2024 NHL Draft Grades: The Dallas Stars edition, plus July's prospect rankings

The Finnish mafia grows.

I’m a little anal retentive so if you have any free agency thoughts, I’ve got a Free Agency chat right here for us. For now, let’s keep talking about the draft!

There was an interesting comment by Flyers GM Danny Briere on why Philly passed on Zeev Buium, the highest-scoring NCAA freshman defender in modern history. Essentially, Philadelphia already had defenders like Buium. This prompted Thomas Drance to chime in, recalling why Detroit potentially passed on Quinn Hughes to pick Filip Zadina given their stable of puck movers at the time.

As I’ve been working through my own thoughts about how to change the language we use when talking “BPA vs. Need”, here’s a word I find useful: redundancy. Redundancy, after all, can refer as much to players as it can to positions and profiles. Granted, we can’t know the exact reasons for why Philly liked Buium less, or why Detroit liked Hughes less, but it’s easy to see how a player with a redundant element — whether it’s size, puck moving ability, shooting, playmaking, etc — will be seen by teams as a flaw, even when that element is an active asset.

Whether or not this puts into context why Dallas picked Emil Hemming is not where I’m going with this. Yes, I was a fan of E.J. Emery and still am. (Interesting story: Emery dropping actually had a reason, as reported by EPRinkside, although your mileage may vary on how good of a reason it was.) Rather, this seemed to be story of the draft in general: GM’s are getting ‘size-pilled’ to quote one Twitter user.

I got the smoke on social media for criticizing the pick, which is fine. Except for the bad faith critics, I don’t mind, and in some ways, invite it. Part of what attracts me to the draft is that it’s the ideal stomping ground for a student of philosophy: using hockey to bridge practical (a prospect’s skills) with theoretical knowledge (a prospect’s future on an NHL roster). There is, after all, nothing settled about the scouting process. Having said all that, let’s talk about value added.

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Emil Hemming (29th), Niilopekka Muhonen (158th), and William Samuelsson (222nd)

My thoughts haven’t changed on Dallas’ first round selection. I don’t know want to belabor those points, except to say that it’s okay for keep contradictory thoughts at once: better players were available (Emery, Chernyshov, Elick, Artamonov, Badinka, and Stiga namely — watch out for them in the future), and I like Hemming. A lot, in fact.

I didn’t find out until after the fact that Hemming ranked fourth in fatigue index at the combine. Granted, I don’t know how much weight to give stuff like that out. Sam Bennett famously couldn’t do a pullup, and he’s now the most merciless forward in the game. I’d be curious to see an analysis on combine scores and success. Which routines tend to have stronger correlations with future success, if at all? I’m inclined to think of them as loose noise, but that’s only an assumption.

On Day 2, Dallas picked 6’4 Finnish left-handed defender, Niilopekka Muhonen. He played for the KalPa junior team, and earned a little time in the Mestis league (kind of like a CHL but for the Liiga?). Numbers wise, we’re looking at exactly what he was drafted for: to be a shutdown, defensive presence.

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Lassi Alanen’s Z-Scores.

Obviously, the dude’s a project. However, he has some standout skills. Thankfully, Deep Sea Hockey has an All Shifts highlight.

His athleticism is the first thing that stands out. He moves well for a big dude. And…that’s kind of it? It’s hard to tell from one video. His puck control looked great on one shift, kind of awful on another, but the foundation appears to be there. The other thing worth mentioning is that even though he’s left-handed, he was playing on his right side in the above video. However, that was at an international Finnish tournament, so perhaps they lacked right-handed shots? Without any footage from his KalPa team, I can’t tell. Nonetheless, seems like a solid pick.

I hadn’t heard of 6’0 Swedish center William Samuelsson. Apparently, Alexander Appleyard at Smaht Scouting had, and was surprised Samuelsson didn’t go sooner. Take of that what you will.

