Breakfast Salvos: Waiting for Thomas Harley, imagining Patrik Laine in victory green, and offer sheets at the O.K. Corral

Slow season finally picks up. With a vengeance.

If you’re like me, you pretend you have a life away from hockey, but you really don’t. I’m thankful for my marriage, my family and friends — less thankful that the publishing industry recognizes my novel for the half baked story that it is and continues to reject it — but no matter what’s happening in my personal life, it always comes back to hockey. That’s not to say I love hockey above all else, but it is to say that hockey is an intrusive part of my life. I can’t turn it off, which is why today we’re gonna talk, exhaustively, about Patrik Laine.

But before we dig deep, please stop worrying about the Thomas Harley contract. A deal will get done in due time. After all, Nill is not Ken Holland or Jeff Jackson — who we’ll talk about later — allowing the vultures to circle with badly-engineered cap management. Nill’s confident it will happen ahead of camp. If it weren’t for Gavin Spittle asking me pointed questions, this stuff wouldn’t even cross my mind. Thing is, it’s a win-win for Dallas no matter what. Sure, a bridge deal could up the price on the next contract. And sure, a max deal could be a big risk if Harley is not the player we think he is.

But I would argue that Harley is that player. The data tells the same story as my gut: he’s got the goods, along with an encouraging development curve.

There’s a more reasonable debate about whether Harley is a number one defender, and for sure, the jury’s still out. There’s a good chance we can see Harley anchor his own pair this year, but in the end, we’re talking about an impact player, and easily Dallas’ second best three-zone defender. No matter what, Dallas has a top four defender with top pairing offense on their books.

Even if we’ve seen Harley’s development peak, Dallas still has its man. Just look at the other top four defenders in the six-seven million dollar range: Brandon Montour, Filip Hronek, Vince Dunn, Noah Hanifan, Morgan Reilly, Colton Parayko, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Torey Krug, Ryan Pulock — you telling me that Harley doesn’t, at minimum, belong in this category?

But enough about the obvious. Let’s get serious, and talk about Patrik Laine.

How good would Laine be for Dallas?

Laine might be the most interesting talent in the entire NHL. And I don’t mean “interesting” in that nebulous way people mean when they’re trying to be snarky or (conversely) diplomatic. I mean ‘interesting’ in the way it was intended. Laine holds your attention like no other player as much for what he is, what he isn’t, what he has yet to become, and what he’s never been.

I’m not even sure we’ve even met the real Laine. For years, he kind of toiled away in Winnipeg, which is no, not a swipe at the city of Winnipeg. (Making fun of an entire city in general is something I find in poor taste despite me having no business being self-righteous for reasons that will be apparent in a bit.) No, it’s a swipe at watching Laine spend a significant portion of his Jets tenure next to Bryan Little, who flat out didn’t belong on an offensive line at that point in his career. After finally getting a change of scenery, the new scene was Columbus, a certified Killing Them Softly-level car wreck (I use this analogy a lot don’t I?) of a franchise thanks to clownshoe management; an organization so poorly run under Jarmo Kekalainen’s watch that not even their medical staff avoided evaluation.

Yet out of that bowl of gruel, Laine has still emerged top 15 in goals per 60 since he entered the league in 2016. Nobody crushes a puck like he does, and he’s done it all through injuries, bad management, and personal demons. If you’re not at least intrigued, you don’t know puck. But do we know Laine? And what exactly is intrigue worth? We already have some idea: $8.7 million for two more seasons. What is that money and mystery worth to what would need to be sacrificed in order for Dallas to add Laine to their Finnish mafia?   

The story on Laine has held true for pretty much his entire career. He can split puck atoms, which is great, but that’s pretty much it. A shooter, and really not much of anything else.

Don’t know what you’re looking at and need a filthy casual explainer? Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR).

While Josh and Luke Younggren’s model does a lot to isolate player impact, it’s not perfect, which means it’s hard to separate him from the Blue Jacket Macy’s Parade of bad decisions. Nonetheless, we see the same thing in his debut too.

Data and visual courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.

