Really dug the discussion around here. Never seen this many comments. Keep in mind, comments do jack shit for traffic, and analytics, but they're my favorite type of engagement. Let me sum up my thoughts:
- Lian Bichsel is my favorite prospect. I think he has top four potential, even now.
- BUT...if there's no way to fit him into that top four while Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell are Dallas' main left-handers (Bichsel may have experience on his offside, but he doesn't play there and never has*), and he can bring back an important piece with term who would increase the odds of the Stars winning the Cup, then hell yes I do it.
Reads like this are why Stars Stack is my favorite. I have heard very little conversation around this issue with Bichsel and roster construction except from you. The org obviously has some sort of plan and it will be interesting to see what happens. Great take on the D being this issue as everything on the backend magically improved last year when Tanev came to town. Great work!!
You had me until Harley. I'm just not giving up that level of skill in transition offense -- especially when he's still got defensive growth ahead per the usual aging curves with D.
I only mentioned Harley as a potential piece; not as a necessary one. I think my thing is, if fans believe Bichsel is a top four defender, then the only way he gets moved into the top four is if a current top four defender gets moved out. Otherwise Bichsel is stuck on the third pair for the next five years.
I don't think that holds true, beyond an on paper looks.
As an example, Brett Pesce is currently an on paper 3rd pair guy for NJ, until you look at the usage to see he leads the team in avg TOI.
So by my estimate, Bischel would slide up in usage as Lindell & Jones slid down, which would likely make those contracts look that much better as they age out.
I'd offer up Dumba & Lyubuskin @ 50%, if it could get Chicago too retain 50% on Jones.
Block up a chunks for Harley & Bichsel's & get Jones at a manageable number. Dumba & Lyubuskin could be swapped for more asset this TDL or used in a supporting role for a developing defense next season and then sold at the next deadline for assets if playoffs are out if reach.
Toss in a lesser pick or prospect so it can look like a W for Chicago, then get weird and trade Lundkvist & a 1st for Karlsson @ 50%.
Bichsel is my favorite prospect, but some fans (not necessarily you Z, because I know we're theorycrafting) need to pump the brakes here. There's no way Bichsel eats into Lindell's minutes while Lindell is here. Even if he started to hit that level - which would take time, as he's not there yet - the coaches would never trust a developing player so quickly. As long as the top four has seniority over him, he's getting third pair minutes whether he deserves more or not.
That's how I read it, I'm just saying no way :) Too rare of a skill set for that body type. We can wait until Bichsel's agent complains to the press about not enough ice time before making a call of that magnitude.
Dallas desperately needs a fourth top 4 defenseman. Lundkvist's 14:30/game at even strength is the third lowest total for a 4D since 2007-08. The other teams in that vicinity are... not great.
Jones's value is in line with a second pairing D-man which is exactly what the Stars need. He's not bad, but he's way overpaid. If Chicago and/or someone else retains some salary, I'd be all for the Stars pulling the trigger on a trade.
I also think Jones would be much better on a deeper team. He's been a top pairing guy on some weak teams ever since he got traded to Columbus. Impact models seem to struggle with edge cases like him when a decent player gets overexposed on a bad team (see also Ristolainen's impacts improving massively in Philadelphia).
Absolutely. I'd prefer to trade Nils and have Chicago eat 30-50% of Seth's contract... I think Harley would be better used to try to trade for Andersson, if we're just adding one guy...
Biggest takeaway from this article: Seth Jones has the best agent in sports.
Seth Jones is the only NHLer I’ve seen playing when he was a kid. I think he’s a solid defenseman. I wouldn’t trade Harley and $6.5 million is, to me, still steep.
Is it me or did all the discussion just blow right past Lindell as if he didn't exist? He's the Dude of Defensemen - he just abides. Doesn't do anything particularly great, doesn't do anything particularly bad. Why not try a straight up offer of Lindell for Jones?
