The Other Stars: A Dallas Stars prospect report masquerading as an Antonio Stranges report

This week's prospect report, brought to you by The Lost Boys.

Part of what I love about following prospects is the raw unpredictability. I didn’t really “get into” draft nerdery until 2012. So I saw up close the development of one, John Klingberg; an afterthought at the time he was drafted, but who was anything but by the time he started lighting it up in Cedar Park. The draft is not a crapshoot¹. It’s somewhere between a stock ticker, and shopping for clothes. It’s the development of players who need a lot of development in order to become NHL-caliber players that is a crapshoot. And right now, development is hitting some of these players ahead of the curve.

That’s what brings us to Brad Gardiner, Dallas’ third-round pick from 2023. After scoring three goals this weekend, he’s now on pace for 73 points with eight goals and five assists through 12 games. That’s a 24-point jump from his previous high of 49 for the Ottawa 67’s last year. That also puts him on track to score 45 goals. Still just 19 years of age!

But let’s slow it down. Let’s slow it way down. I’m always haunted — kind of like the entire Islanders organization — by Michael Dal Colle. Picked fifth overall in 2014 after scoring 95 points in 67 games for the OHL’s Oshawa Generals, the 6’3 power forward went over names like William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Kevin Fiala, Dylan Larkin, Travis Sanheim, Alex Tuch, David Pastrnak, Nick Schmaltz, Adrian Kempe, and Jared McCann. He’s now playing in the DEL. I’ll never forget his highlights: in front of the night, deflections, tip-ins, chips, tap-ins, but always in front of the net; always…in front of the net.

“Well that’s how you score. You get to the dirty areas.” Thank you, Alfred North Whitehead. Yes, net-front presence is important. But it can’t be the only way for a forward to score; at least not an elite, or impactful one. Besides, if we were to break down the numbers, how much more likely — from a mathematical standpoint — is a player to generate a high danger chance from the outer slot than say, the inner slot? For the best forwards, it doesn’t really matter. Which makes sense: it’s not like you can stand in front of the net all the time. (Although Josh Anderson tries.)

Do I think Gardiner is another Dal Colle? Obviously not. For one, Dal Colle might be the biggest bust of the last 10 years.² Gardiner was just a scratch-off in the third round. Even as players, they’re nothing alike. But Gardiner’s scoring kind of reminds me of that single-layered approach. His goals are mostly coming from set-ups from others, and while his teammates Bode Stewart and Dalyn Wakely don’t have a lot of name value, they are at or near point-per-game paces just like Gardiner. What Gardiner is doing is impressive. But so far, a lot of what he’s doing boils down to “getting open” which is a good thing; but it can’t be the only thing, and right now, I’m kind of waiting for those other things.

I apologize for the lengthy preamble, but sometimes I need to have this convoluted conversation out loud. In part because I don’t actually know, nor do I consider my eyes that much of a clue. How much of what I’m seeing is influenced by the standard expectation of a former third-round pick, or the lack of standout skills, and what the usual outcomes are for players picked in Gardiner’s range? That’s the question.

Programming note: As these are relatively time-consuming, I’m gonna alternate between sticking these behind the paywall, and Corey’s stats reports. Same deal though: three posts per week, one paid. On weeks where I write two free posts, both will be behind the paywall. Just saying.

Lian Bichsel

There’s not a lot to add here. Below is a highlight of Bichsel being the Gorilla from Olten. Outside of the usual, his pairing with Luke Krys reminds me of the old Texas crew with Esa Lindell and Stephen Johns. I’ve been trying to pay attention to Bichsel’s shot, because I feel like it’s underdiscussed, but when he shoots, it’s always a lot more accurate than I assume.

Again, whatever offense he’s able to generate is just gravy, given his profile. Outside of that, he’s doing what he does. Never more. Never less.

Emil Hemming

With Cole Beaudoin missing games, the top line has become two, top lines. Hemming is not as effective with Bode Stewart and Zachary Wigle, but one of the things that looks to be developing is his playmaking.

I thought that was some slick work with his back turned to his opponents. Playmaking was not part of his profile when he was drafted, but any truly good shooter at the NHL level needs to develop passing skills in order to make their shot more dangerous. I know that reads funny, but importance, deception, threatening in multiple ways — you get it.

I wouldn’t call Hemming a player with vision, per se. When we think of “vision” we think of players like Jason Spezza, and the ability to make plays with what’s not there. But positioning is just as important, and I love how Hemming starts this play with a neutral zone reload, which tells me he’s not just some north-south brute.