It’s kind of fascinating that for such an ascendant shooter, his impact on the power play is borderline negligible by comparison, and has been his entire career. Micah Blake McCurdy’s work is even less charitable, which is important because his model is more focused on assessing future value.  

Not sure what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Micah Blake McCurdy’s synthetic goal model (sG).

Same thing: he’s expected to finish, but not expected to defend, and not expected to generate offense away from goal-scoring, with everything else that is baked in the game’s plus/minus – setting, penalty drawing, defense – more or less a wash. Looking at his tracking data, he has a very similar profile to Brock Boeser; another player who seems to wax and wane with his shooting percentage, and really his shooting percentage alone (more or less).  

Don’t know what this chart means and need a filthy casual guide? Click here to learn more about Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones data.

Except with the added ability to break out of his zone. Basically, there’s no good reason for anyone to take a chance on him except as a reclamation project. But is there a reason to think he might bounce back? 

This is where your mileage will vary. He’s back from the Player Assistance Program, appears to be in the right mindset, having turned his experience into an honorable social media campaign, and he’s putting in the work. On the psychology side of things, Laine looks like a safe bet. It’s everything else that feels like a major risk; because it’s always been a risk. He’s a big, slow winger with one weapon, and that’s it. There’s a world where Laine makes sense. After all, weapons are weapons. I think if Dallas were a faster team, or a better passing team – the Stars were mediocre on rush chances, and average on the pass per Corey Sznajder’s leaderboards – they could insulate his weaknesses. If they were a strong possession team like Carolina without a offensive x-factor, it could make sense. But Dallas is none of these things. (This is not a criticism of Dallas; they do a lot of things well, and are elite at others, but offensively they’re an extremely muddled team — dangerous, and deep, but lacking in a real identity — which nobody really talks about it.) 

If we’re playing dimestore psychologist, I do think Dallas is uniquely positioned to get the most out of him. If he’s driven more by psychology, then wouldn’t it be nice to be surrounded by your fellow countrymen; by elite players who remind you of your roots? Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz (boy would that be a duo), Esa Lindell, Emil Hemming – hardly a shortage of brothers for Laine. 

Dallas is not, however, uniquely positioned to fit him into their cap. But let’s play this game. Dallas has $6.2 million to work with. Assume Harley gets a deal done at the lowest amount. Per Evolving-Hockey, that deal is $3.9 million for two years (technically less if he takes a one-year deal). That would leave Dallas with $2.3 million left in cap. Even if Columbus ate half that contract – which Don Waddell is on record as saying he won’t do – that’s still $4.3 million. That would require Dallas to shed another two million. Do they have any cap dumps? Technically. Dadonov still has one year ($2.2 million). They could also consider Mason Marchment’s contract. While he has a 10-team modified no trade clause, his $4.5 million (two more years) doesn’t look bad after his 50-point season. Marchment also fits Columbus’ rough and tumble style. However, Marchment and Dadonov are not assets, meaning the Stars would have to give up something more valuable. 

That doesn’t mean giving up Lian Bichsel or Mavrik Bourque. Ville Koivunen in the Carolina, and Owen Tippett in Florida were probably the last good prospects had for a veteran, so more likely we’d be talking about a pick and a prospect like Christian Kyrou or Aram Minnetian. At that point, where does he fit? Dallas is pretty stacked at right wing, with Tyler Seguin, Logan Stankoven, potentially Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque, along with Dadonov. One of these players would have to move to their left side, at which point, the only place that makes sense is next to Hintz. That sounds awesome, but it requires a lot of gymnastics down the lineup.

Personal opinion, plus a poll

I’d love it, personally. It doesn’t make a lick of sense, but it’s a fun thought experiment, and I think players like Laine can help maximize the game’s peaks, even it comes at the cost of making those valleys worse. I don’t know if it really makes Dallas better, though. I’d like to see Dallas’ cap weaponized towards a future RHD, like Rasmus Andersson, who will still have one year left on his $4.5 million deal in Calgary next season when the Stars will have more cap flexibility with Jamie Benn, and Esa Lindell coming off the books (expect Dallas to bring at least one back, likely Benn for obvious reasons). Andersson would be perfect: a top four defender replacing another top defender with the added flexibility of potentially pairing next to Miro Heiskanen, where he can play on his strongside at last? That’s more interesting, as are other targets. The Stars are set at forward for years to come. Defense remains a mystery.

