The Dallas Stars Shouldn't Sign Matt Dumba: A Measured Response.

For Stars fans, there's no love lost for Matt Dumba, but humor me: would it really be that bad?

If your first thought after seeing Matt Dumba’s name is “after what he did?!” then stop reading. This might not be the article for you. No, what Dumba did to Joe Pavelski is not irrelevant. I was there too. No, it’s not because I think your outrage is misplaced. Rather, it’s because there’s no categorical imperative to highlight Dumba any more than Jamie Benn after what he did to Mark Stone; or Jacob Trouba after what he did to Timo Meier; or Alex Pietrangelo after what he did to Leon Draisaitl. My point here is not to dismiss what happened, but to accept the skeletons every team has in their closet thanks to a league that encourages building a collection of them.

I hope I was convincing just then. If not, we’ll agree to disagree. Truth is, I’ve always liked Dumba. I’m a big fan of players who don’t conveniently fall into pre-selected stereotypes about the players they should be. Offensive defensemen, for example, are supposed to be creative, fast, and agile. But not Dumba. In his prime, Dumba was powerful, short, and confrontational.

Here was a player who could reliably give you double digits in goals from the backend, but could also legally hurt some people (and illegally, granted). Like I said. I have a soft spot for these players. Miro Heiskanen fits that bill: a stay-at-home defenseman with wings instead of skates. The problem with Dumba, unfortunately, is that he’s no longer that guy.

Not after tearing his pectoral muscle during a fight with Matthew Tkachuk.

Dumba would describe the sensation and fear of his injury long after his pec had ruptured.

With Dallas having been linked to him during free agency, I figured this would be worth revisiting. If Dumba is a more interesting name than usual, it’s because he’s the only name left on what was already a slim UFA class. Also, it’s hard to gauge where he fits into the conversation. He can go one of two ways: cash out now on a long term deal to some bottom feeder like Anaheim or Arizona (his link to Arizona is real, as his trainer lives there), or go to a contender and make chicken scratch. But most importantly, it’s also hard to gauge his game. Could he rebound? Or could it get even worse? Well, let’s define “worse.”

Travis Yost wrote a scathing takedown of Dumba’s abrupt career nosedive. Travis is one of my favorites, along with one of my inspirations when it comes to how to approach (and communicate) analysis, so please give his article a read for more context. To add to Travis’ argument, I thought it’d be interesting to look at his Wins Above Replacement from year to year.

There’s no mistaking this one. At one point he was worth four extra points in the standings. Now he’ll cost you four extra points in the standings.

Data per Evolving-Hockey

“There’s a ‘but’ in there isn’t there?” Yes. I’ll cop to the fact that I’ a bit biased here: I’ve always liked Dumba, and I’ve always wanted someone competent next to Heiskanen.

But…I’m not sure WAR data and goal differentials are all there is to the story. For one, Dumba is still relatively young. He turns 29 in July, so a potential one or two-year deal for pennies on the dollar for a top four defensemen sounds pretty damn good. The biggest plus for a potential Dumba signing is a potential partnership with Heiskanen. At some point the Stars will have to get serious about giving him a real partner. Makar has Devon Toews, Ekblad has Gustav Forsling, Theodore has Brayden McNabb, Pietrangelo has Alec Martinez, Hedman had Erik Cernak, etc. Not all of them are great, but they’re all serious players. Not a single Polak or Nearing-40 Suter among them.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Heiskanen had his biggest year to date playing mostly on his strongside with Colin Miller. In fact, because I get so tired of this narrative that Suter’s minutes are “irreplaceable” here it is again: Heiskanen’s biggest year to date happened on his strongside, with a right shot defender.

One more time for the cheap seats: Heiskanen’s biggest year to date happened on his strongside, with a right shot defender. Yes, correlation is not causation but we’ve been through this. Heiskanen sees a real, tangible uptick in offense on his weakside. And defense pairs both playing their strongside see a real, tangible uptick in shot impacts. After all the quarter pounders Heiskanen’s been given, Dumba looks like a NY strip steak by comparison.

