories has sparked a lot of debate, the results are bringing them closer and closer towards a more favorable matchup in the first round; exactly what they need to hold out while Miro Heiskanen awaits.

As of this writing, they’re two points back of Winnipeg, and only one behind Washington for the President’s Trophy title. Except for the Jets, Dallas doesn’t have any tough games. That makes their showdown with their peers next Thursday all the more critical, even if Winnipeg’s schedule is a lot tougher, and therefore may not even be a factor even if the Stars lose.

For all the riotous debate about who Dallas is or is not, their position is at an all-time high. The only team with more wins is Winnipeg. Meanwhile, their goaltenders keep stopping shots, and their forwards keep scoring on their shots (we’ll get to some of this in a bit).

For someone like me who tries to take a strict analytic approach, I don’t know what to tell you. This is neither the time nor the team to start plotting on a histogram. Elite outcomes haven’t always followed elite performances, but the results are enough to put them in the ideal scenario to begin the postseason — facing an inferior opponent, and leveling up from there unlike last season, where they had to start with M. Bison.

Assuming, of course, they surpass the Jets.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Game Score.

Another slow start

One of the constants with this Dallas team is the slow start. When looking at shot attempts through the first, this current principle held true. This is happening often enough that I think we can call it one of their issues. And it feels like it’s happened much more often with the absence of Miro Heiskanen. I don’t expect this trend to continue though. At least not to this degree. The Stars haven’t just been outshot. They’ve been dominated. But here’s the thing: being flawed doesn’t mean being bad.

Wyatt Johnston: netfront demon

I’m gonna talk about Johnston more next week because what he’s doing is special. Granted, no discussion/analysis will beat Dimitri’s sitdown with skills coach Darryl Belfry. Nonetheless, I’ll do my part. For now, it’s worth appreciating what a danger he is around the net, constantly.

Johnston has quickly shed that good young player description, and become one of hockey’s premier centers. If the NHL had another 4 Nations tournament next year, who thinks Johnston isn’t making Team Canada’s roster? Obviously, Johnston didn’t settle for a good shift, scoring yet another gorgeous goal (does he score any other kind?)

“PDO Merchants”

I made a comment in jest in the Stars Discord about how Dallas would score late in the second and early in the third ‘seconds apart’ or something to make fans forget about the poor start. Kind of silly, but semi-prophetic. I’ve said what I needed to say with regards to PDO itself and the positive side. The main concern is that it’s less about the variation itself and more about how this is happening to otherwise weak teams. Ideally Dallas is able to flip the script, but getting back to the positive end of the spectrum: Dallas has really good goaltending (Jake Oettinger was good) and really good shooters (Wyatt Johnston: elite).

That much won’t change.

Lian Bichsel

Bichsel had one of his Hulk Smash/Refs Disagree moments. You’d like to see him enhance his calm and cut down on the penalties, but there’s no denying that he’s come into his own. If you’re used to seeing these, then you know that young players rarely have good underlying numbers, especially defensively. That Bichsel is looking like this is a good sign.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to Jack Fraser’s hockey cards.

He remains composed with the puck (despite a gaudy turnover in the second period), and isn’t afraid to activate with much more intention than you might think. As I’ve mentioned before, his shot in the AHL had way more mustard than you’d assume out of a defensive defenseman.

The real question is what happens when Heiskanen returns. Matt Dumba has been lowkey effective in sheltered minutes. Might Bichsel, given his rookie status, be the odd man out with a veteran Dumba-Lyubushkin third pair? It seems silly, but it wouldn’t surprise me. The coaching staff obviously loves what he’s doing, and his physicality will only ramp up in the playoffs, but we’ve seen this story before, so I’m curious what happens in the near future even if it’s way too premature to be having this conversation.

The Nashville perspective

Perspective is all Predators have. Barry Trotz’ aggressive push towards bringing in skilled, but aging veterans predictably backfired. The random trades they made, like the Pittsburgh one for Michael Bunting, muddle the end game even more. However, Trotz has been pretty candid about where the Predators are at, and the mistakes made. Don’t be surprised if Nashville becomes an aggressive team during the offseason ala what Doug Armstrong did with the Blues. While they don’t have a ton of cap to play with, they have contracts they can move, and the core (which is still decent enough) is locked in. Also, I wouldn’t expect Jusso Saros to have anything close to the season he’s having. And getting Roman Josi back will help.

Programming note

Tomorrow I have a piece in D Magazine on Casey DeSmith so watch for that in the morning.

Also, if you missed my discussion with Stars skating development coach Luke Chilcott, please check it out. It’s rare that I get to write stuff like this, and I want to keep writing stuff like this.