Hear Me Out: Seth Jones makes a lot of sense for Dallas

Let's get into a debate.

You may have heard Jeff Marek talking about a Seth Jones homecoming to Dallas at his new stomping grounds at Daily Faceoff. Just saying: that’s the inspiration for today.

2013 was the year I came into my own as a draft nerd. I remember my half-assed opinions like it was yesterday. “Why is Hunter Shinkaruk falling? He’s top 15 material!” And. “Colorado, Florida, and Tampa are gonna regret passing on Seth Jones!”

Being a nerd might make you knowledgeable, but it doesn’t make you wise. Only Tampa Bay ended up looking like donks for passing on the 6’4 defender with Nathan MacKinnon and Aleksander Barkov leading their teams to eventual championships. Shinkaruk became a capital-B bust. But I learned the names and started watching things like the Memorial Cup, and World Juniors. Prospect hockey became my favorite hockey. There’s just something a little more pure about it, where players are free to be peculiar, and not just bricks on the whiteboard wall.

This obviously has nothing to do with the analysis we’re about to dig into, but paying attention to players in their draft years always adds an extra bit of context. My personal opinion is that I don’t think scouts really knew what to do with Jones. Hockey has always had big defenders, and small defenders. But how often did it have a big defender who could play a small man’s game? I suspect it’s why public scouting services figured he had to be great at everything. If he’s big, he can be physical. If he’s talented, he can score. “All of their strengths, none of their weaknesses.”

But that’s not the player Jones was, or ended up being. However, falling short of expectations doesn’t mean bad or even deficient. It could mean, simply, misunderstood. That’s the category I believe Jones falls under. Admittedly I’m biased. I love Jones’ story, and he’s a Texan! Not every day Texas gets to do that boring, saccharine Toronto Maple Leaf “coming home” trope, but Jones is the exception. But I’ll try to keep tabs on the limits of that bias.

Also, I want to be clear on the thesis from the outset, because I don’t think it’s discussed enough. Yes, Dallas needs offense. And they need help on the power play. But who does Dallas miss more? Joe Pavelski or Chris Tanev? It’s okay to be wrong and say Pavelski. Maybe you forgot how critical Tanev was in getting the one-on-one matchups with Jack Eichel¹, Nathan MacKinnon, and Connor McDavid. But Tanev is the player Dallas misses the most.

In fact, let’s linger on this point. It’s not a coincidence that Dallas keeps having these defensive lapses where they score, and immediately allow a goal back. They can no longer roll out multiple shutdown defenders who can also control the puck. It’s also there in the shot quality splits. In expected goals-for per 60, Dallas ranks 3rd. In expected goals-against per 60, they rank 18th (!). If you think defense isn’t a problem just because the goalies are doing their job, you’ve got another thing coming.

I’m not here to argue that the Stars need a defender instead of a forward. Thankfully, Dallas will have enough cap to do both: trade for a defender, and a Tyler Seguin replacement. But I do think a top four defender is as important as a top six forward, if not slightly more. Chances are, Pete DeBoer would agree. Just look at the icetime distribution.

Now…is Jones that guy?

His career at a glance

In terms of shift-to-shift value, and the translation of that value into wins based on Evolving-Hockey’s WAR model, Jones has had an erratic, but mostly solid career. Two years in Columbus, and he was worth over four points in the standings, which is right there with prime Zdeno Chara, Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, and Alex Pietrangelo (at least per their metric). Point being, Jones has the pedigree of a number one defender, even if it’s been fleeting. He’s never been outright awful despite the discourse. Except that one season.

Click here to learn more about Evolving-Hockey’s above-replacement models.

One piece in Jones’ favor here is that his worst seasons are explainable: injuries. He had a second-degree MCL sprain in 2018-2019 and ankle surgery in 2020.

However, shift-to-shift value is, I realize, still a nebulous concept for some fans. “What matters are points.” Fine. Production-wise, Jones is extremely reliable. Better than 75 percent of his peers in terms of points-per-game, he’s had star seasons in terms of defensive production for the vast majority of his career. In fact, if he wasn’t buried in Nashville early on behind Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, that percentile likely looks a lot better.

His 425 points since 2013-2014 is 14th among all active defenders, even over John Klingberg.

On the surface, Jones is a big-bodied defender who famously has some defensive hiccups, but can mostly hold his own while adding consistent offense from the backend — arguably Dallas’ greatest need.

