Byram is intriguing to me much in the same way Lundkvist is intriguing to me. The ceiling feels like it hasn't been reached yet. Obviously as you explained they have different fits in the game.
I've always thought Baby Robo was worth a flier for his price. Seems like his floor is as a cheaper more offensive Blackwell at worst. Does he fit perfectly with Steel? Is he the amplifier in a Robo WyJo Robo line? If you have 1m why not find out?
One thing I've been thinking about, that may matter more for defensemen than forwards, is I'm not sure usage/role is fully accounted for in various WAR/sG metrics. They way most metrics account for teammates/competition/zone starts assumes those things all affect forwards and defensemen equally, and I think there are likely good reasons why that's not necessarily the case. I'll have to figure out a way to look at it, but it seems like there are way more defensemen who look good in a sheltered role and really struggle when moved up the lineup than forwards and vice versa.
I think Byram could be a good add as a third pairing guy, though at his salary that's a non-starter. I also think Perbix is risky further up the lineup for the inverse reason, though he's definitely worth taking a flyer on if he's cheap. I'd be real wary of slotting him into the top 4 though (I still think they should just bite the bullet and roll the 4 best defensemen that are already on the roster, even though they're all lefties).
Beyond that, Robertson's the only forward who moves the needle for me. From what I've read out of Toronto, they've had trouble putting him into a role. He plays like a scorer, but he's not well-rounded enough for top 6 minutes, and he doesn't fit the players they have on the third and fourth lines. Not sure how much credence to put into that, but he might not have that problem in Dallas. Unless they decide to go full gritensity this offseason (knock on wood).
I'd be fine with adding Armia too. I wanted the Stars to draft him in 2011, so it'd be fun if he ended up in Dallas eventually.
With so many more minutes, not to mention more minutes tied to one partner as opposed to two, along with a position tied so much to more than just shots - I feel like "isolating for impact" is too ambitious.
That's where I feel like Louis Boulet's work could help. Rather than isolate impact, perhaps the real way to figure them out is to isolate their chemistries. I.E. boosting the impact of others. Not sure if this makes any sense.
Ha, that makes total sense to me. I think the next big step in analytics is figuring out a way to use measurable fundamentals (i.e., skating, routes, board battles, passing/vision, getting in position to receive a pass, etc) to project WAR impact rather than just using past WAR. Louis’s stuff is really cool, I’m a big fan of what he’s trying to do with measuring chemistry impacts.
I’ve got a suspicion Florida and Carolina already have some way of doing this and that’s why so many of their acquisitions fit in so well. I would have said Tampa too, but some of their recent decisions have been bizarre.
I think it's worth mentioning that Reichel's primary asset is speed, and that Pat Maroon is the slowest player in the league. I'm convinced all the kid needs are linemates that can actually keep up with him and a change of scenery. He's a risk sure, but I'd be more than willing to take that risk for the right price
I think my issue with Reichel is that he would have been great next to say, Duchene and Seguin. Now who does he pair with? Steel and Benn? Bourque and Steel? The Stars don't really have a way to insulate him. Reichel's exactly the kind of dude that turns into gold in Florida.
It works for the others but not Robertson. I think Robertson would have been perfect on the Duchene-Seguin line. That's why I'm on preserving the top lines, and just letting the bottom six do what most bottom sixes do. It's been a nice luxury for the past several years to have such absurd depth, but I'm cool with a new path forward.
I love the take, that cup teams can be as much about the core as about the perimeter. One is more expensive and slower moving than the other, but that these ancillary pieces can be just as important in that they can be used to fill gaps or amplify the team philosophy. Remember how much we all envied the TB 3rd line? Even how Wyatt went from solid to Star 2 years ago.
The key here is these moves are force multipliers. Every ounce of energy teams have to spend on the bottom 6 frees up the top 6. Alternatively, these lines raid the castle while the top lines take all the attention. The best part is these guys are usually fairly cheap towards the cap.
Really could use a HC soon so that this team isn't trying to zig while he zags.
