Watching The Spreadsheets: Any low profile, high-value players Dallas could target via trade or free agency?

There's always a flyer to be had.

I’m pretty cool with the roster I built. Seems like the feedback was mostly positive. It won’t earn me an NHL job, but I’ll keep dreaming anyway.

The exercise was less about building the right way, and more about shining a light in the right direction. The success of the Panthers has mutilated good faith debate into buckets of Sociopathic Grit or Bust. As if Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, St. Louis, and Washington won Cups exactly the same way. Yes, Florida has potential to be a real dynasty, but their success begins and ends with their ability to be better than their opponents on the ice. The disregard for player safety that the NHL isn’t interested in holding accountable is just extra.

In other words, I believe there’s a path Dallas can carve out for themselves. A path that other teams can aspire to. While questions about whether this core has what it takes to win are fair, I don’t believe we’re there yet, especially given the age of their best players. The Stars have lost to better teams. So that’s where you start: by being better.

Today is not about the core, though. It’s about the margins. It’s about names not really on people’s radar who can take over names like Colin Blackwell, Evgenii Dadonov, Matt Dumba, etc. What names are out there that’ll give you the most bang for your buck?

The UFA class is thin but it’s not with merit. Some players are on the trade block for reasons both good, bad, and in between. There’s no rhyme or reason here. This is light work on interesting names, for better or for worse. I’ll be using Jack Fraser’s hockey cards very liberally, so if you’re still unsure about how to read them, click the explainer card here.

Bowen Byram

A young, former top five pick who is only 24 and has a Cup? Why is Buffalo trying to get rid of him? Unfortunately it has a clear cut answer: he’s bad.

I know these cards aren’t meant for this type of black and white analysis. Given his pedigree, he hits a lot of notes I’ve been clamoring for: paired next to Bichsel (while a left-handed shot, Byram has quite a bit of experience playing his offside, both in Colorado as well as Buffalo), you get a super talented puck mover who has genuine playmaking chops, speed, and despite his youth — experience.

The main thing that scares me about Byram are his injuries. Between concussions and a few lower-body scares, I don’t know what to make of him. He’s also not exactly cheap, both in terms of surface costs, and the fact that Buffalo will want something of decent value in return. He scored 38 points last year, so the Sabres aren’t exactly selling low. I certainly love the idea in concept. But in practice, it would be a gamble.

Maveric Lamoureux

Lamoureux is not being shopped. There’s no reason why Utah wouldn’t want their prized prospect Dimitri Simishev next to their 6’7 smooth-skating defender on the bottom pair. But Lamoureux also spent most of the year with Tucson, suggesting they might not hang up if Dallas called and made an offer. As I always like to note about these, younger players tend to rate poorly with these. They factor in a lot of different metrics, including even-strength shots against; defense being something young players tend to struggle with the most. Lamourex…doesn’t have the problem.

We’re talking about a 15-game sample, so grain of salt and all that. But why wouldn’t you want to gamble on a player like this over someone like Nils Lundkvist? Not sure what Utah would want, but by all accounts they’re looking to make a hard push to make the playoffs. Unlike most also-rans, they appear primed to do so, tallying the most rush chances per game of any team in the regular season.

Nick Perbix

A 6’5 right-shot defender, analytics darling, a UFA and dirt cheap??? How is he even going to free agency?

Perbix hits all the right notes: big, rangy, can move moderately well for his size, loves to shoot, and can lay out even the toughest forwards. This isn’t some kind of Victor Hedman aftershave either. He was paired all season with Emil Lilleberg, who is a lot less good (hence his quality of teammate rating).

The catch is that he’s a late bloomer, and he’s only ever played bottom pair minutes. Unless Dallas wants to put him next to Esa Lindell, I don’t see the problem. This guy should be signed. Now. (Although I still like Jordan Spence on the bottom pair more.)

Nicholas Robertson

Okay so I lied when I wrote “low profile.” Robertson has been the source of constant debate in Toronto. As a smaller, faster, and less talented version of his brother, he just hasn’t found the coach’s trust.

I’m always wary of a player not earning a coach’s trust. It’s not because I don’t trust coaches, but because I don’t always trust the environment. Mavrik Bourque didn’t earn the coach’s trust, but was he bad? For that matter, was he worse than the players he was scratched over? Robertson only played three playoff games, and had more points than two forwards dressed in both rounds.

Getting back to the card, Robertson is a finisher. He’s not as good as his brother defensively, but he doesn’t rate near as poorly as is made out to be. It’s telling that his shot impacts are poor, which tells me he’s not a good possession forward — something Dallas needs. However, boy does he check all the right notes in transition.

Rush shots, rush passes, cycle offense — he kind of does it all in terms of details, and he’s done it playing with poor players in limited minutes. The big issue here is that Toronto will likely value him higher than ever with Mitch Marner gone for all intents and purposes.

For Dallas, the big issue is fit. Does he play on the third line? If so, he’ll just encounter the exact same problems he did in Toronto. He could theoretically slot in on the top line, which could be both hilarious and fun, with the Robertson brothers being one-two punches. The Needs Moar Toughness crowd won’t like that he’s undersized, but he’s scrappy, hits at an above average rate (see his hit percentile), and works hard from end to end. It’s not without risk, but put him a top-six environment, and his game screams the Next Carter Verhaeghe, or Jonathan Marchessault. While I don’t know his ceiling, I’m confident he’s a perennial 20-goal scorer in a proper top six. Unlike the rest of this cast, however, his cost would be pretty high for a player Toronto can never fit into the lineup consistently.

Michael Eyssimont

He likes to shoot fast, and skate fast. That’s kind of it.

Still, while his shooting doesn’t lead to goals, he’s strong on the forecheck, which makes him the perfect Colin Blackwell replacement if that’s what the Stars feel like they needed.

Justin Danforth

Danforth is not a big winger, but he plays heavy and has a strong possession profile despite not adding goals.

I’ve always liked his game, though. Pure dawg. He’s the perfect fourth liner, and in the theme of this week’s evenings — adds speed. It’s nothing earth-shattering, but if the Stars don’t want to take a chance on their AHLers, Danforth can give you a yeoman’s shift.

Joel Armia

It’s becoming a meme — the Finnish mafia — but if you’re gonna do it, you might as well do it all the way. Armia is clearly on the decline, but he’s a forward that adds size, and solid possession on the forecheck.

Another ideal fourth liner, with a little extra finish and a strong penalty killer.

Lukas Reichel

Reichel is a classic reclamation project. Despite being just 23 years old and perhaps rushed into an awful NHL squad like the Blackhawks, he already has two full seasons and change under the bright lights. What do the spreadsheets say? Nothing that good, unfortunately.

Speed, and some rush offense is all he really provides.

I wouldn’t be too hard on him though. Again, young players rarely look good on these, and also — he hasn’t been given much of a chance. Last season, he had some cameos with Connor Bedard, but it never stuck. This season, he spent pretty much all his time with Pat Maroon and Craig Smith. What exactly is a shooter/passer supposed to do with that? Nothing. And that’s what the end result was.

I’m not too fond of Reichel’s game, and wasn’t in 2020 either, especially at 17th overall. But I do think there’s a player lurking there. Across from Matej Blumel for a double dose of fourth line quickness and some finish sounds pretty sweet. But fourth liners need at least little crash and a little bang, and Reichel has neither.