My guess is there is going to have to be a hockey trade for Bichsel or Harley in the offseason.
The unfortunate thing is that both of them bring skills that Dallas blue line needs going forward. Harley with offense, puck moving and aggressiveness, Bichsel with his physical presence along with moving the puck.
Lian on a bridge deal after his ELC should fix any cap issue long term.
2 year bridge is kinda iffy as it would line up with Miro off the books, but a 3 year bridge would line up with Lindell (& Jones if we trade for him) coming off the books.
Harley's raise is neatly tucked away in the Dumba deal & the Bichsel bridge would start with Lyubuskin off the books.
Great discussion, and I appreciate the argument of how to fit Bichsel into the top 4. With that, and how Jim Nill does like to make moves but also plans for the future, I wonder if the plan won't be to go after a big name forward and then go the rental route on D. That way, Bichsel's trajectory isn't sabotaged and you still get someone this year that can play big minutes. I wonder if we could swing a combo from the following (as examples):
Forwards (take 1): JT Miller, Brock Nelson, Ryan O'Reilly
Defenseman (take 1): David Savard, Marcus Petterson, Ivan Provorov
Probably have to sacrifice too much here, and I realize these defensemen don't solve the PP QB issue, but just a thought (or the amateur beginnings of one).
Where's the "Thanks for catching up bro! I was convinced several seasons ago when we tried to sign the dude, but Chicago threw OMFG!!! money at the home town kid that couldn't be passed up." button on the survey?
If Chicago would retain, Jones would be a great add on the Top 4. This makes sense if this organization is serious in getting the Cup back in Dallas.
If I am not mistaken, I think that the Harley trade part of your piece is not related to getting Jones. I think you meant to use Harley in a hockey trade in order to get a player like Dobson. This would make perfect sense when you look at the left side of our D Corps.
This trade could be done in the off season after the TDL trade of Jones. Then you would have for next season the following:
Miro-Dobson
Lindell-Jones
Bichsel-Lyu
This unless the organization wants to have Miro on his weak side for his entire career in Dallas.
Great article and some great comments. As I’ve said previously, I’m not a fan of getting anyone who is just waiting around to go back to Toronto or where ever. Jones is from here and I’d be very surprised if he wouldn’t jump at the chance to come ‘home’. That being said, extra initiative and motivation combined with a strong ‘room’ would probably be all he’d need to take that extra step. Nill is the $$ man - he can make it happen.
Definitely was a "No" on Seth Jones due to huge cap hit for years to come. You make some good points, but I wouldn't give up Harley. Is it worth taking the cap hit for another $6-7MM a year for Seth Jones when you have four great defensemen in Miro, Harley, Lindell (who I think is one of the best unheralded shut down defenders in the league now),and Bischel?Most teams would kill for those top four. Is it better to make do with a 3rd line of Lybushkin, Lundkvist, Smith, Dumba than spend that kind of $ for a little more offense? Jones would still leave a noticeable gap where we get hit hard already: on zone entries (how many times have we seen the Stars get beat and Otter has to bail things out?)... What if Lundkvist gets better, Lybushkin punches above his weight class for another year....I'd say maybe some of the scenarios work if Chicago keeps at least half of that $9.5AAV albatross.....
He's been training to play right side since back in Rogle.
While I don't see him cementing a top 4 spot any time soon, I could see him getting top 4 usage in a rotation that gets the group closer to 20 mins per defender as a whole. (At least for regular season play)
When?? I've never seen Bichsel play RHD except in corner cases. Only time I hear about Bichsel at RHD is when random media members mention it as a possibility.
What kills me personally is hearing or reading about the organization trying to fix problems that they created (or were not able to fix) by "forcing" players in roles and/or position where they cannot perform at their best.
This instead of building properly.
To my point, Miro (our unicorn D) has played 557 NHL regular and PO games with Dallas, and I ask, when did this organization gave him his Toews? Or his Hronek?
