The Dallas Stars set a franchise record on Saturday but who wants to talk about that?
After all, there's the Nils Lundkvist and Evgenii Dadonov scratches to discuss!
Going into Saturday’s game versus the Tampa Bay Lightning, the big story was Dallas trying to generate a 60-minute effort against a strong team with a debilitating weakness (turnovers and goaltending). They put the game away within the first seven minutes thanks to Tampa’s turnovers and goaltending, setting a franchise record for best 10-game road start and the game went into zombie mode as the Stars cruised to an 8-1 victory.
Nobody’s talking about that and rightfully so: the roster decisions before the game started were...well, worth discussing. We’ll get to that, but for now let’s focus on the positive: the top line is starting to wake up. Before the Tampa game, they were on the ice for 188 shot attempts for, and 188 against for a clean even 50 percent shot share — pretty bad actually for hockey’s top line. Almost overnight they went up two percentage points, not conceding a single shot attempt against, and generating 15.
Their expected goal share is still mediocre given the standard they’ve set, but at least it looks like Jason Robertson is starting to level up. He has seven points in his last five games while Roope Hintz has seven in his last six. Joe Pavelski has a whopping nine (!) during that same stretch. Granted, some of the deeper numbers are less kind: since November 20th Robertson is 10th in individual scoring chances (behind, wait for it…Esa Lindell), and 12th in high danger chances, but he’s 4th in overall shot attempts. It hasn’t been a Picasso but it’s something at least.
Because the game was won so early I don’t know that we learned much other than that the Lightning can’t keep pucks out of the net right now. However, a win’s a win and it was good to see the top line dominate for the night. Thanks to everything going on with all things Matt Duchene and Matt Duchene-adjacent, they haven’t been the top story, but they are still the tip of the victory green spear.
Of course, that wasn’t the top story.
Nils Lundkvist scratched; and so it begins (ends?)
“The NHL is not a development league.”
Then why did you trade for a player with more AHL games (34) than NHL ones (25)? That’s my question. I’m gonna ignore the whole discussion about development and just ask that one simple thing: if you’re not a development league, then why did you trade for a player who was not fully developed?
I was watching L.A. versus Colorado last night. The Kings don’t have any superstar forwards (although Quinton Byfield has officially become a cheat code). Nonetheless, they looked like a better rush team against a team that defined the modern rush attack at times. Why? Because everyone on their backend can move (even Gavrikov, despite his label as a stay-at-home type).
I’ve said this before but this is what bothers me about Joel Hanley: not that he’s bad, but that he’s not an impact player. Conversely, here’s LA’s bottom pair and their shot impacts above a replacement-level defender.
Rather than sit here on my soapbox and rant about development, this to me is the essence of the problem: Dallas’ defensive depth is not Cup quality. With Lundkvist not being trusted, and Hanley in the rotation, Dallas now has two seventh defensemen.
As for Lundkvist himself, I’ll do a deep dive later. It’s possible that Nill and his scouts made a mistake. It’s possible that this is another bump in the road for Lundkvist, who seemed to be making strides and may still become what Stars fans hoped. It’s unlikely given Dallas’ trajectory as a contender, but still. One healthy scratch doesn’t mark the end of an era. And there are cheap solutions if they want someone more than just Hanley going into the playoffs. Cough, Ethan Bear.
Whatever the case, this isn’t on Lundkvist. After all, the “NHL is not a development league.”
Then he shouldn’t have been here.
Evgenii Dadonov in the doghouse?
I had a lot to say in my Another 32 Thoughts Season Preview, as I usually do, but this one didn’t fly with a lot of people Re: the Dadonov signing.
I’m not here for an “I told you so” because there’s a lot in that preview I was wrong about too. Plus, I want to see Dadonov work out for this team because I think he’s still valuable. I don’t even think he’s looked all that bad either. However, it’s what tends to happen with older players. His offense and playmaking are still there but his defense and finishing have gone belly up.
Chances are, Dadonov will draw back in this evening, and we’ll forget it. Dadonov strikes me as the kind of player to respond well to something like this given that he’s already experienced the worst of this type of scratching, and also that he just seems like a mentally tough kind of dude.
However, the real story to watch is the Benn-Johston-Dadonov line as a whole. In some ways I wonder how much of the scratch is less about Dadonov so much as it is about getting that line going. They’ve been outscored seven to six, and outchanced 91 to 81 (shots on net). Speaking of!
Is Ty Dellandrea back in the everyday rotation?
Probably not, but the Dadonov scratch makes it clear that a resume doesn’t make a player. It makes me wish I had done some film room analysis on Dellandrea during the summer, because he doesn’t get enough credit for what he did on the Johnston line.
In fact, it’s worth emphasizing what separates Dellandrea from Dadonov, and whether or not the Johnston’s line lack of defense has a root cause.
To clarify, Benn’s defense has been the biggest issue on that line but Dadonov hasn’t helped a whole lot. These RAPM charts don’t capture Dadonov’s playmaking, which is the biggest part of his game, but it does emphasize what Dellandrea has managed to become: a strong defensive winger.
To make this fair (and closer) let’s look at the same comparison, but from last season.
This graph is probably a better representation of their respective games:
Dadonov with a much stronger impact on shot quality and slightly stronger impact on shot attempts.
Dellandrea with a slightly stronger impact on goal differential, and a much stronger impact on shot quality against.
Granted, I don’t expect Dellandrea to take Dadonov’s spot long term. But I do think it’s interesting how the line that worked most of last season with young legs, but was abandoned to make way for a veteran presence is now abandoning its veteran presence for young legs. It’s a premature reminder that not everything needs to be spackled with resumes. Still, let’s hope this is just a temporary bump in the road for Evgenii.
Tampa Bay Preview
Tampa will be out for revenge because that’s how hungry teams behave. And they’ll get to do in their own barn. Meanwhile, Dallas gets to add to their franchise road record as they begin a stretch that will include Tampa today, then Florida and Washington.
Despite the touchdown+ the Stars puts on Tampa, they still grade as the inferior offensive team. In fact, you might be surprised to learn that the Stars still aren’t grading out like an elite unit. They rank 19th (!) in expected goals-for at even strength, right alongside the bizarre Maple Leafs.
Still, it’s a funny matchup for its symmetry: Tampa with the offense, Dallas with the defense. The big story will be the monitoring of the Lundkvist and Dadonov situations. However, in the grand scheme of things, the biggest story will be whether Nill can work some cap jiu jitsu to improve the blueline.
If Dadonov is as much of a luxury player as he seems to the forward core and if the front office wants to take some time developing Nils Lundkvist, does a Dadonov for Barrie @ 50% retained (clean cap swap) make sense?
Agree the defense needs help now if they are shelving Lundkvist. I like Hanley but he is a 7D, nothing more on an elite team. I also believe (and disagree with) that Nill spending the capital required to get Tanev is probably nil so other options must be explored. You mentioned Ethan Bear so I am wondering if you have information on his status regarding returning from surgery? Also, any thoughts on Sean Walker from the Flyers as some pundits are touting him in potential trades?