Draft Grade: A middling B-

Respecting that Dallas had to make do with only three picks, I’m giving them a middling B-. 29th overall this year left a lot of very different talent on the table thanks to some bizarre first-round selections. I’m looking at you Washington (Terik Parascak), Vegas (Trevor Connelly), Nashville (Yegor Surin), Boston (Dean Letourneau: although he has real boom potential, as Daniel Gee noted; also, this is maybe some of the best skills writing you’ll ever read), Calgary (Matvei Gridin), and Edmonton (Sam O’Reilly).

With top pairing defenders of various skillsets (Emery, Badinka, Elick, Brunicke, and Danford), an evolution of the power forward (Chernyshov), two-way playmakers (Stiga), hyperdynamic types (Basha), and super motor types (Artamonov)…a two-way shooter just feels quaint by comparison. Nonetheless, I’m warming up to it.

Dallas doesn’t actually have a premiere shooter in their system. They also lack speed, which is important for a team that wants more rush offense. Hemming provides both while also being a responsible forward. This is the real reason I’m warming up to it: if Hemming can develop some playmaking while getting better at what he’s already good at, I can easily see him becoming a Rickard Rakell or Artturi Lehkonen type, which would be pretty damn sweet.

I also like the Muhonen pick. Yes, something something Dallas’ history with fifth rounders. But I like Muhonen for the same reason I liked a lot of players of his type: shutdown defenders are evolving. He’s clearly rough around the edges, but squint your eyes, and he still represents that type of player. I’m not gonna pretend to have any concept whatsoever about Samuelsson so I’ll just say: hope we works out!

July Prospect Rankings

I haven’t done a deep dive or anything. Needless to say, I’ll be sure to keep a running tab as the season progresses. So far he’s my very very preliminary top 20. Like with my September rankings at Defending Big D, I’m not including anyone over 23.

1. Lian Bichsel

2. Mavrik Bourque

3. Emil Hemming

4. Christian Kyrou

5. Aram Minnetian

6. Ben Kraws

7. Remi Poirier

8. Angus MacDonell

9. Arno Tiefensee

10. Gavin White

11. Luke Krys

12. Kyle McDonald

13. Antonio Stranges

14. Chase Wheatcroft

15. Arttu Hyry

16. Justin Hryckowian

17. Matthew Seminoff

18. Tristan Bertucci

19. Niilopekka Muhonen

20. Francesco Arcuri

Quick thoughts re: Dallas’ rankings

A couple of new faces to look out for are goalie Ben Kraws and right-handed defender Luke Krys. I thought Kraws really came out guns blazing in his very limited appearance before getting lit up. Again, small sample size. With only four games (two in the playoffs), he ended up with a save percentage in between Poirier and Murray. The goalies in Texas aren’t much to write home about, but Kraws and Poirier in particular are still young.

Krys really impressed me as a younger Alex Petrovic. I didn’t watch as many Texas games once Logan Stankoven graduated, but it had nothing to do with being less interested in the AHL. In fact, that’s one thing I intend to do with more regularity here. Seems like there’s an appetite for it from fans, and the surveys demanded it. I wasn’t sure where this place was headed during that time, so that’s the only reason the AHL stuff faded.

Another player I want to give credit to is Kyrou. His game bothered me early on, and then in November, we saw some glimpses. He’s still a player I simply want to see lean into his strengths (I don’t care about his weaknesses). But boy did he level up in the playoffs. Seven points in seven games isn’t how you judge a defender, but but a puck mover like Kyrou, it certainly is how you gain confidence.

Overall, it’s a system that’s about to become a wasteland once Bourque and Bichsel graduate. Nonetheless, Dallas has done a good job of hiring independent talent. Bringing in Kraws, Krys, Hyry, McDonald, and Hryckowian gave the Texas Stars a nice injection of diverse contributors. It’s a system that’s about to start looking grim, but only because everyone else is ahead of schedule.