The silliness of The Athletic's Elias Lindholm trade proposal. And also, maybe its wisdom?

Lindholm for a 1st, Bourque, and Steel? lol. But also...

I’d like to think I’m a fairly fun-loving dude, but All-Star week doesn’t do it for me. Maybe it’s because hockey is run by pod people who don’t know how to communicate fun, or maybe it’s just me. Whatever the case, I’m happy for the people that find joy in it. As for me, just give me some doom metal, academic dry prose, and a prizefight. I told you: fun-loving!

If you’re a Stars fan and only a Stars fan you may be shocked to learn that hockey is still being played. St. Louis was in action against Columbus. The Blues are something else; what kind of something is anyone’s guess. A month ago you would have said it’s impossible for St. Louis to have as many points as L.A. but that’s exactly where they now find themselves

This doesn’t affect the Stars short term. Dallas still has 10 points distanced between them. Unless the Stars are attacked by some eldritch horror, the top three in the Central is the top three in the Central. But if Dallas finds their way into the top spot, the Blues have suddenly muddied the waters. St. Louis is not a matchup anyone should find scary. They rate poorly in terms of shot quality generated, and shot quality suppressed. But I do hate the idea of the Blues riding some silly PDO bender, forcing the top Central team into a potential matchup with LA — a team that generates shot quality at an elite level, and suppresses shot quality at an elite level but isn’t getting the puck. “What makes you think the Pacific top dog won’t be facing the first wild card slot?”

Because (IMO) Vancouver’s luck will run out. They’ll make the playoffs and maybe even make a real run, but they’ll slow down in the regular season enough for one of the Central teams to get top seed. The Kings are the last team anyone should want to play in the first round. (Yes, I remember Dallas’ win over LA. Long term it means the same to me as Philly’s performance over the Stars; great for the history books, but anything but a proper forecast.)

But at the end of the day, this is what Dallas will likely be looking at: a dance with one of two devils in Round 1.

About those Elias Lindholm proposals

I’m gonna do my best to avoid my baser instincts in response to the trade proposal from The Athletic about Lindholm for a Dallas 2024 1st rounder, Mavrik Bourque (yes that Mavrik Bourque), and Sam Steel. Especially since I think Corey Pronman and Julian McKenzie do quality work (I’ve long been a fan of the CJ show). Let’s start with the real essence of the proposal: is Lindholm any good?

Picked fifth overall in 2013, Lindholm was never seen as anything more than a strong two-way center for many years. And he more or less delivered straight away with the Carolina Hurricanes. (I sometimes wonder if Lindholm is the comp for where Nolan Patrick’s career would have ended up if not for injuries.) So why is Lindholm seen as this potential eight million dollar center?

Right place, right time, right linemates. When you look at his career net rating (as measured in wins), he was kind of a small timer at first. Then the Calgary trade happened.

So what did Calgary offer that Carolina didn’t? Johnny Gaudreau. Lindholm spent functionally all of his 2018-2019 season with Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. That peak in the 21’22 season? That was the Gaudreau-Matthew Tkachuk year.

I do think there’s a separate rabbit hole we can fall down about what these charts mean. For example, Matt Duchene never hit the value of eight extra points in the standings for his team (the way Lindholm did at his peak) until his 40-goal season with Nashville when he was moved to wing. Put the right talent with the right players, and their shift-to-shift value doesn’t always skyrocket. Lindholm got a rare opportunity, and made the most of it, so that’s a credit to him. I do think he’s a solid player. But I think we can safely assume he’s not some 80-point two way pivot. And not just because his current pace of 32 points would place him eighth on the Stars’’ roster — or sixth among Dallas forwards capable of playing center (Joe Pavelski and Wyatt Johnston being the centers currently at wing). Let Colorado or New York Rangers make that mistake.

I want to skip the obvious: The Athletic’s proposal is a donkshow. Let’s leave it at that.

What’s crazier?

However, as a fellow donk, I want to propose my own silliness: would adding a quality forward at the cost of adding a defensemen really be the craziest thing in the world? Don’t [at] me what I don’t already know about Dallas’ defense. We know it’s imperfect. What I want to know from you, the Stars fan, is how you weigh the following risk assessment: could the benefit of adding more offense outweigh the cost of leaving the current blueline intact?

It’s not what I would personally do, but outside of Chris Tanev, it’s not like the market is ripe with impact players. In fact, the defense market is pretty much shit. Ilya Lyubushkin, a smaller, angrier Hakanpaa? Tyson Barrie, an older, more expensive Lundkvist? Given Philly’s recent skid, it’s certainly possible for them to sell everyone off between Walker, Ristolainen, and Seeler. But they’re also in the ugly ass Metro, a full four points ahead of an Islanders held together by duct tape and Sorokin, and five points ahead of Pittsburgh’s power play abyss, and a New Jersey team that can’t stay healthy OR get good goaltending. Just saying; they can sell belief to ticket buyers, and to themselves.

A digression: I’m ignoring Noah Hanifan since he plays the left side — honestly I don’t know why people keep mentioning him. Even if you’re a skeptic of the conventional wisdom of handedness, four left-handed defenders in the top four would have to be a playoff team first.

It’s worth asking how much of Dallas’ blueline can be masked by the new superduo. If you follow me on Twitter you know I don’t like it as a long term solution. The real question is whether this year’s market of defensemen is the time to upset that newly established order.

Like I said. I don’t ultimately agree with this approach. But if the market sucks, and you still want to make the team better, what’s wrong with a forward? With two lines ostensibly entrenched, is it crazy to upgrade the position between Benn and Pavelski? Sam Steel has been fantastic, and I don’t even have a good suggestion here. If you have the opportunity to make the team better, regardless of position, what’s wrong with making the team better?

What I want to emphasize is that I can see the logic of further leveraging Dallas’ strengths in order to offset their weaknesses rather than trying to fix their weaknesses. Besides, Dallas has more than one weak link. Nill is not gonna replace multiple spots on the blueline.

I’ll leave you with this in the comments: what player WOULD you give up a 1st, Bourque, and Steel for? Players on the trade board only.