In The Wild: Reacting to Dallas' first round selection of Emil Hemming

What is Dallas getting? (Besides a spank for passing on EK Emery)

The draft is always a ton of fun. It’s the ultimate glimpse into the future. It’s a window into the players that will shape the NHL for years to come, and thus a way of identifying the inevitable trends that come to define rosters. Dallas once tried to be a bigger, faster team with players like Valeri Nichushkin, Denis Gurianov, Roope Hintz, and Riley Tufte. Now they’re a smaller, smarter team with players like Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque, and Logan Stankoven.

Before we get into Dallas’ pick I want to discuss the proverbial “winners” and “losers.” San Jose tops the list because Macklin Celebrini will be the best two-way pivot since Alexsander Barkov, which is no hyperbole. However, getting Sam Dickinson was also a nice bit of business. I had him ranked 15th on my board, mainly because he’s like a poor man’s Miro Heiskanen; a bit bigger, excellent skater, but I just don’t see the ‘offensive ceiling.’ Nonetheless, they basically just picked up their future number one center, and future number one defensemen. Outside of Dallas’ 2017 draft, that’s as tidy a bit of business as you can get.

Kudos to Montreal and Minnesota for their picks of Ivan Demidov (fourth on my board), and Zeev Buium (ninth). It just goes to show you that sometimes being a draft winner means being next to another team fumbling the bag. It’s also fun to look back at the draft board. But you’re not here for any of that.

Who is Emil Hemming? And why don’t you know about the Finnish forward since I already talked about him with Gavin (last 10 mintues)?

The Bio

• Date of Birth: Jun 27, 2006

• Age: 18

• Height: 6’2

• Weight: 183lbs

• Position: RW

• Shoots: Right

• Team: TPS (Liiga)

What the pros said beforehand

EPRinkside (ranked 40th overall)

• Looking for a well-rounded power forward with translatable tools in the second half of the first round? Emil Hemming has got you covered. The 6-foot-2 winger came out of the gates swinging, distinguishing himself as Finland’s top player at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup and starting the season with TPS’ U20 team with four multipoint games. It only took him a few weeks to earn a Liiga call-up, after which he spent the majority of the season playing against men, albeit in a bottom-six role.

Corey Pronman (50th)

• He's a highly skilled winger who can skate well. He is dangerous in transition, creates a lot of controlled entries and can break open shifts with his skill. Hemming can make plays and see openings develop, but his shot is his best weapon. He can rip pucks from range and will be a legit goal-scoring threat versus top goalies. Like a lot of goal scorers, Hemming can lean on his shot too much and stays on the outside. The lack of interior offense and inconsistent effort is the only thing keeping me from tabbing him as a potential middle-six forward.

Scott Wheeler (19th overall)

• His fitness has at times been a question (sounds like he’s the kind of player who adds weight more easily than others, so he has to watch his nutrition carefully) but he’s a very strong kid who looks like a pro athlete already and actually performed well in the endurance testing at the combine. I’d like to see him use his size a little more, but that’s not uncommon for a player his age and he does go to the interior for his looks, so that’s more a commentary on my wanting to see him knock some guys over physically. He’s got high-end (or close) skill, a dangerous wrister on the power play (from the flank and the bumper) and a quick, one-touch release and catch-and-release motion. When the puck comes off of his blade, it rattles. There were games at U18s and the junior level this year in which he had 10-plus quality looks from the home plate and all of them required good saves to stop. When the puck lands on his stick and he looks to attack and keeps his feet moving, he can create looks and beat defenders and goalies. Every time he gets a chance, it feels dangerous. He’s got a powerful one-timer now. His skating looks fast and sees him gain steps on D when he plays against his peers.

The tape

For the cliffs notes version, Lassi Alanen has you covered with this tweet.

The numbers

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Lassi Alanen’s Z-Scores.

Hemming played for the Liiga junior team as well as the professional league. Safe to say, his performance suffered in a limited role against tougher competition. However, two important things stayed the same and it’s the reason Dallas drafted him: he shoots a lot, and he’s responsible defensively.

Real reaction

I’ll get my Negative Nancy part out of the way. Listen: if you get to be excited about a prospect who’s future you don’t know, I can be disappointed about a prospect who’s future I don’t know. EJ Emery, a Chris Tanev starter kit (who went the pick right after to New York no less), was somehow available, and Dallas passed. That’s the part that stings, for me. That’s a certified right shot top four defender, and you can quote me on that. Dallas doesn’t have anything on the right side, so I’m here to be real with you — anybody else (although Charlie Elick and Dominik Badinka come close) and I would have happily lived with it, but seeing Emery fall hurts and hurts bad.

Am I done pouting? Probably not, but we’ll move on. But we’re moving on not because I’m still more than willing to turn this into a vent zone, but because Hemming is a legit player. He’s essentially something Dallas is missing. Yes, he’s a right shot, which is a little funny given how many right shots they already have, but he’s a bigger forward; which is something they don’t. He’s extremely agile, while also having a good top gear (this is huge since forwards need to be able to move as quick north/south as they can east/west), and he does a great job of creating chances off the rush. That’s definitely something Dallas can use. As I’ve droned on and on about with Dallas — they aren’t actually a good rush team. Hemming helps plug this tactical hole while also being brilliant on the man advantage. Throw in his defensive acumen, and all the makings are there for a proper three-zone forward.

Are there downsides? Not many. In fact, it’s really just one thing, but it’s an important thing. Offensively, Hemming is quite one-dimensional. Even against his direct peers, he graded out poorly as a passer. Granted, he wasn’t picked to be a playmaker, but I do feel like in order to shoot at the next level, you can’t be predictable, and Hemming is pretty predictable when he’s one on one with the goalie. The best way to threaten at the NHL level is to threaten with someone else’s shot.

The logic for Dallas was pretty transparent: yes, they felt like he was the best player available but I also think they liked his size, which is why they passed on two forwards I considered far more versatile and just as talented in Teddy Stiga and Nikita Artamanov. Size wasn’t the only factor, but the Stars already have a lot of undersized forwards. Granted, they’re some of Dallas’ best, but if the skill’s there too, it’s easy to see what made Hemming so attractive.

Just to be clear, the whole point of “in the wild” is to give you my emotional reaction. In time, this will change, just as the player will change; as will the players who Dallas didn’t pick. Hemming’s a really talented forward with an important skillset that EPRinkside compared to Nick Paul, and he’s turned into a solid middle six forward (granted, Paul with way better skating but I get the comparison). I like Hemming; he has a higher ceiling than most of the forwards that were available, which was undoubtedly his allure. I just liked other players more.

With that out of the way, let’s just sit back and enjoy Hemming’s journey.

It’s behind a paywall but I’d recommend checking out Lassi Alanen’s profile on Hemming last week. It’s fantastic work.