The 2024 Playoff Sober Report: Dallas' blueline was elite, but did it need to be perfect?

Let's break it down.

This time last year, Dallas’ blueline was all the talk. With Ryan Suter on the top pair next to Miro Heiskanen, and Jani Hakanpaa in a top four role, the Stars’ loss to Vegas in six had a very obvious reason.

This year, Dallas blueline was their driving force. With Suter in a bottom-pairing role where he belonged, Thomas Harley combined with Heiskanen, and to help Esa Lindell carry the shutdown load, Chris Tanev was brought in at the trade deadline for a second round pick and Artem Grushnikov.

The end result couldn’t be better. Three of Dallas’ defenders were top 13 in even-strength plus/minus. Chris Tanev did the dirty work in helping shut down Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel. Miro Heiskanen provided ample support, and before they faced off against Edmonton, everything went according to plan.

And then they lost. There are lot of reasons we can point to: DeBoer not taking advantage of home ice, special teams (not just Steve Spott and the power play), the top line downgrading, etc. We broke down the reality of Dallas’ depth, so needless to say, if you want to point fingers, those fingers should be in the face of everything except the blueline.

The Stars were second in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes of even strength play. They were sixth in shot attempts against per hour at even strength. You might be wondering “so why were they 12th in goals against per hour at even strength?” Because defense and goaltending are two different things. Granted, we can argue over the degree to which that’s the case, but I would say that I think we can all agree that Jake Oettinger’s regular season was mixed, whereas the Stars blueline more or less did its job. Those stats aren’t even counting the buffer Dallas gets from a full season of Chris Tanev.

However, while we can’t blame the Dallas blueline, perhaps we can nitpick. The Stars were quite amusing analytically once the playoffs rolled around. They were second in xGA/60, just like they were in the regular season. But they went from 6th to 11th in shot attempts against at EV.

Something weird happened. Can we get to the bottom of it?

Dallas’ blueline: elite by any measure

The Stars had three players on the blueline ranking at or above the average top pairing defender. (Four if we include Joel Hanley, but we’ll table that discussion for…well, never.)

Let’s start with the obvious. Harley and Heiskanen were on another planet for most of the season. For most of the year, and most of the playoffs, Harley was the biggest shock. His point totals took a major dip, going from 1.7 points per 60 to. 53 (!!). But I thought his defensive game was stellar in the playoffs. That was…until the Edmonton series.

It’s hard to know exactly what the story on Harley was, but I think the most obvious explanation is the simplest one: he just finished his first full season. Not only that, but this was his first full playoff run in much more difficult minutes. As if that weren’t enough, there was the whole five-defenders fiasco. I can’t really criticize Harley all that much because I think for what he did with that level of experience is more than encouraging. Contrast what Harley has been able to do versus Philip Broberg, and I think things are still ahead of schedule for him. (Although good on Edmonton for finally doing the blatantly obvious thing and putting him in the lineup.)

The sG for Tanev might look a little funny, but it’s important to remember that these models are looking at a player’s net rating. Tanev is punished for his lack of offense creation while Lindell is rewarded. (Lindell’s an odd duck in that he doesn’t have offensive talents to speak of, but he does create with simple plays and quick decisions.)

The thing everyone will undoubtedly notice is that Nils Lundkvist rated higher than Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, and Derrick Pouliot. I don’t think Lundkvist was the answer, but I also think it’s clear that Dallas’ third pair continues to be a problem. In fact, you could make the argument that it was so much of a problem that it hurt the rest of the blueline.

I’m not ready to go there, but I also thought this just bad communication between DeBoer and Nill. If DeBoer had no intention of trusting Lundkvist, then he should have made it known. If Nill knew DeBoer would struggle to trust Lundkvist, then he should have a move at the deadline. This would have avoided the five defensemen nonsense. Sure, we can’t quantify exactly how it affected the blueline, but we can say this with certainty — nobody’s ever done it, nobody currently does it (certainly not the two finalists), and if anything, Dallas might have provided proof of concept that nobody ever will.

I know some people liked Alex Petrovic, but I thought he was pretty poor as the playoffs wore on. Slow to react, losing foot races, and some really bad off-puck movement — same thing I saw in the AHL where Lian Bichsel was by far their best defender. It’s not necessarily Petrovic’s fault, but if Dallas is serious about making another push, that third pair needs to be scrapped entirely. That’s not to diss Ryan Suter. He was fine, but the fact that it’s entirely possible he hits a wall suddenly just like Joe Pavelski is a frightening thought.

Overall though, they did a good job at even strength of shutting down the Oilers. It’s very clear what Dallas’ problem is when it gets down to it: their offense. In fact, I think the Stanley Cup Finals right now are emphasizing just how problematic it was given how easily (in a manner of speaking) Florida is slicing through Edmonton’s blueline. But this blueline? Elite.

I want to get re-emphasize that Thomas Harley is gonna be absolutely fine.

We’ll talk about Special Teams and goaltending next week, but for now I think it’s worth exploring what Dallas needs to do from here, and how they can go from elite, to…maybe perfect. (We’ll dig into a little free agency talk too.) But not before I get at least some criticism out the way.