2024 Report Card: Matt Duchene was everything Dallas could ask for until Dallas asked for more

A tale of two seasons, indeed.

Original artwork by Ryan Konzelman.

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One sentence summary

A former Avalanche star became an avalanche for Dallas’ secondary scoring in all the ways that such an analogy is both good and bad.

A few good stats

• GP: 80

• Goals: 25

• Assists: 40

• Points: 65

• Postseason: 19 GP — 2 goals, 4 assists — 6 points

• xSPAR: 1.7 extra points in the standings (Rank: 12th on the team)

Don’t know what you’re looking at and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR).

In what has been a familiar story for others, Duchene was really good offensively in terms of observed goal scoring, and expected goal scoring, but allowed a lot going the other way.

Thematically appropriate highlight

I mean. There could be no other one, right?

Grade: (A concerning) A-

Matt Duchene was everything Dallas could have asked for, and then some. To the extent that the Stars were defined by depth, Duchene was its floating head poster. He was the star of the show, and insofar as Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment had bounceback years — Duchene was their missing link.

He also provided Dallas with something they still don’t actually have, not to mention something I droned on and on about for what I assumed would be analytics minutiae but turned out to be quite relevant against an Edmonton team had no such hangups — rush offense. We broke it down with some film room analysis back in February.

In the regular season, Duchene created a ton of space for his teammates, which was both expected (he’s always been great at this) and unexpected (he hasn’t lost a step, and pulling Seguin and Marchment up by their bootstraps is a tall task).

He was also a boon to the power play, injecting the second unit with life after an abysmal run last season no thanks to some questionable roster management (or am I getting my Ryan Suter years mixed up?). His 5.8 points per 60 on the man advantage was better than Roope Hintz’ power play production rate over the last two years, and even above Wyatt Johnston’s 4.1 clip.

Duchene also gets a few extra marks for being as cheap as he was. He could have jogged on with more money in his checking account, not only this season, but next. Instead the Stars are only paying six million across two seasons for a middle six center that can bank 60 points. So why the A-?

We know why. Before the playoffs even started, Duchene had already shown signs of slowing down. With just nine points in his last 20 regular season games, the writing was on the wall for some modest regression. And regress he did. Duchene basically ended the year with 15 points in his last 40 games. The shift-to-shift profile of Duchene’s offense was very different from his production, which potentially explains why his production suffered.

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model (sG).

We don’t need J.B. Fletcher for this one. The Seguin injury happened during their last regular season stretch, and without him, his presence relied on Marchment for support, who simply doesn’t play that role nor does he have much in the way of interlinking skills. According to Duchene, there was also the personal struggle of being bought out, the effect it had outside of the rink, and playing a full season with a new team after so much upheaval.

I’m not gonna downplay any of that, but I will downplay some of that. Mainly because I think Duchene’s struggles in the postseason were fixable. Without any injuries to report, he kept playing like he had extra space just like in the regular season, making a few too many cutbacks and pivots to dance defenders, squandering shooting opportunities and never adjusting even when opposing teams were reading the playbook right in front of him. His 11 shot attempts per hour in the postseason ranked 11th among 14 forwards, somehow below Radek Faksa.

None of this is to necessarily sink Duchene, in my estimation. One of the reasons why I’ve included postseason games into each player’s ranking is because Dallas played a lot of them, giving us a decent 19-game sample size to include into each player’s assessment. Duchene gets docked for those reasons, but I also think he’s allowed a bad patch. And I also think it’s no coincidence that a lot of Stars forwards “lost a step” in the postseason: they went through a certified gauntlet that included two former Cup winners, and the team that was one win away from being a Cup winner themselves.

It’s also worth emphasizing the meaning the word regression: “a return to a former or less developed state.” Duchene’s career shooting percentage in the playoffs is 15 percent. In this year’s playoffs he shot seven percent. If there’s one thing he’s done well his entire career, it’s get lucky.

He’ll get lucky again.

It’ll be interesting to see how Duchene moves forward. Some of it will depend on if Dallas runs the Seguin line back. Do they replicate last season, but with more consistency going into the postseason? Do they take a step back? Does a newlook trio guarantee a step forward for Duchene in the playoffs? What if Duchene and Mavrik Bourque become the next kid-to-veteran connect? (Nobody talks about this potential chemistry, but they should.)

If there’s a reason for optimism, it’s that playoff production — when adjusted for minutes — doesn’t actually change all that much. That doesn’t mean there aren’t exceptions, nor does it mean this is a hard and fast rule. But I wouldn’t bank on Duchene going cold like that again if Dallas gets another crack. The flesh may have a few warts, but the bones remain strong and upright. That’s all Dallas needs from Duchene: a few good shifts.