Window shopping for what's left of 2023's milquetoast UFA class
Let's pretend like Dallas still has money. Any UFA's worth looking at?
Jim Nill has already taken care of business. The moves, in a vacuum, were solid. Matt Duchene? A strong A+. Craig Smith? A weak B+. Sam Steel? I strong B+. Unlike previous years, these moves really raise Dallas’ ceiling instead of its floor. As for the defense, well, I guess we’ll cross that bridge when the time comes.
I can’t tell if the organization genuinely believe they have a quality blueline (as is, they don’t: and please, don’t let anyone tell you their Goals Against numbers), if they’re hoping Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist take forward steps (surprisingly optimistic for a team that won’t dare leave room for Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque), or if they intend to use the trade deadline is a better barometer (ok that’s a smart play but it requires patience, and this is the offseason so I’m fresh out.)
Nonetheless, let’s pretend like there’s still work to be done, and just enough money to do it. 2023 showered the NHL with a weak UFA class of defensemen, but the forwards were money. And there’s still plenty out there.
Some of these names will be names worth highlighting because they’re big names. Some names will be worth highlighting because there’s real value. For the most part, however, this is largely an exercise of What If. So as we go through this list, don’t leave comments (pretty please) about how there’s no room, or how we can’t afford him. I’m trying not to lose my mind to the quiet, okay? Cool?
Cool. Let’s start with the one that got Stars fans pitted against one another in mortal Twitter combat at the trade deadline.
Patrick Kane (RW)
If, like me, sixth grade was when you stopped maturing, then you too were probably whispering “nice” in response to Kane’s offensive percentile. Unfortunately there’s nothing nice about the rest of his game. Yes, he’s productive, but he’s no longer so productive as to offset the rest of his game.
There’s a world where Kane still has value. For example, Kane would be perfect for a team with strong defensive forwards. But Dallas is not that team. In fact, as I’ve shown: only one trio grades out as good defensively. Kane further creating problems makes him a non-starter. But let’s move on to someone even more controversial.
Tony DeAngelo (RHD)
Calm down. I don’t like it either.
But let’s start by talking about the case for. DeAngelo is basically just a pissed-off, edgelord version of John Klingberg: great offense, awful defense.
Sidebar: Although when we talk about Klingberg’s defense, I think the onus is on Stars fans to correct non-Stars fans by distinguishing between the guy who simply wasn’t defensively proficient before Bowness, and the guy who played with Bowness…the coach that removed his defensive cylinder block.
When you consider all the things that make Nils Lundkvist a mystery — strong offensive potential, questionable defense — what would it be worth it to take away that mystery, and guarantee that offense? It’s worth noting that Dallas doesn’t have a strong blueline, but they keeps shots and shot quality down at an above average rate. That tells me that Pete DeBoer is doing a really good job of allowing the system to mask some of its player’s deficiencies. If the system can mask DeAngelo’s deficiencies while maximizing his offense, wouldn’t that be a net positive? Charlie O’Connor (who is an excellent read even if you’re not a Flyers fan) did a deep dive into similar players, and eventually found that DeAngelo’s comparables bounce back defensively. That isn’t to say they get good at defense; just that truly awful defensive years like the one Tony D. had are rare.
As for why this is a bad idea, where do I start? Part of the problem with DeAngelo is that there’s no reason to expect him to gain DeBoer’s trust. This isn’t like Julius Honka, where a bunch of coaches with the same development philosophy ended up with the same judgment. DeAngelo actively feuded with his coaches just like he did with his teammates, from the junior level to the professional. This is in keeping with his general dipshittery whether he’s online or surrounded by the family you’d expect him to get along with. Also, if you’ve ever wondered why I have an extra soft spot for Denis Gurianov (one love, brother!) it’s because he got to punch DeAnelo in the face six years ago. Just saying.
Tomas Tatar (LW, RW)
I’m surprised Tatar hasn’t found a home. This is a guy who went for a first rounder, a second rounder, and a third rounder (yes, that’s on Vegas for doing something so dumb). Despite being on the older side, he’s been incredibly consistent throughout his career. He was never a big point producer, but he still managed to score 48 points last year in New Jersey. Most importantly though, he’s a strong playdriver. Over the last three years, he’s had an incredible impact on shot quality while playing very responsible hockey going the other way. He’s exactly the kind of player I’ve been screaming Seguin and Marchment need. Granted, Nill went out and got Duchene instead, so there’s nothing to truly harp on here. I just maintain that Marchment and Seguin need to be abandoned. Failing that, they need someone else to hold it together before the bottom falls out. (If Marchment’s down year was a prophecy of things to come AND Seguin keeps declining, then woof.)