Kotkaniemi is such an odd dock. He's had the absolutely perfect scenario to step up his game in Carolina and still couldn't become more than a 30-point forward. For dirt cheap, as Dallas' third line center? Sure. He's big. He's Finnish. He's scrappy AF too, which he doesn't get credit for (check out his fights with Hagg and Cozens; dude knows what to do with a chingaso). But he'd just be a bigger Sam Steel. I think that's fine. I just don't know what players you're pairing him with that would elevate his offense.
I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Bourque's agent isn't prank calliing Nill every night and shouting "Trade me right f'ing now" into the phone. Dallas has no idea what to do with him and Stankoven last year because they didn't arrive as experienced 12 year vets. So why would he want to be back in Dallas eating nachos if he can go to a team who wants him and has some idea how to coach him up like Carolina with Stankoven.
I would not expect that signing Bourque would be on Top of the priorities list of Nill, but I would hope that signing him would come before signing Benn or overspending for Granlund and Duchene.
And my guess, as yours, is that his agent is just waiting for the Stars to qualify him, after which the offer sheets will just come naturally.
I'd say Bourque getting an offersheet is as likely as him getting a deal with term(5-8 years).
The professional body of work isn't their, but the potential is.
Seems like he's currently in Sam Steel in Anaheim territory, but Nill doesn't have the depth of talent in the minors, or waiting high end draft capital to let him walk for cheap.
Benn-Bourque running the 4th seems like a nice set to build off of going into next season.
Say it again for the 31 fanbases in the back: You may have to BEAT Florida, but you don’t have to BE Florida to win.
Byram is intriguing to me much in the same way Lundkvist is intriguing to me. The ceiling feels like it hasn't been reached yet. Obviously as you explained they have different fits in the game.
I've always thought Baby Robo was worth a flier for his price. Seems like his floor is as a cheaper more offensive Blackwell at worst. Does he fit perfectly with Steel? Is he the amplifier in a Robo WyJo Robo line? If you have 1m why not find out?
I dabble in the Maple Leafs circus, so the idea of running David’s “Nick Robertson could become Carter Verhaeghe” by them sounds like fun!
One thing I've been thinking about, that may matter more for defensemen than forwards, is I'm not sure usage/role is fully accounted for in various WAR/sG metrics. They way most metrics account for teammates/competition/zone starts assumes those things all affect forwards and defensemen equally, and I think there are likely good reasons why that's not necessarily the case. I'll have to figure out a way to look at it, but it seems like there are way more defensemen who look good in a sheltered role and really struggle when moved up the lineup than forwards and vice versa.
I think Byram could be a good add as a third pairing guy, though at his salary that's a non-starter. I also think Perbix is risky further up the lineup for the inverse reason, though he's definitely worth taking a flyer on if he's cheap. I'd be real wary of slotting him into the top 4 though (I still think they should just bite the bullet and roll the 4 best defensemen that are already on the roster, even though they're all lefties).
Beyond that, Robertson's the only forward who moves the needle for me. From what I've read out of Toronto, they've had trouble putting him into a role. He plays like a scorer, but he's not well-rounded enough for top 6 minutes, and he doesn't fit the players they have on the third and fourth lines. Not sure how much credence to put into that, but he might not have that problem in Dallas. Unless they decide to go full gritensity this offseason (knock on wood).
I'd be fine with adding Armia too. I wanted the Stars to draft him in 2011, so it'd be fun if he ended up in Dallas eventually.
Good point.
With so many more minutes, not to mention more minutes tied to one partner as opposed to two, along with a position tied so much to more than just shots - I feel like "isolating for impact" is too ambitious.
That's where I feel like Louis Boulet's work could help. Rather than isolate impact, perhaps the real way to figure them out is to isolate their chemistries. I.E. boosting the impact of others. Not sure if this makes any sense.
Ha, that makes total sense to me. I think the next big step in analytics is figuring out a way to use measurable fundamentals (i.e., skating, routes, board battles, passing/vision, getting in position to receive a pass, etc) to project WAR impact rather than just using past WAR. Louis’s stuff is really cool, I’m a big fan of what he’s trying to do with measuring chemistry impacts.
