2024 Report Card: Tyler Seguin and the tale of more than two seasons
Is he back, back-ish, or something else?
And so it begins. Slow season is upon us; just not here. Every day, starting today, I’ll have a report card for every Dallas player going through August. As always, consider upgrading to paid subscriber since some of these will be behind a paywall.
One-sentence summary
The Seguinlightenment that was…until it wasn’t. (Any other history nerds extremely bothered by how the “Enlightenment” is contrasted with the Dark Ages like the Axial Age never existed or something?)
A few good stats
Cap: $9.85 million (Year 6 of 8)
GP: 68
Goals: 25
Assists: 27
Points: 52
Postseason: 19 GP — 5 goals, 8 assists — 13 points
xSPAR: 3 extra points in the standings
What a bizarre statistical profile. Seguin was great in terms of impact on observed goals (GAR), bonkers in terms of expected goals (xGAR), grading out as better than 90 percent of his peers, and downright dreadful as an impact defensive forward — the literal polar opposite on defense as over 90 percent of his peers were better. Somehow none of this oddball dynamic translated on special teams, as Seguin had a modest expected goal impact, very good impact on observed goals, and was downright excellent on the penalty kill. He was also a minus in penalty differential, which is strange, since I don’t recall him being terribly undisciplined — although what makes a player undisciplined is ultimately determined more by the bottom line than whether or not they play “overaggressive” or whatever.
Thematically-appropriate highlight
Seems like Seguin in a nutshell: without his legs, or his shot, or really much of anything, at least you can trust him to bury an open net (cough, Mattias Janmark). It’s not the most glowing review, but it is the perfect review for the player he is now.
He’s still making donuts; just without the sprinkles.
Grade: (A contentious) B
Back in February, I wrote about Seguin at D Magazine. Essentially, Seguin was doing this year what Jamie Benn did the year before. A lot of his underlying numbers were not just good, but great. But almost immediately following that piece…his game just cratered, with only seven points in his last 14 games, and porous defense.
And I think we know why. There was never a question about what Matt Duchene was doing for Seguin and Mason Marchment’s game. Duchene was the prime mover. He was the shooter, the playmaker, and the one transitioning the puck up and down the ice at every turn. That’s not to say that Seguin was just a passenger. Okay maybe it IS to say that Seguin is a passenger. But not all passengers are created equal. Anyone who’s ever gone on a lengthy road trip with someone else can attest to this. Seguin was a good passenger: he shared the same taste in music, didn’t talk too much but not too little, was able to manage his bladder and cut down on the destination clock, etc.
But once Duchene stopped driving (and he did), so did everyone else, and that included Seguin, who didn’t drive play, like…at all. In fact, looking at his Rel stats, Dallas gave up an extra 54 shots with Seguin on ice. Again, some of the underlying stuff was more generous, especially offensively. (With Seguin on ice, Dallas generated an extra four goals, and gave up six fewer.) But in the end it really felt like Seguin being propped up.
At least on the whole. And that’s where my grade might be a little harsh.
One thing I considered (and will consider for all report cards) is their playoff performance. Seguin, for all of his faults, was insanely productive for a depth player, scoring 13 points in 19 postseason games. That was only two less than Benn, who everyone agrees had a monster postseason while also having the advantage of playing next to superior players. I wanted to give Seguin something close to an A-, or maybe even a straight A (not that there’s anything scientific about this process), but I settled for the grade because I can’t help but feel like second-half regular season Seguin was the player we can expect to get in the future. It wasn’t just a rough second half: you’d be hard pressed to highlight any single trait that Seguin brought to the table at a high level. Also re: his postseason production, five of his 13 points were secondary assists. Just saying.
There are times when “old” Seguin makes an appearance. Every now and then he catches a burst out in the open; his passes suddenly look like they’re coming from a player with vision; his sharpness shielding the puck from defenders looks the way it “used to was” (I need to stop watching re-runs of True Detective Season 2); that dawg is often visible; vintage Seguin appears whole, if just for a moment. But does anyone else feel like the universe has to unfold in perfect sequence to allow Seguin these moments?
I would never call Seguin ‘washed’ because that’s genuinely not the case. But over the last three years, it’s the same story: really great impacts on offense, and a negative impact on defense. Micah Blake McCurdy’s sG rating gives you the visual version of this.
Still, I can’t criticize him for things beyond his control. Truth is, we’ll never know who Seguin would have been without the injuries. For now, I think he’s done a great job of making an impact within that new profile, even if it’s rough around the edges.
The tough thing about Seguin is that it’s hard to tell where he goes from here. Nobody expects him to get better, and it’s harder to imagine what would look like even he miraculously did. It’s quite possible that Seguin is reunited with Duchene and Marchment, and everything goes back to normal: which is to say that they’re a good line that generates lots of offense — although probably not at the same level as last year (they’re all getting older, after all) — but not much else. It doesn’t sound super exciting but it’s a known commodity. Plus I suspect that Pete DeBoer will be more invested in boosting the top two lines.
Bourque is really the x-factor in this. Depending on his level of readiness, does he play on the top line, or get reunited with Logan Stankoven? Or maybe they give Duchene the Joe Pavelski job and see if Bourque can’t do for Seguin and Marchment what Stankoven did for Benn and Johnston (?). It’s worth remembering that Seguin had the top line assignment for a hot minute there at the end, and looked predictably comfortable.
Ultimately, I think Seguin is a player of contradictions. He’s an analytics darling as much as he’s an analytics dud. For a player who’s gone to hell and back, having any juice left is a net positive. His final year will probably be grim, but for now, Dallas has someone who can contribute. I think that’s plenty.
As close to the vest as the teams put out injury info you never know what or how bad the injury was. I think he stays with Duchene and Marchment and they will be the 3rd line. I see Mavrik, Stanky and Jamie together as the 2nd line and I believe our 4th line will better than this year.
I know you have to look at a cap hit, but I feel it's a bit unfair when it comes to Seguin. There wasn't a predictable decline in Seguin's game (such as with Benn, given the style he plays). Instead, Seguin got decimated by injuries. It's a miracle he can still walk, much less play hockey at an NHL-quality level. So while I think a "B" is appropriate for him, I think you can be more generous with Seguin. Mostly he's going to be fine-ish, and every so often there comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what is possible.