Ethan Bear (RHD)
Bear has probably been on your radar like mine for awhile. He’s a good example of how thin the line is between an NHL player and a non-NHL player is. Bear checks off all the boxes of a depth defender: strong defensively, drives play the other way even if he doesn’t have the offensive skills to capitalize, and can give you minutes on Special Teams even if his performance on them is nothing to write home about. So why has he bounced around from team to team? To be fair, how many players get minutes, in some cases lots of minutes, and achieve none of the above?
Bear would be nice insurance for Lundkvist if he doesn’t work out. Frankly I don’t see the difference between having Bear as a 7th defender than one of Smith or Steel as a 13th forward; which is why I find the Joel Hanley signing so lowkey obnoxious. If he’s so good as to be defacto trusted in the playoffs, but so negligible as to be a healthy scratched for 90 percent of the regular season then either play him or don’t (!). Beyond that, Dallas needs defensive playdrivers on their backend, and Bear can do that.
Danton Heinen (LW)
Over the last three years, Heinen represents the best of both bottom six worlds: he has a strong impact on goals, and he’s responsible in his own end. He’s also one of the rare depth wingers who isn’t on a decline.
As much as Dallas raves about having lots and lots of centers, there’s something to be said for a player that knows their position inside and out. Right now, Dallas doesn’t have a proper left winger slotted on their fourth line. My guess is that one of Smith or Dellandrea will slot on their offside next to Faksa with one of Smith or Dellandrea on the other. I would absolutely love a Heinen-Dellandrea-Smith fourth line. It’s rare you get every player on a 4th line good for delivering 20 points a piece. Seattle nearly ruined Dallas’ day with that kind of depth. It would easily be Dallas’ best fourth line in franchise history.
Cal Foote (RHD)
There are a lot of teams that would love a Re-Do from the 2017 NHL draft, and none more than Philadelphia. But Tampa Bay would be up there too, who took Cal Foote at 14th overall over names like Martin Necas, Robert Thomas, Josh Norris, and Jake Oettinger (oof). However, it’s possible to be a draft bust and still be playable. I know that sounds extremely awful, but Foote is exactly the kind of player you take a flyer on: strong pedigree, stunted development, but with potential somewhat untapped still.
Foote hasn’t had it easy. Stuck behind a Cup-winning Lightning squad, he finally got a fresh start in Nashville, and didn’t earn anyone’s trust. However, he grew into a player who was getting the job done in his own end.
Granted, a 6’4 defender who is slow on his feet sounds like a lesser Lindell, but then again Stars fans love Lindell, so why would anyone object to this? Again, you gotta roll with me on this: imagine Lundkvist still gets his minutes, and Foote gets a second wind. By season’s end, we end up with Heiskanen-Foote/Harley-Suter/Lindell-Lundkvist. “Suter has agreed to play his offside, which we know he hates so much that he’s willing to call out his coaches in the media on?!” Yea it makes no sense, but doesn’t it feel just a bit better than the current blueline configuration? I’m not convinced either, but it tickles the reptilian part of my brain more than the current configuration.
Jesse Puljujarvi (RW)
Pool party!
I’m not gonna waste your time breaking down Puljujarvi’s game. I’d love to. But Dimitri Filipovic has the definitive breakdown on what makes Poolparty valuable in his own way.
He’s one of the game’s finest forecheckers, a defensive beast, and well…if the goals ever come it’ll be by accident. He’s exactly the kind of player I think would have been perfect alongside Marchment and Seguin: someone with the wheels to pave the road for them, and make up for their defensive shortcomings.
Caleb Jones (LHD)
Last but not least, Arlington native, Caleb Jones (brother of Seth Jones). It’s actually kind of crazy how good he grades defensively despite being on two teams over the last three years known for their precise lack of it. As a left shot defender, he doesn’t fit into Dallas’ setup, but you can never have enough depth, right?
You’re doing a solid job of highlighting what we all (should) know, that this FA class is weak but also especially weak at ingredients that would work well with what the Stars are cooking. I’d have appreciated Pool party or Tatar over Smith (just not sure he has a needed role on his team, better player still than I have recently given credit for) but as an additional addition? Nah. Thanks for saving the deadest time of the year for us with actual insight and good writing!
“Right now, Dallas doesn’t have a proper left winger slotted on their fourth line.”
Are you forgetting Sam Steel is left-handed? Or do you have him penciled in as either a permanent center or 13th forward?