I’ve got a suspicion Florida and Carolina already have some way of doing this and that’s why so many of their acquisitions fit in so well. I would have said Tampa too, but some of their recent decisions have been bizarre.
I think it's worth mentioning that Reichel's primary asset is speed, and that Pat Maroon is the slowest player in the league. I'm convinced all the kid needs are linemates that can actually keep up with him and a change of scenery. He's a risk sure, but I'd be more than willing to take that risk for the right price
I think my issue with Reichel is that he would have been great next to say, Duchene and Seguin. Now who does he pair with? Steel and Benn? Bourque and Steel? The Stars don't really have a way to insulate him. Reichel's exactly the kind of dude that turns into gold in Florida.
would like to see Lamoreuax if for nothing else than having TWO mavericks on one team?!!!
I think Perbix would fit in well here and theres up side there....
Wyatt & the Robo Bros!!!!
Now That's what I call 2nd line Hockey!
Would you trade Mush to make it happen? (Maybe even retain if we can lock in a cheap deal with term.)
Does a third line with Nick Robertson-Bourque-Armia works?
I like Armia. He has some offensive chops, he is OK on the PK and he is hard on the boards. Seems like a good possession forward.
It works for the others but not Robertson. I think Robertson would have been perfect on the Duchene-Seguin line. That's why I'm on preserving the top lines, and just letting the bottom six do what most bottom sixes do. It's been a nice luxury for the past several years to have such absurd depth, but I'm cool with a new path forward.
I love the take, that cup teams can be as much about the core as about the perimeter. One is more expensive and slower moving than the other, but that these ancillary pieces can be just as important in that they can be used to fill gaps or amplify the team philosophy. Remember how much we all envied the TB 3rd line? Even how Wyatt went from solid to Star 2 years ago.
The key here is these moves are force multipliers. Every ounce of energy teams have to spend on the bottom 6 frees up the top 6. Alternatively, these lines raid the castle while the top lines take all the attention. The best part is these guys are usually fairly cheap towards the cap.
Really could use a HC soon so that this team isn't trying to zig while he zags.
If the Canes buyout Kotkaniemi do you have interest in bringing him into the Mafia? Assuming he can be had for cheap due to his buyout like Duchene
Kotkaniemi is such an odd dock. He's had the absolutely perfect scenario to step up his game in Carolina and still couldn't become more than a 30-point forward. For dirt cheap, as Dallas' third line center? Sure. He's big. He's Finnish. He's scrappy AF too, which he doesn't get credit for (check out his fights with Hagg and Cozens; dude knows what to do with a chingaso). But he'd just be a bigger Sam Steel. I think that's fine. I just don't know what players you're pairing him with that would elevate his offense.
Off topic, I know, but is Bourque going to get offer-sheeted?
I say there is a 97,43% chance of that happening.
My guess is that if Nill cannot clear Cap Space before July 1st, he will trade his rights.
I just hope he will land in Montréal.
The funny thing would be to see the Canes offer sheet him.
I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Bourque's agent isn't prank calliing Nill every night and shouting "Trade me right f'ing now" into the phone. Dallas has no idea what to do with him and Stankoven last year because they didn't arrive as experienced 12 year vets. So why would he want to be back in Dallas eating nachos if he can go to a team who wants him and has some idea how to coach him up like Carolina with Stankoven.
I would not expect that signing Bourque would be on Top of the priorities list of Nill, but I would hope that signing him would come before signing Benn or overspending for Granlund and Duchene.
And my guess, as yours, is that his agent is just waiting for the Stars to qualify him, after which the offer sheets will just come naturally.
I'd say Bourque getting an offersheet is as likely as him getting a deal with term(5-8 years).
The professional body of work isn't their, but the potential is.
Seems like he's currently in Sam Steel in Anaheim territory, but Nill doesn't have the depth of talent in the minors, or waiting high end draft capital to let him walk for cheap.
Benn-Bourque running the 4th seems like a nice set to build off of going into next season.