Digging deep

Jones does have a pretty significant flaw, and it’s followed him his entire career. I recommend reading JFresh’s analysis from 2020 in full.

Is Seth Jones Actually Elite?

But the TL;DR portion is that he’s consistently poor at defending zone entries. Opponents attack him with possession, frequently, and successfully. This year has been no different.

Click here to learn more about Corey Sznajder’s A3Z data.

However, from 2016 until 2021, Corey Sznajder’s tracking data below reveals Jones to be an elite player in almost every other category away from zone entry defense: not just as a blueline shooter, but as a blueline passer who cultivates transition of the puck between zones, and can reliably exit with speed. So much so, that he’s downright comparable to Miro Heiskanen.

The bottom line

Despite getting up there in age, Jones has maintained a pretty consistent profile that looks a lot like Harley.

Click here to learn more about JFresh’s hockey cards.

What’s important to note is that Jones has basically toiled away for most of his career. Except for a few seasons when the Blue Jackets were decent, and when he was buried in Nashville, he’s never had a group elevate his game.

In Dallas, he would likely be paired with Esa Lindell, where his defensive gaffes would be mitigated. While I find the concept of symmetry to be a lazy shorthand for chemistry, I do think it matches here. Jones being able to transition quickly, and Lindell being able to shutdown entries (where Jones struggles) means their worst traits would be offset by one another. This is why Tanev worked with Lindell where Jani Hakanpaa couldn’t: Lindell and Hakanpaa meant they were always playing defense. Tanev could actually move the puck up ice. Granted, Jones is not Tanev. But what he lacks in Tanev’s shutdown DNA he makes up for in clean breakouts and being able to outright finish plays.

Let’s say that Dallas is able to move out one of Brenden Smith, Matt Dumba, or Nils Lundkvist. Lundkvist makes sense as someone Chicago might be interested in taking back. After all, Chicago is playing with Louis Crevier and T.J. Brodie on the right right side. Doesn’t this look like a quality blueline going into the playoffs?

Thomas Harley — Miro Heiskanen

Esa Lindell - Seth Jones

Lian Bichsel — Ilya Lyubushkin

I would argue it’s better than the top six from last season. It gives four defenders DeBoer can trust to play top four minutes, a bottom pair that can scrap, and even adds offense.

Obviously, the big sticking point is that Jones has a cap hit of $9.5 million in AAV until 2030. Is there a way for Chicago to retain salary? If Dallas could bring his cap down to, say, $6.5 million in AAV, would that work for Stars fans? With rumors of the cap going up to $92.4 million, it’s possible that teams might be more likely to consider it. Especially if Jim Nill is willing to give up assets in return.

With Jones not being seen as a real trade target, I doubt he would fetch much to begin with. They wouldn’t ask for Bichsel, and I don’t see them asking for Bourque either. Chicago already has a ton of small, playmaking forwards. If anything, they’d probably be looking at someone like Emil Hemming. I also wonder, in thinking about future contracts, if it wouldn’t make sense to include Thomas Harley in the deal.

Yes, I know how silly that sounds. But if you follow me on Twitter, you know where I’m going with this. If you really believe Bichsel is a top four defender, then he has to replace someone, right? It can’t be Lindell. It can’t be Heiskanen, if they ever put him on his strongside. Why not Harley? Bichsel’s experience playing his offside is basically the same as Heiskanen before entering the NHL. We’re really gonna do this all over again? Bichsel is one of the very few untouchables Dallas has in my personal opinion. But if he’s not even a roster option right now, and doesn’t project to play anywhere in the top four, are you really gonna say no if he brings back Rasmus Andersson, for example?

We’re off topic, I know. What I like about the concept of this trade is that I really believe the market is not where Dallas should be: they should be looking for a hockey trade. Before he was lost for the season, someone like Noah Dobson would have been perfect. I don’t know that the Stars can get away with being so frugal with their assets. Nick Suzuki turned out to be a fantastic, franchise player. But ask Vegas if they care. In addition, I really believe defense is what the Stars need to improve. Ilya Lyubushkin should be on the third pair, where he can excel and not just be an overachiever.

But I get it. Without making the cap work, it’s all kind of moot. Nonetheless, I don’t think Jones is as bad as he’s sometimes made out to be. And envisioning a potential trade there illustrates where I believe Dallas needs the real upgrade. After all, Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin will return. Johnston and Stankoven may improve. How does the blueline improve without actual additions?

1. They straight up lose the Vegas series with him, IMO.