So there’s one half of my argument. Here’s the second part: I don’t think Dumba is washed. Yes, he’s been a net negative over the last several years. However, his defensive game has seen a modest rebound. In fact, last year he set a career high in even strength goals prevented above a replacement level defender. In fact, I would say that his defense is back, broadly speaking. (This makes intuitive sense since his injury took away his shooting strength whereas he still has his legs.)

Data per Evolving-Hockey

However, looking at goal impacts is fairly lazy; especially for the purposes of our point of Dumba as more than a warm body. I often talk about Corey Sznajder’s work precisely because no careful analysis can be constructed without the best metrics for performance. Tracking data gets us closest to accurately assessing player performance instead of player impacts (i.e Corsi, xG, etc) IMO.

(Important) Sidebar: You might be asking “what’s the difference?” Good question. To me player impact is a matter of value whereas performance is a matter of fact. Value can be subject to interpretation and often changes. The C+ you got in chemistry is an example of value. However, it doesn’t measure the breadth of your understanding, or the depth of your work. You may have studied hard, or not at all for that C+. Either way, it doesn’t get to the bottom of how or why you missed the questions you did. If you’re a defenseman and you had a 45 percent CF for the night, that’s a poor grade. But if you forced attackers into dumping the puck in, and exited the zone at a high rate, I’d call that a good defensive performance.

In that respect, from 2016 to 2021 we have a broad assessment of his performance thanks to Corey’s diligent work.

Even when his shot impacts were at their lowest, the performance — specifically as a defensemen with strong gap control, and strong legs to shorten the neutral zone — was there.

In fact, two years ago may have been one of his best in terms of performance as a controller of all three zones.

And yes, he took a step back this year by comparison.

However, he still seems pretty competent to me. If anything, the early portion of his career might have masked what kind of defender he really was; less of a Shea Weber type, and more of an Anton Stralman type.

Sidebar: It took me forever, but I’m just now realizing that’s who new defensive Stars prospect Aram Minnetian reminds me of — Dumba.

If the Stars went into a rematch with Vegas, and iced the following blueline, I feel like the Stars would be in much better shape.

Heiskanen — Dumba

Harley — Hakanpaa

Lindell — Lundkvist

(I’m ignoring Suter because the blueline so easily fits into place when you just pretend like the organization will hold him as accountable for his mistakes as Dallas’ prospects.)

Dallas has an easy path towards getting him too. His name is Radek Faksa, and I’ve outlined why. Dump his cap somewhere, sweeten the pot with a pick if need be, and trade it in for Dumba’s one-year contract. It’s another move that wouldn’t require assets, and you don’t need to entertain the sensitive topic of trading Mason Marchment (which, for the record, I don’t advocate; at least not yet). Exchanging a fourth line center for a top four right-shot defender seems like a no-brainer.

Of course; if that’s what Dumba still is. Just like with Tyler Seguin, it’s possible Dumba’s best days are behind him. Athletes are what they do, and when their body doesn’t allow them to do what they used to, it’s harder for them to occupy that old identity. Also, how much does Dumba move the needle? Would signing Dumba just be the same as everything else Dallas has been doing in recent years that I’ve criticized — a lukewarm addition to a blueline that needs new hotness instead? Maybe.

Robert wrote a really importance piece yesterday for D Magazine, and it’s something that doesn’t get stressed enough: the Stars are relying on a very rigid dichotomy of young, burgeoning players with old, fading ones. It’s a mixture that is just as likely to progress (young players getting better) as it is to regress (fading players forcing the young ones to carry more weight). Would Dumba be just another warm body to fill the aging veteran pyre?

I’m not willing to say one way or the other whether it’s the right move. Perhaps Dallas waits until the deadline, and makes the move for Chris Tanev. That would be pretty sweet. But by then you’re probably giving up heavy assets whereas Dumba only costs money.

Is that all he’s worth, though?