Amstrong’s war on Edmonton (plus some ranting)

If you missed the news about St. Louis and Edmonton, you’re in for a treat. St. Louis offered Philip Broberg a two-year deal worth $4.5 million, and Dylan Holloway $2.2 million, also for two years. If Edmonton lets them walk, St. Louis gets two former first rounders for nothing more than a second and a third rounder per offer sheet stipulations. The catch? Edmonton is already $7.2 million over the cap, although the math gets easier if Evander Kane (who’s about to have some major surgery) gets his $5.1 million smuggled through LTIR. Either way, it’s a tough situation.  

As you may know, I find the phrase “the NHL is not a development league” outright repulsive. More than just bad philosophy, it’s empty philosophy, actively damages prospects, and thus their careers, and affects teams. Throw that line out in any other industry—the university is not a development organization/this corporation is not a development community/this facility is not a development group/we don’t develop at this restaurant/etc—and you would think something insidious was going on. Why even tell me that? Yes, I understand that there’s a more harmless interpretation of it, which is that hockey teams don’t have time to babysit. But this is also bad. The league is getting younger. If you don’t have time to “babysit” then good luck turning your retirement home into an effective army.

More to the point, coaches are turning on this mindset. After the the Rutger McGroarty situation in Winnipeg, probably more GMs too. So let this be a cautionary tale. There was no reason to let it get to this point. There was no reason not to learn more when you could have. Now — as the ultimate slap in the face — the players that held Broberg back (Edmonton’s veteran defenders in Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, and the departed David Desharnais), are the ones who will have to be sacrificed to keep Broberg at a higher cost while being traded at a greater premium with opposing teams having more leverage. Conversely, it raises the price on Ceci and Kulak, who must now be kept on the roster at the cost of losing a valuable prospect; a prospect who became part of their top four in the playoffs.

The same could be said about Holloway, who was sent to the minors earlier in the year to make room for Adam Henrique (fine) and Sam Carrick (dumb). So because the NHL is not a development league, Edmonton is now paying non-development prices on developing players (as is St. Louis, to be fair). As Allan Mitchell pointed out at The Athletic, this is also just the Edmonton model chickens coming home to roost. Between Leon Draisatl’s season in juniors, two bridge deals for Darnell Nurse, and a similar reckoning coming for Evan Bouchard, they continue giving away all their leverage to their players because well…turns out the philosophy of Win Now has a cost, which is the cost of NOT being in the business of development. It certainly didn’t help matters that Jeff Jackson prioritized a bunch of veteran signings in the offseason.

Few teams get this right though, Dallas included. Giving prospects more games loses you nothing except a blown shift, which happens all the time. Prospects should be treated like veterans: in the same way a veteran may not always provide the value they used to have, prospects may not always provide you the value they could have. It’s such a profound misstep that players with no future on a team (veteran stopgaps) must be played over players with untapped potential for the team’s future (prospects). Lest we forget, it was Honka’s failure — his game-winning goal to beat Arizona in overtime that helped put them into the standings where they ended up winning a lottery pick — that birthed its blueline future. Although I find this parallel universe wankery useless, imagine 2016 without injuries under Hitchcock instead of with the injuries they had, but under Ruff. It’s a pointless exercise, but a pointless exercise nonetheless illustrating a pointless philosophy.

What am I asking? Just give everyone equal amounts of rope. This does not mean prospects should be guaranteed full seasons, or that they should be valued more than veterans; only that teams should have strategies for integrating prospects into their roster — not plans. “Prove it to us” is not a strategy. Roster spots should not be so sacred that you have to sacrifice learning new truths just to preserve old facts.

So good on you, Doug Armstrong. Shame on you, Edmonton.