LOL, even the Habs are playing Hutson with Matheson, and it's Matheson that plays on the right side. And Hutson IS the rookie.
The Leksands series back in Rogle. He was the RD in a double LD pairing of him & Patrick Noren.
A 3 game playoff set does not mean consistent deployment at RD, but i think it does point towards something similar too how we've experimented at times this season with Lindell on the right side.
It seems Dallas Management likes to move the new guys along slowly (Harley for example) so yeah, I don't know we would see that much of Bichsel this year, but why get saddled with a Seth Jones contract at, say $6MM a year, when you can wait half a season, get Bichsel with a rookie contract and more upside starting next year? OK, so back to winning this year: Granted, there would be some limping along with what we have the rest of this year unless we get a lower priced Defenseman as a rental. I just don't see the value of the cap hit against Jones' capability. I don't even want to think about if he gets injured again if we traded for him....
I absolutely love Bichsel and his potential (proven to me at this point!)… but as I believe his natural aggression will be stifled by “preferred soft” coaching… trade him to where his potential won’t be limited!
Really dug the discussion around here. Never seen this many comments. Keep in mind, comments do jack shit for traffic, and analytics, but they're my favorite type of engagement. Let me sum up my thoughts:
- Lian Bichsel is my favorite prospect. I think he has top four potential, even now.
- BUT...if there's no way to fit him into that top four while Heiskanen, Harley, and Lindell are Dallas' main left-handers (Bichsel may have experience on his offside, but he doesn't play there and never has*), and he can bring back an important piece with term who would increase the odds of the Stars winning the Cup, then hell yes I do it.
*Not with any serious consistency at least.
Reads like this are why Stars Stack is my favorite. I have heard very little conversation around this issue with Bichsel and roster construction except from you. The org obviously has some sort of plan and it will be interesting to see what happens. Great take on the D being this issue as everything on the backend magically improved last year when Tanev came to town. Great work!!
Appreciate the kind words, Jeff. Means a lot!
You had me until Harley. I'm just not giving up that level of skill in transition offense -- especially when he's still got defensive growth ahead per the usual aging curves with D.
I only mentioned Harley as a potential piece; not as a necessary one. I think my thing is, if fans believe Bichsel is a top four defender, then the only way he gets moved into the top four is if a current top four defender gets moved out. Otherwise Bichsel is stuck on the third pair for the next five years.
I don't think that holds true, beyond an on paper looks.
As an example, Brett Pesce is currently an on paper 3rd pair guy for NJ, until you look at the usage to see he leads the team in avg TOI.
So by my estimate, Bischel would slide up in usage as Lindell & Jones slid down, which would likely make those contracts look that much better as they age out.
I'd offer up Dumba & Lyubuskin @ 50%, if it could get Chicago too retain 50% on Jones.
Block up a chunks for Harley & Bichsel's & get Jones at a manageable number. Dumba & Lyubuskin could be swapped for more asset this TDL or used in a supporting role for a developing defense next season and then sold at the next deadline for assets if playoffs are out if reach.
Toss in a lesser pick or prospect so it can look like a W for Chicago, then get weird and trade Lundkvist & a 1st for Karlsson @ 50%.
Miro-Lindell
Harley-Jones
Bichsel-Karlsson
(5on5/ PK+/PP+) - (PK leader)
(PP2/PK2) - (PK+/PP+)
(PK+/D-Zone starts) - (PP1/ O-Zone starts)
Bichsel is my favorite prospect, but some fans (not necessarily you Z, because I know we're theorycrafting) need to pump the brakes here. There's no way Bichsel eats into Lindell's minutes while Lindell is here. Even if he started to hit that level - which would take time, as he's not there yet - the coaches would never trust a developing player so quickly. As long as the top four has seniority over him, he's getting third pair minutes whether he deserves more or not.
