Dallas' win over Tampa, the Heiskanen and offense debate, and previewing the Carolina matchup
Today's edition of Stars Stuff.
It was the perfect matchup, Dallas vs. Tampa Bay, two teams (at the time) ranked third in their respective divisions, but who were third in outcome only. While the Lightning have lost their playoff spot, their positive differential over Buffalo and Boston speaks to a stronger long term fortune. Same thing with Dallas, whose +22 is second in the Central, and the entire Western Conference.
And the Stars played strong, unlocking that mythic 60-minute performance on the road no less. The player that deserves the spotlight is Ilya Lyubushkin, although I’m gonna tread more carefully than you might anticipate. I was having this discussion (really a brief exchange) on Twitter, and a user mentioned how wrong we all were about the physical Russian defender. I thought to myself, “yea but I don’t think anyone disliked Lyubushkin so much as disliked Lyubushkin with Matt Dumba and Brendan Smith. I’m sure my response was measured.”
Then I looked back at what I said at the time. Nope. I was as cold as the harshest critics, despite softening the outlook at a macro level. Granted, there’s a huge asterisk here, and it’s one of the reasons why I’m not gonna call 19 games proof of anything: Lyubushkin, historically, has not been a good defender.
However, while history and future are intimately linked—which makes me suspicious of any evaluation of Lyubushkin as anything more than an overachiever—I don’t believe his current stretch is an illusion either. Playing primarily with Thomas Harley, his performance is in keeping with his brief stay in Toronto, where his underlying numbers were excellent next to a defender with a very similar profile in Morgan Reilly. As a result, he’s doing all the little things, even in transition.
Again, one of the reasons why I like Corey’s data so much: the added ingredients get us closer to a better assessment of defensemen, whose job is really what they do in that battle for the knife in the mud — as opposed to whether they star or co-star in the boxscore. However, I’m not ready to make judgments one or the other.1 But I am ready to give credit where credit is due. Lyubushkin has played extremely well within his role.
It was thematically fitting that on the same night, Roope Hintz looked like the Hintz of old: a sudden underachiever. Or was he? That was the point of our discussion last week.
Into the weeds with Corey Sznajder's microdata on the Dallas Stars (and a digression on Roope Hintz)
It was a good night versus San Jose the other day.
Thankfully, we didn’t have to wait long for the pendulum to swing back. Hintz is having a better year than he’s deserved thus far, and the new top line is helping him deliver on more than just histograms and bar charts. Hintz with Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston is by no means “out of the woods.” That’s not to say anything about them is suspicious, numbers wise; only that Robertson still lags, and so does Johnston in many ways — just for different reasons. Stars fans have every reason to keep the faith, and Saturday night gave them a good argument.
Of course, while the Stars continue to buy themselves room, the Colorado Avalanche have officially entered the chat; thanks in part to lots of returning faces. This Central race is on. The division looked weak to begin the year, but now contains the two top teams in the league, with Dallas and Colorado just below them. As the cliche goes, iron sharpens iron. Looks like the Stars will be spending a lot of time in the forge.
Miro Heiskanen’s offense
I was having this discussion with Gavin Spittle the other day; or I should say, we were having the discussion that Stars fans always have when it comes to Heiskanen — his offense.
Heiskanen will be 26 next year. By that time he will have seven seasons under his belt. The reason Heiskanen’s offense is so often a linchpin for debate is that he had an offensive coming out party in the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and broke 70 points two seasons ago. However, like a reverse Chekhov’s Gun, it hasn’t been particularly relevant. Hopefully this stat will bury the hatchet in this discussion. Since 2007, Heiskanen’s 1.47 points per hour in all situations rates below Devon Toews, who also doesn’t make the top 40 in defensemen production. The 2020 Cup run and the 2022-2023 season just make it easier for fans to create false narratives around his potential rather than his output.
Plot twist: having said that, expect him to go on a heater soon. While Heiskanen has some meager point totals right now, his offense (as in, his offense outside of production) has been blistering. In fact, he’s one spot shy of being top 10 in expected goals above replacement level among defenders (adjusted for minutes). Focus on the blue bar, which looks at the offensive portion of a player’s goal impact.
That’s absurd.
Heiskanen is a great defenseman. Fans don’t want to leave it at that and I get it. There’s a good chance he’s about to have an incredible run of point production, and we’ll return to the discussion once more. But it’s time to move on, regardless of what happens. He’s great for reasons that connect to the modern game, and how a defender shuts opponents down in modern ways. His offense is incidental in the same way Columbo’s jacket is: sure it looks nice, but that’s not what makes him a great detective.
Dallas vs. Carolina
As usual, Carolina is one of the best teams in the league, and as usual, they’re the best possession team in the league by a yardstick. Thankfully, the Stars are finally getting where they’ve typically been.
The Hurricanes are buoyed by the astonishing run of one, Martin Necas2. Yea his 33 points is impressive, but if you’ve been watching him, he really is on a different level.
It should make for mandatory viewing. To me the biggest story is gonna be whether Robertson can continue building and what has been his best run of games this year — and no, that isn’t saying much. But the effort has been there, and now the talent is there to give him the necessary crutches. One thing we can more or less forget about for the night: the power play. I know it’s a big deal, and I don’t want to downplay it, but come on; the Hurricanes are beasts on the PK, and always have been. Yea it’s no excuse, but it’s a better one than excuses they’ve had lately.
Also, Corey’s data is a lot less kind to Lyubushkin in previous seasons, so it’s not like Corey’s data actively contradicts Micah’s shift-to-shift single value stat.
Cough. I knew it! Cough.
For what it's worth, IMHO Miro will always be linked to the fact that we could have draft Makar, with his unbelievable offensive talent.
That's not fair at all by the way.
Miro doesn't need to be taken off the first unit of the PP, but is he the best point runner available on the roster?
Would it be worth trying a forward at point and having Miro in a high slot position?