Enjoyed this entire article. Love the point about the impact of Seguin’s injury vs Ovi’s. The comparison between Dallas and Vegas is not apples to apples IMO, as Dallas has 4 (5 last night) rookies playing and Vegas that year had a ton of injuries, but it speaks to excuses and underperformance. Dallas lacks something this year and I think it’s on the players to step up and seize control of game moments.
Thanks David. Kind of feels like a mixture of everything, right? Kind of wondering now, if there's any correlation between power play success and contendership. Is a power play more important than a PK? What's the playoff record of teams with good versus bad PP units, etc?
David , thanks for a well thought out article on the current state of the Stars . Winning will cure a lot of things as we know . That Vegas did not hesitate to divest themselves of DeBoer et al certainly suggests that their analytics department was well aware of PP performance ! History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it Surely Rhymes. Now , the players have the responsibility to execute the plan …… BUT it is apparent to some degree that the greater problem ( not all ) lies with the architects of this PP Plan
I was disappointed to see Benn back on the top unit. Also, it seemed like they went through the motions on the final four minute power play, putting players like Sam Steel on it. Should have been the perfect time to say "blowout or not, we're gonna score on this power play come hell or high water."
Great article today! The point that really stood out to me while reading was player usage. Seguin played well because him, Duchesne and Marchment have been consistently together for the last couple of seasons. That's a big deal when it comes to line dynamics. Johnston and Stankoven went ftom consistent lines to playing all over the lineup. Bourque's getting the same treatment. Just when things seem to be starting to click, PDB turns the blender on and it's 52-card pickup with the lines again giving me unpleasant Ruffles flashbacks.
As far as Heiskanen and Harley, again that's coaching. Those 2 have the skills to be a lot more effective on the atrack. The fact they aren't screams out that coaching has put an anchor on them to stay back.
Yea I was disappointed to see Bourque taken off the top unit. I understand that Dadonov has been playing great, but his game lends itself to freelancing heroic efforts. Bourque needs all the quality experience he can get. Felt like a narrow-minded fix, but what do I know?
I like the comparison to Vegas. A team that went and got Petroangelo, Stone, Eichel, Pacherety (now gone), and last year Hannafin and Hertl.
I like your analysis. Robo looked like he could be a top tier scorer. Will he be again? We can only hope. Hintz could be considered upper level, but not top level offensively. The question is, Can the Stars really compete against teams that have TOP level offensive talent? Certainly not when they aren’t at their best. Or do they need to go get someone with Seguin’s cap $? Like Vegas has…
In the playoffs, I think it's harder for teams with more players of varying qualities of good, to beat teams with only a few players who have specific qualities of great.
looking at the Goalie graphic/analysis, surprising where Swayman is but then Boston is not doing well in front of him....What's also surprising is where Dostal is - that is amazing considering the Ducks right now. what a bargain - $800k for him.
I believe that Helleybuyck is the mystery there. He can absolutely steal games and therefore series. Winnipeg may be a sincere contender after all is said and done. He is that good.
This was great but maybe that's just because I agree with 99% of it. The only mild take I have is that the team is probably not due for any regression -- at the team level, I don't see any expected vs results or luck driven stats (PDO etc) that are out of whack.
In my heart, I agree with everything you've said. In my head, I refuse to believe that the Stars are this bad, as a group, but that they need an injection of energy and flair to bring their energy up.
This team seemed like it was having fun the past two seasons. They don't look like they are enjoying the game and the success as much. They look like a team that is on that mental cusp of falling apart because they've gone so close to being in the battle for the Cup.
This is why I believe that this season is the best possible scenario for the Stars to take a step forward and inject some drive into this team. Patrik Laine for me is the best option, which of course means he will in no way be a Dallas Stars player. I truly believe that Dallas could hit Montreal with a top 3 rounds pick and a guy like Bourque and maybe a guy with an intriguing nature, like Antonio Stranges. In addition, if they could get Montreal to retain a decent amount of salary, it wouldn't even really affect the Stars ability to do things next season.
At some point a team has to decide if they want to win with whom they have, and I think we've reached that peak. It may be Benner and Duchene's last chance to compete for a Cup *inserting edit* with Dallas.
