2024 Report Card: Esa Lindell and the art of an invisible man
But for how much longer?
Slow season is upon us; just not here. I’ll have a report card for every Dallas player going through August. As always, consider upgrading to paid subscriber since some of these will be behind a paywall.
One sentence summary
The most reliable minute-munching defensemen continued to give Dallas minutes.
A few good stats
Cap: $5.8 million (Year 6 of 6)
GP: 82
Goals: 5
Assists: 21
Points: 26
Postseason: 19 GP — 3 goals, 2 assists — 5 points
xSPAR: 3.7 extra points in the standings (Rank: 12th on the team)
Lindell’s always been a rugged player with very very specific strengths, but no weaknesses. This year was a little different. Teams targeted him a lot (entry targets per 60), but he wasn’t the rock that he usually is in keeping those carry-ins from becoming chances. He was his usual self in terms of getting the puck out, but I’ll be honest: this is a bad look. This data makes it look like he was complete passenger. Perhaps it’s worth questioning the wisdom of the “invisible” defender, but in fairness to Lindell, his previous year was way better.
Thematically appropriate highlight
The Lindell experience in a nutshell: stronger than you think.
Grade: (A strong) B-
Lindell has always been, at least for me, an enigma for what he’s purported to be. He’s a player who gets evaluated on the basis of, rather than low expectations, seemingly none at all. To the extent that anyone expects anything from him, it’s to be play a lot of minutes, to be ‘invisible’ as the cliche goes, and take care of the penalty kill.
When you step back, you’d be hard-pressed to consider a more fascinating career for a $5.9 million defender. Up from a successful rookie season in the AHL, scoring 42 points in 73 games, Lindell was immediately stapled to (formerly) puck-moving sensation, John Klingberg. Despite his prospect profile as an offensive defensemen, being big and slow seemed like a stereotype enough to make him the shutdown part of their pairing — even if the nuances of Lindell’s game were far deeper (and the strengths, somewhat shallower). And then Klingberg left. Out of Klingberg’s shadow, what has Dallas been left with?
It’s funny how their combination together seemed to be a shadow big enough for both. Klingberg flamed out, and now injuries may have shortened his career while Lindell has played the better part of two seasons next to Jani Hakanpaa: another chemistry bigger than the players themselves, although for less charitable reasons.
If I’m going over Lindell’s history, it’s because there’s never much to say about his on-ice play. He plays a strong gap, doesn’t make mistakes, anticipates well, and Dallas makes him play all the PK minutes, and that’s pretty much it. I thought he actually had a strong playoffs too, although let’s face it, Tanev brought that pair to life. If you want to revel in my hypocrisy, his sG rating rates him as a high performer.
How does that stack up against his peers? Quite well! In fact, he’s never been better as a defender.
I have my own theories for why the fancy stats like Lindell so much while I don’t, but that’s neither here nor there. I’m not sure I’ll ever have a full grasp of Lindell’s genuine impact. “Well, duh, he plays strong shutdown defense!” No I got it. What I’m saying is how much of Lindell’s shutdown ability is truly caused by what he does, and how much of that is an effect of what he does? Let’s pretend the data is gospel for a second. You would expect more consistency in his shift-to-shift impact, but instead he was all over the place next to Klingberg, and somehow stabilized next to Hakanpaa. (To be fair, this undercuts my criticism as well.) How does that square with the standard perception of who he is?
If Lindell is something of a contradiction, maybe it’s because his career began as one: for as long as he’s been in the NHL, he’s had to perform as a different player than the one he was drafted as….that is…until recently.
A digression: is it Lindell’s final year?
IMO, it needs to be. I think even Lindell’s biggest fans can admit that the writing is on the wall here. Lindell in the top four essentially takes away the ability of Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley to anchor their own pairs; something I believe could ignite the top four. There’s also the fact that Lian Bichsel plays a very similar game, which, should he prove to be ready, would further complicate the left side. And that’s not even counting his next contract, which would be Mattias Ekholm money.
Is Lindell worth Ekholm money?
Not in my book, and hopefully not Dallas’.
Given his age, there’s no way a long term deal would ever look good, either. Despite his defensive acumen, Dallas needs to be more dynamic on the backend, and Lindell suffocates their ability to do that, with his complete inability to outlet pass or transition the puck up ice. He has a lot of strengths, but Dallas is already a slow team as is. Dallas moved on from one blueliner with one dimension in John Klingberg; they need to move on from the other blueliner of that era with one dimension.
Lindell’s place in the lineup
Lindell’s final year sets up a really interesting gauge for the organization’s plans. If Dallas wanted to, they could stick him on the third pair — trying to achieve on the blueline what they did with with their offense, balancing everyone into left-right duos with complimentary skillsets rather than trying to stack the deck. Something like this.
Miro Heiskanen — Matt Dumba
Thomas Harley — Ilya Lyubushkin
Esa Lindell — Nils Lundkvist
If Dallas wants to defend via committee, it could very well work. (Although I wouldn’t expect Lundkvist for what I thought were obvious reasons, but apparently not to Dallas, Lundkvist, or his agent.) It covers up everyone’s weakness, and most critically, allows Dallas to roll three pairs while getting Heiskanen back on his strongside.
I mention this scenario because it all but sets the stage for the Stars to let Lindell walk after his contract’s up. Why pay six million to a “third” pairing defender? Especially when so much money will be dedicated to (likely) tying up Wyatt Johnston for the maximum term, and giving Jake Oettinger a raise, not to mention, bringing Benn back.
This all feels unfair to Lindell, I know, but I don’t know where to begin. It always seems like someone else needs to bring out the best on him, whether it was Klingberg or Tanev. Maybe I’m wrong, and there is an art to invisibility. If there is, he has one year to prove it…beyond a shadow of a doubt — after all, only players that cast their own shadows deserve that kind of money, and Lindell has been too invisible to do so, for better and for worse.
Alright, so here's my loose theory re: Lindell vs. Fancy Stats. Lindell's STS (shift to shift) defense gets boosted by a little double dipping. As in, he tends to see more shots precisely because his board rims and neutral zone lobs end in turnovers, and maybe these re-entries are more likely to be less dangerous hence the elite impact on expected goals against. Meanwhile, the little bit of offense he has tends to be high danger, as he's quite selective, and generally quite good (in keeping with his original player profile).
So basically, he profiles like a sniper despite simply being selective -- which these models love -- and he's given credit for his defensive white noise -- which these models can't account for.
Lindell's contract sucks, has always sucked, will always suck. If he signs a Ryan Suter sized deal, he can stay, otherwise he's not worth it. Just like you can't mention Duchene without talking about the sizzling deal he signed, you shouldn't mention Lindell without that lead balloon
Esa is low event hockey (not unlike the FCC line we couldn't wait to see off). It isn't so much that it is bad, but it is just kind of filler. He does have an uncanny ability to score points off of shots that coming from anyone else would be labeled harmless. Say he signed for the same term but at $4M, I'm not sure I'd have any emotions about the guy. On the defensive side of the puck after your top pair no news is good news, but with that contract, he doesn't get a pass (pun unintended but apt).