That's why I'm more than happy with stashing any game tape on Bichsel's personal hiccups in the minors until playoffs.
"Keep up those NHL details."
That's how I read it, I'm just saying no way :) Too rare of a skill set for that body type. We can wait until Bichsel's agent complains to the press about not enough ice time before making a call of that magnitude.
Moving Harley kind of defeats the purpose of getting Jones.
Moving Harley is a ridiculous idea...Move Miro for the Motherload!
Dallas desperately needs a fourth top 4 defenseman. Lundkvist's 14:30/game at even strength is the third lowest total for a 4D since 2007-08. The other teams in that vicinity are... not great.
Jones's value is in line with a second pairing D-man which is exactly what the Stars need. He's not bad, but he's way overpaid. If Chicago and/or someone else retains some salary, I'd be all for the Stars pulling the trigger on a trade.
I also think Jones would be much better on a deeper team. He's been a top pairing guy on some weak teams ever since he got traded to Columbus. Impact models seem to struggle with edge cases like him when a decent player gets overexposed on a bad team (see also Ristolainen's impacts improving massively in Philadelphia).
I think Seth Jones is exactly to the defense what J.T. Miller would be to the offense.
I hadn't thought of that comparison, but it totally makes sense to me from an on-ice perspective.
Absolutely. I'd prefer to trade Nils and have Chicago eat 30-50% of Seth's contract... I think Harley would be better used to try to trade for Andersson, if we're just adding one guy...
Biggest takeaway from this article: Seth Jones has the best agent in sports.
Seth Jones is the only NHLer I’ve seen playing when he was a kid. I think he’s a solid defenseman. I wouldn’t trade Harley and $6.5 million is, to me, still steep.
If he’s not part of the rebuild in Chicago then he’s available for futures with a good chunk of retained money and I’m interested. Otherwise, I’m not.
If he can be brought in at 6.5m AAV and without giving up Harley I'm all in. I agree they need a top 4D more than a forward
Is it me or did all the discussion just blow right past Lindell as if he didn't exist? He's the Dude of Defensemen - he just abides. Doesn't do anything particularly great, doesn't do anything particularly bad. Why not try a straight up offer of Lindell for Jones?
This would be my dream scenario but he has a NMC this year, and a NTC for the next four. Bleh.
This roster construction question has been looming since the day the ink on Lindell extension was signed.
My guess is there is going to have to be a hockey trade for Bichsel or Harley in the offseason.
The unfortunate thing is that both of them bring skills that Dallas blue line needs going forward. Harley with offense, puck moving and aggressiveness, Bichsel with his physical presence along with moving the puck.
Lian on a bridge deal after his ELC should fix any cap issue long term.
2 year bridge is kinda iffy as it would line up with Miro off the books, but a 3 year bridge would line up with Lindell (& Jones if we trade for him) coming off the books.
Harley's raise is neatly tucked away in the Dumba deal & the Bichsel bridge would start with Lyubuskin off the books.
Great discussion, and I appreciate the argument of how to fit Bichsel into the top 4. With that, and how Jim Nill does like to make moves but also plans for the future, I wonder if the plan won't be to go after a big name forward and then go the rental route on D. That way, Bichsel's trajectory isn't sabotaged and you still get someone this year that can play big minutes. I wonder if we could swing a combo from the following (as examples):
Forwards (take 1): JT Miller, Brock Nelson, Ryan O'Reilly
Defenseman (take 1): David Savard, Marcus Petterson, Ivan Provorov
Probably have to sacrifice too much here, and I realize these defensemen don't solve the PP QB issue, but just a thought (or the amateur beginnings of one).
Where's the "Thanks for catching up bro! I was convinced several seasons ago when we tried to sign the dude, but Chicago threw OMFG!!! money at the home town kid that couldn't be passed up." button on the survey?
David Castillo for GM
Great piece.
If Chicago would retain, Jones would be a great add on the Top 4. This makes sense if this organization is serious in getting the Cup back in Dallas.
