Tales From the Clipped: Analyzing the Matt Duchene Effect, Dallas' King of Rush
Per the film room, Duchene hasn't just been a bargain. He's a central cog in Dallas' attack.
A big deal is always made about Matt Duchene’s contract. “Three million for that guy?!” Obviously. It was always a steal because Duchene has always been an elite player. For sure, there was concern that he’d hit his inevitable decline, but it was a savvy pick up, and Jim Nill has been rightfully praised for it.
But Duchene didn’t just come in, and add depth. Until Tuesday night, he officially led Dallas in points with 55, on pace for over 80 through a full season. However, I wouldn’t be here today if that’s all there was to the story. Duchene’s pricetag is not just a steal because he’s producing. It’s a steal because he’s become arguably the centerpiece to Dallas’ attack. It’s as if a team paid three million to add a core player.
What are you saying? Duchene is Dallas’ most important offensive player? Kind of. The Stars didn’t really have a great rush attack last year. Per Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Dallas generated 15.2 shots per 60 off the rush, which ranked 17th. This year they rank 12th. This is a bit (okay, very) deceptive, as they’re actually generating less rush chances than last year. However, they’re currently tied for the lead league in goals off the rush. How did they end up scoring as many goals off the rush by January 30th this season as they did all of last season?
Duchene! Granted, it’s not just one thing. Chalking up all of Dallas’ elite offense to Duchene is silly. After all, if controlled zone exits are essential to creating more effective zone entries, then that takes us straight into the Thomas Harley discussion. But for today, we’re focused on Duchene.
Duchene doesn’t just lead the Stars in controlled carries per entry — surpassing even Roope Hintz, and by a wide margin — but he’s leading the team in chances linked to those controlled entries. In fact, outside of Jack Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon (who are in the Kratos tier), he’s in a special class.
The end result is Duchene having the second-best season of his career…at the age of 33. Not sure how Jim Nill keeps pulling this kind of stuff off, but he seems good at it. (We’ll ignore the Martin Hanzal one, since I firmly believe that Ken Hitchcock made that recommendation to Nill with a lightbulb and a moist towel.) So how does Duchene do it? What does it look like? How has one guy transformed Dallas’ attack on entries?
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