2024 Report Card: Jamie Benn once again defies the regression gods
Re-born and ruthless.
Slow season is upon us; just not here. I’ll have a report card for every Dallas player going through August. As always, consider upgrading to paid subscriber since some of these will be behind a paywall.
One-sentence summary
The captain of the team continues showing that every great fighter still has one great fight left in them.
A few good stats
Cap: $9.5 million (Year 8 of 8)
GP: 82
Goals: 21
Assists: 39
Points: 60
Postseason: 19 GP — 4 goals, 11 assists — 15 points
xSPAR: 4 extra points in the standings
For a 34-year old power forward, Benn is doing alright for himself. With an extra special impact on shot quality (xGAR), and special teams, defensive impact is the only thing his game is lacking.
Thematically-appropriate highlight
No other play demonstrated the will that remains than when Brayden McNabb decleated Logan Stankoven, prompting Benn to return fire with some Pick On Someone Your Own Size ultraviolence.
Grade: (A skeptical) A+
When we began last season, regression was what we anticipated. That was the estimation of The Athletic, who called him a top 10 regression candidate this time last year. I found that analysis wanting, even if I agreed with the general principle. My response is behind a paywall, so even though it’s a little weird to quote myself, it’s nonetheless worth revisiting.
We hear the word “regression” so much it’s tempting to view every regression candidate from the lens of David Clarkson, or Alex Chiasson. To most, regression is something dramatic that happens. Truth is, I’d expect Benn’s regression to be more subtle. After all, Johnston and Dadonov will help insulate him. The PP, even if he doesn’t go ballistic on it, will give him the opportunity to produce when he’s not performing. And overall, Benn’s regression won’t be a big story. He’ll probably break 60 points, and fans will be satisfied.
For me the real concern is whether or not the organization sees it. Although Benn’s production won’t see a dramatic decline, I feel we’re already seeing his performance dramatically decline. Defensively, he’s turning into a pylon on top of being too flippant wit the puck. Offensively, he’s still dangerous, but it always feels like the product of his surroundings i.e. the top power play unit, and a rookie sensation.
One thing that was clear all year is that whatever Benn’s faults, Johnston will continue to get the best out of him. Yes it’s primarily a testament to Johnston, but it’s also a credit to Benn that even this late in his career, his talents haven’t faded. For perspective, Milan Lucic could only muster 20 points at the same age. Different players, different context, sure, but still. I really thought Benn would drag Johnston down, but it’s clear that they have a very symbiotic relationship — even if you’d like to see Benn be a little more defensively responsible.
This is part of why I think an A+ is well-earned here. Out of over 1200 players ages 34 and over since 2007, Benn ranks 54th on that list for most productive in a season. His production this season for players his age is above names like Marian Hossa, Scott Niedermayer (what a brilliant player), Keith Tkachuk, and just below players like Pavel Datsyuk, Patrice Bergeron, and Joe Pavelski. His 15 playoff points for a player his age ranks seventh among postseason performers since 2007, above Jaromi Jagr and below Chris Pronger. As far as next season, I think there’s every reason to expect more of the same.
By the way, I find it interesting that Benn’s power play impact, evaluated in isolation, is barely above average. It feels like something in keeping with my own Brain Test when I watch him on the power play, which is that he’s one of the its only (especially with Pavelski gone) weak links.
Nonetheless, Dallas will keep him well-insulated with the prospects accompanying him. Last season was one of his best ever per his sG rating.
A digression: Benn’s next contract
I know this is a topic for another day, but his next contract will be fascinating; something prompted by a discussion Gavin Spittle had with Joey Erickson from Locked On Stars podcast. Benn is the captain of the team and unlike during the Bowness and Montgomery years, Gaglardi is no longer in any rush to get rid of him. He’s responsible for helping grow Dallas’ most elite forward prospects, provides an element the team already lacks even with him (size and snarl), and continues to be a productive player during the regular season and beyond. If you’re Benn and his management team, you’re thinking you’re still in your prime. If you’re other teams, you’re agreeing with that and backing up the brinks truck (that you now have thanks to the cap going up) for a playoff run. If you’re Dallas, you’re gonna have to explain to the fanbase why you couldn’t afford to bring back your still-productive, physical captain of the team.
Assuming he breaks 60 points again, the world will be his oyster. Sean brought up the Patrick Kane comparison (four million for one year, but it’s basically $6.5 million based on some very straighforward stipulations), which could be instructive, and I wonder how that fits into Dallas’ cap structure for the Johnston and Stankoven windows. Fans like to play up the “hometown discount” angle, but I’ve never found this to be terribly productive. It sets up players to be disloyal goons with zero working knowledge of their actual motivations. Besides, Benn is not some Texas kid that went to rocket camp at the Fort Worth Museum of Science and History where they used to have a life-sized model of the Queen Alien and feasted on chicken fried steak at now-defunct places like The Colonial (that’s me!). He’s from a dropdead gorgeous island in Canada. Even if he just wanted to go home, I wouldn’t blame him in the least.
Having said that, my early verdict is this: Hintz and Robertson are basically veterans. Don’t do what Pittsburgh did. Let the new core lead new journeys. Like the song goes…
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As we were…
If Benn is good at anything, it’s not knowing the meaning of the word ‘regression.’ Dude has been defying the expected goal gods since jump street.
However, I say ‘skeptical’ in his grade because you have to wonder just how long he can keep it up. Benn is not a player like Joe Pavelski. He’s more like Vladimir Tarasenko; another player with a relatively physical style who has remained productive in his advanced age but whose underlying numbers are cause for concern. Benn’s lack of defense still feels significant, and even though his power play numbers are legit by the most advanced standard, I doubt his power play impact lasts much longer. He’s no longer a deft passer, and in general — not the player that I think will level up the power play.
Nonetheless, he’s gonna be with an improved Johnston, and Stankoven all year at even strength, not to mention power play time on the top unit (even if I think Stankoven will quickly prove to be better). If regression does hit, it won’t hit hard.
And probably not as hard as Benn’s been hitting back.
Good write up David. I hope the core veterans learned something from Joe. I hope they learned a team friendly 1 or 2 year contract will make the whole team better and give them a better chance to see their name on the most famous of all sports trophies. I hope that the new streaming package includes Razor and Josh and that it enables us to all watch the Stars all season long.
Those sG stats really stand out to me, since most of the season much of what we heard was just about his defense being questionable. What we didn't hear was a lot of the other positives that he was contributing, but some of that probably comes with him having extra large expectations.
The obvious question is how long his body will hold up with his style of play, but for me the secondary question is something you pointed to in the Seguin summary, his passenger status. The PP1 was crazy talented, and Johnston still is potentially underrated. I'm anything but worried about this for next year, but the warning lights are flashing yellow for the next contract. With the payday Stamkos got, if I'm Nill, I leave the credit card at home and take cash. One of 3 things happen here, he stays, he goes for the money, or he continues to look like Mo and goes to play near home.