If I am not mistaken, I think that the Harley trade part of your piece is not related to getting Jones. I think you meant to use Harley in a hockey trade in order to get a player like Dobson. This would make perfect sense when you look at the left side of our D Corps.
This trade could be done in the off season after the TDL trade of Jones. Then you would have for next season the following:
Miro-Dobson
Lindell-Jones
Bichsel-Lyu
This unless the organization wants to have Miro on his weak side for his entire career in Dallas.
Great article and some great comments. As I’ve said previously, I’m not a fan of getting anyone who is just waiting around to go back to Toronto or where ever. Jones is from here and I’d be very surprised if he wouldn’t jump at the chance to come ‘home’. That being said, extra initiative and motivation combined with a strong ‘room’ would probably be all he’d need to take that extra step. Nill is the $$ man - he can make it happen.
Definitely was a "No" on Seth Jones due to huge cap hit for years to come. You make some good points, but I wouldn't give up Harley. Is it worth taking the cap hit for another $6-7MM a year for Seth Jones when you have four great defensemen in Miro, Harley, Lindell (who I think is one of the best unheralded shut down defenders in the league now),and Bischel?Most teams would kill for those top four. Is it better to make do with a 3rd line of Lybushkin, Lundkvist, Smith, Dumba than spend that kind of $ for a little more offense? Jones would still leave a noticeable gap where we get hit hard already: on zone entries (how many times have we seen the Stars get beat and Otter has to bail things out?)... What if Lundkvist gets better, Lybushkin punches above his weight class for another year....I'd say maybe some of the scenarios work if Chicago keeps at least half of that $9.5AAV albatross.....
Again -- and this is not to be hostile -- because I still haven't heard anyone answer this one: how does Bichsel crack the top four any time soon?
With an injury to one of the top 4, that's the only way. You're right about Jones. But moving Harley, the future Captain would be suicide.
He's been training to play right side since back in Rogle.
While I don't see him cementing a top 4 spot any time soon, I could see him getting top 4 usage in a rotation that gets the group closer to 20 mins per defender as a whole. (At least for regular season play)
When?? I've never seen Bichsel play RHD except in corner cases. Only time I hear about Bichsel at RHD is when random media members mention it as a possibility.
What kills me personally is hearing or reading about the organization trying to fix problems that they created (or were not able to fix) by "forcing" players in roles and/or position where they cannot perform at their best.
This instead of building properly.
To my point, Miro (our unicorn D) has played 557 NHL regular and PO games with Dallas, and I ask, when did this organization gave him his Toews? Or his Hronek?
LOL, even the Habs are playing Hutson with Matheson, and it's Matheson that plays on the right side. And Hutson IS the rookie.
The Leksands series back in Rogle. He was the RD in a double LD pairing of him & Patrick Noren.
A 3 game playoff set does not mean consistent deployment at RD, but i think it does point towards something similar too how we've experimented at times this season with Lindell on the right side.
This was best point in article. Most are overlooking the best 4 D don’t match up on the roster based on R and L.
It seems Dallas Management likes to move the new guys along slowly (Harley for example) so yeah, I don't know we would see that much of Bichsel this year, but why get saddled with a Seth Jones contract at, say $6MM a year, when you can wait half a season, get Bichsel with a rookie contract and more upside starting next year? OK, so back to winning this year: Granted, there would be some limping along with what we have the rest of this year unless we get a lower priced Defenseman as a rental. I just don't see the value of the cap hit against Jones' capability. I don't even want to think about if he gets injured again if we traded for him....
I absolutely love Bichsel and his potential (proven to me at this point!)… but as I believe his natural aggression will be stifled by “preferred soft” coaching… trade him to where his potential won’t be limited!
No need to trade him that soon. Bichsel's shelf life is much much longer than PDB`s
Jim Nill will do nothing till after the four nations