I'm just tired of 30 years of watching the Stars almost climb the mountain to the top, just to have to retreat back for a few years.
Hockey is the only sport that I just can't get enough of anymore, and I'm feeling like the hope is dwindling for this season...
It's not all doom and gloom for me, but it's feeling at least a little darker than it was at the beginning of the year.
« However, maybe the real question is whether they’re a good team in an improved division (?). Or maybe not. Maybe the real question is whether or not good teams can falter, and perhaps even fail (?). »
For me, that is the real question. After going to the Conference Final two years in a row, are we now a team still on the upside, or are we a team in a slight decline while the other teams are on the upside?
IMHO, our real window for the Cup was last year. Nill just needed to get another right D like a clone of Matt Roy and we would have beat the Oilers.
Now, it’s a bigger hill to climb. We need a puck moving D, some offensive power and grit.
The cost of getting those types of assets will be too high for Nill. My guess is for minor improvement and the hope that « anything can happen if you make the playoffs »
I said last yearthattheStars are only as good as their goalie. This year I said the Stars are only as good as their goalie. I still believe that. If it the defense in front of him them make a defense change. Bish has looked good, Lyubushkin has been the best of the defensive offseason signs. You throw In Harley, Miro and Lyhdell and that makes five usable defensemen. We have to have another top two or four defenseman even if you play him on the third pair. Now I don’t know who on the Stars is responsible for assistant coaches assignments but they have to look back at Spott’s history with the power play. I may be as easy as changing your plan to match your players instead of the other way around.
Do what Vegas has done in the past ??? …. Maybe not such a bad Idea …..question is always the cost … but Vegas’ operating style has been successful ( while seeming vicious and uncaring re: acquiring and letting players go ) .
Honestly, I think Dallas actually has the better players for a top unit than Dallas. So it's more damning IMO, at least to coaching, that they can't get more out of them than what Vegas is getting from players like Dorofeyev, Hertl and Theodore.
Enjoyed this entire article. Love the point about the impact of Seguin’s injury vs Ovi’s. The comparison between Dallas and Vegas is not apples to apples IMO, as Dallas has 4 (5 last night) rookies playing and Vegas that year had a ton of injuries, but it speaks to excuses and underperformance. Dallas lacks something this year and I think it’s on the players to step up and seize control of game moments.
Thanks David. Kind of feels like a mixture of everything, right? Kind of wondering now, if there's any correlation between power play success and contendership. Is a power play more important than a PK? What's the playoff record of teams with good versus bad PP units, etc?
David , thanks for a well thought out article on the current state of the Stars . Winning will cure a lot of things as we know . That Vegas did not hesitate to divest themselves of DeBoer et al certainly suggests that their analytics department was well aware of PP performance ! History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it Surely Rhymes. Now , the players have the responsibility to execute the plan …… BUT it is apparent to some degree that the greater problem ( not all ) lies with the architects of this PP Plan
I was disappointed to see Benn back on the top unit. Also, it seemed like they went through the motions on the final four minute power play, putting players like Sam Steel on it. Should have been the perfect time to say "blowout or not, we're gonna score on this power play come hell or high water."
Great article today! The point that really stood out to me while reading was player usage. Seguin played well because him, Duchesne and Marchment have been consistently together for the last couple of seasons. That's a big deal when it comes to line dynamics. Johnston and Stankoven went ftom consistent lines to playing all over the lineup. Bourque's getting the same treatment. Just when things seem to be starting to click, PDB turns the blender on and it's 52-card pickup with the lines again giving me unpleasant Ruffles flashbacks.
As far as Heiskanen and Harley, again that's coaching. Those 2 have the skills to be a lot more effective on the atrack. The fact they aren't screams out that coaching has put an anchor on them to stay back.
Yea I was disappointed to see Bourque taken off the top unit. I understand that Dadonov has been playing great, but his game lends itself to freelancing heroic efforts. Bourque needs all the quality experience he can get. Felt like a narrow-minded fix, but what do I know?
I like the comparison to Vegas. A team that went and got Petroangelo, Stone, Eichel, Pacherety (now gone), and last year Hannafin and Hertl.