I’m trying to adjust my expectations of Hemming despite looking at the development of forwards I had ahead of him, like Teddy Stiga, Nikita Artamov, and Andrew Basha. It’s a bad, negative habit, I know, but I also find it worthwhile for future analysis. I can see why Hemming ended up going ahead of them, but we also have yet to see him leverage his size. I’d like to see him crash the net more, because so far, his play has been too along-the-perimeter for my liking. Nonetheless, one step at a time. He’s developing other parts of his game, and for that, I’m excited.

Antonio Stranges

Woooo! This is gonna be good.

Boy did Stranges have himself a weekend. Two games, one goal, and three assists, including a deja vu scenario where he connected with Arttu Hyry on almost identical plays on the power play. However, those plays were not the most interesting shifts from Stranges this weekend. I really loved this shift in how absurdly it distills his game in its most uncut form.

What I find amusing is that Stranges gets the puck on two occasions almost by accident. At his absolutely best, he reminds me of competitive El Fuertes from Street Fighter IV. Stranges doesn’t really play hockey, rather he lets hockey play him.

He makes effective split second decisions, which prompts the question: why can’t he do that even just a sliver of the time, without trying to make a big show of it? Because most of the time, it’s stuff like this.

Stranges isn’t comfortable unless he’s making The Big Play, and that’s part of what makes him so fun to watch. It’s also great to see him rewarded for his heroics, even if everything mentioned above is precisely what informs his problems. However, as I’m always quick to note, Stranges also works hard. He’s not just there for the offensive heroics, but heroic efforts in general.

Watching Stranges is a great example of how prospect reports can less of an eye test, and more of a Rorschach test, except instead of inkblots, it’s quick passes and weird-looking skating strides. My instinct is to say that Stranges is a talented player benefiting from an achievement gap. Up against teams that can’t punish his worst habits more consistently, he has room to freelance in the AHL. He’s your classic peculiar player, and peculiar players don’t earn coach’s trust. Which is why he didn’t start the first two games. For most players, you can leave it at that. “Talented player. Just not an everyday NHLer.”

But then stuff like this happens, and he totally redeems himself.

I have no idea what to expect from Stranges and that’s part, if not all, the fun. Not even Stranges knows what to expect from Stranges. Most importantly, neither do his opponents.

I promise #StrangesWatch will be a thing moving forward, whether he ends up in the box score or not.

Blueline notebook

Aram Minnetian is still at a point per game (four games, one goal, three assists) after picking up apple (I re-watched the play twice and still don’t understand how Minnetian got credit with it) on a slick Teddy Stiga goal. Again, this Boston College team is an absolute juggernaut. It would be actively hard for Minnetian not to pick up points with the forward group they have leading the way. It’s the little things he does well that make him a solid bet, especially for a fourth rounder. (Minnetian starts the play up top on the right.)

Christian Kyrou is quietly having a hell of a season. At least in terms of production (five points through six games). Everything he needs to work on to be a viable option in an NHL universe are all things he still lacks. But he’s been playing confidently with the puck, which is good.

I didn’t notice Tristan Bertucci as much this week versus last week, but he did pick up some points, putting him on pace for 40 points through a full season. (This would be a lower point total than his previous two seasons, but Bertucci is a fascinating contradiction, having offensive skills, but leveraging them purely for defense.)

Forward notebook

A kind reader wondered why I didn’t bring up Justin Hryckowian from the last report, to which I reply: you’re right! For those that don’t know, Hryckowian is up to eight points in just six contests, which would put him on a pace well above Mavrik Bourque’s from last season with 96 (!). Honestly, I have no excuse.

Hryckowian really is an interesting player by any definition. He’s hard to notice, literally. He’s 5’10 and less than 180lbs, which has to be charitable. I don’t know if it’s his skating stride that makes him look shorter than he is, but Hryckowian plays such a subtle game, and so effortlessly, it’s hard to pinpoint what allows him to be effective. He’s the anti-Stranges, fueled by nuance and detail, and yet like Stranges, he’s a point-per-game. I never saw Hryckowian play for Northeastern University, where he was the captain, and scored 43 points in 32 games in his final year. It’s yet another savvy college pickup by Dallas, who really looked like they’d struggle to replace Bourque and Logan Stankoven, but haven’t skipped a beat with their newlook offense via committee approach.

I’ll be keeping a closer eye on him as the year progresses, and promise not to overlook him. Arttu Hyry started the year pretty quiet, but two goals this weekend have him up to five points in six games.

Stack Note

I don’t use the chat feature as much as I’d like, but I invite others to be a part of our mailbags (I’ll be doing one this week) and Gameday Threads.

1. I nominate we retire this phrase altogether. Except for teams who are bad at drafting. They’re allowed to continue using it.

2. I don’t count Nolan Patrick given his injuries, and same, to a lesser extent, with Olli Juolevi. Don’t look now but Alex Turcotte is looking like an everyday NHLer.