I like your analysis. Robo looked like he could be a top tier scorer. Will he be again? We can only hope. Hintz could be considered upper level, but not top level offensively. The question is, Can the Stars really compete against teams that have TOP level offensive talent? Certainly not when they aren’t at their best. Or do they need to go get someone with Seguin’s cap $? Like Vegas has…
In the playoffs, I think it's harder for teams with more players of varying qualities of good, to beat teams with only a few players who have specific qualities of great.
looking at the Goalie graphic/analysis, surprising where Swayman is but then Boston is not doing well in front of him....What's also surprising is where Dostal is - that is amazing considering the Ducks right now. what a bargain - $800k for him.
I think Hellebuyck's presence might be the most fascinating of all. Also the single best example of how bad Winnipeg would be otherwise.
so true - I feel that Winnipeg will fade at the end
I believe that Helleybuyck is the mystery there. He can absolutely steal games and therefore series. Winnipeg may be a sincere contender after all is said and done. He is that good.
This was great but maybe that's just because I agree with 99% of it. The only mild take I have is that the team is probably not due for any regression -- at the team level, I don't see any expected vs results or luck driven stats (PDO etc) that are out of whack.
In my heart, I agree with everything you've said. In my head, I refuse to believe that the Stars are this bad, as a group, but that they need an injection of energy and flair to bring their energy up.
This team seemed like it was having fun the past two seasons. They don't look like they are enjoying the game and the success as much. They look like a team that is on that mental cusp of falling apart because they've gone so close to being in the battle for the Cup.
This is why I believe that this season is the best possible scenario for the Stars to take a step forward and inject some drive into this team. Patrik Laine for me is the best option, which of course means he will in no way be a Dallas Stars player. I truly believe that Dallas could hit Montreal with a top 3 rounds pick and a guy like Bourque and maybe a guy with an intriguing nature, like Antonio Stranges. In addition, if they could get Montreal to retain a decent amount of salary, it wouldn't even really affect the Stars ability to do things next season.
At some point a team has to decide if they want to win with whom they have, and I think we've reached that peak. It may be Benner and Duchene's last chance to compete for a Cup *inserting edit* with Dallas.
I'm just tired of 30 years of watching the Stars almost climb the mountain to the top, just to have to retreat back for a few years.
Hockey is the only sport that I just can't get enough of anymore, and I'm feeling like the hope is dwindling for this season...
It's not all doom and gloom for me, but it's feeling at least a little darker than it was at the beginning of the year.
« However, maybe the real question is whether they’re a good team in an improved division (?). Or maybe not. Maybe the real question is whether or not good teams can falter, and perhaps even fail (?). »
For me, that is the real question. After going to the Conference Final two years in a row, are we now a team still on the upside, or are we a team in a slight decline while the other teams are on the upside?
IMHO, our real window for the Cup was last year. Nill just needed to get another right D like a clone of Matt Roy and we would have beat the Oilers.
Now, it’s a bigger hill to climb. We need a puck moving D, some offensive power and grit.
The cost of getting those types of assets will be too high for Nill. My guess is for minor improvement and the hope that « anything can happen if you make the playoffs »
I said last yearthattheStars are only as good as their goalie. This year I said the Stars are only as good as their goalie. I still believe that. If it the defense in front of him them make a defense change. Bish has looked good, Lyubushkin has been the best of the defensive offseason signs. You throw In Harley, Miro and Lyhdell and that makes five usable defensemen. We have to have another top two or four defenseman even if you play him on the third pair. Now I don’t know who on the Stars is responsible for assistant coaches assignments but they have to look back at Spott’s history with the power play. I may be as easy as changing your plan to match your players instead of the other way around.
Really thoughtful tiers, sir. Nice job.
Thanks Geoff!
Do what Vegas has done in the past ??? …. Maybe not such a bad Idea …..question is always the cost … but Vegas’ operating style has been successful ( while seeming vicious and uncaring re: acquiring and letting players go ) .
Honestly, I think Dallas actually has the better players for a top unit than Dallas. So it's more damning IMO, at least to coaching, that they can't get more out of them than what Vegas is getting from players like Dorofeyev, Hertl and Theodore.