How Does It Affect The Stars? Suspensions galore, Craig Berube's firing, and the Perfect Win fallacy
Dallas in action tonight. What about the rest of the NHL's action?
Dallas is in action tonight, which makes it feel like the start of the season again, back when the Stars’ schedule felt like it was organized on a keyboard with sausage links. They’re up against the struggling Senators. Actually, “struggling” is an understatement. This is a team in open rebellion against itself, with the coach and the players all calling each other out.
It’s a weird time for Stars fans. Now’s the time to be thinking about the future. As the sci-fi cliché goes, the future is already here, it’s just distributed unevenly. After all, Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven are pro ready. Nill shouldn’t have to think about improving his forward group for at least another six years. But what’s the future of the blueline?
Nils Lundkvist will probably get scratched and it’ll continue to dominate the topic, and for good reason. Whatever your thoughts are on Lundkvist, this is on Jim Nill and Dallas’ scouts for thinking Lundkvist could manufacture some of what John Klingberg left behind and ultimately round out a fully fleshed blueline. Instead we’re looking at exposed bones. And yet the Stars are top three in the Central.
With so many things going on at once, it’s easy to miss the top line quietly returning to form. However, it’s come at the cost of the other two lines slowing down, especially Wyatt Johnston. Personally, I’m not too worried. He’s fourth in individual expected goals per 60 this year, just below Pavelski, Duchene, and Hintz. That’s higher than his expected goals per 60 last year. Meanwhile, he’s taking a full three extra shot attempts per hour this year versus last. The points will come again, and so will his momentum.
However, an interesting thing is happening. It might be nothing, but I consider it significant since I think a lot of people highlighted it as a unique wrinkle in his game (and something I neglected in my video analysis leading up to the season): his takeaways. At even strength, he generated 2.52 takeaways per hour last year. This year, he’s only generating 1.01. That seems somewhat significant, even if I feel like it won’t affect his bottom line long term.
The other problem is that his line with Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov are not doing anything. They’ve been outscored 8 to 6, and outshot 94 to 9 with a putrid 44 percent expected goal share. If any team is gonna get Johnston back on board, along with the line in general, it’s gonna be Ottawa.
Also, they looked awful versus an equally awful St. Louis team last night. Coming off a back-to-back: should be a piece of cake, right?
“Guns, guns, guns!” - Clarence Boddicker
This week was an absolute barnburner of stupidity. Artem Zub had his head crosschecked clean off because David Perron didn’t know who hit his captain. Erik Gudbrandon beat the ever-loving piss out of Nick Cousins because Cousins decked him in the numbers...hard.
Then there was the whole Eric Robinson hit (which I didn’t think was as bad). Ian Mendes talked about this being a powder keg. First off, credit to Mendes for not including the words “All 32 Teams” in the title. Second, he’s right.
I’ve said my peace on this topic, so I don’t want to repeat myself, but Detroit, Columbus, and Florida won’t be the last teams to endure this. Dallas endured this with the Matt Dumba hit on Pavelski. They were also on the other, less dramatic end of the spectrum with Jamie Benn’s idiotic crosscheck on Mark Stone. I’m not here to offer a fix, or pretend like a have more answers than I do indignation. But indignation is fine. It’s gonna be hard to change hockey culture without first, the sincere feeling that this league is not okay, and we shouldn’t be okay with how it tolerates this. If you don’t think one of your favorite Stars is on somebody’s Trouba bingo card in the near future, then you’ve got another thing coming.
Digression: I still can’t believe Sam Bennett never received a penalty for landing a legit Gennady Golovkin-esque right cross to Hintz’ face. It’s a perfect example of that thin line the NHL pretends doesn’t exist. If Bennett’s punch to Hintz’ face is ingnorable, then what’s it gonna take for a Star to get the referee’s attention? That’s the point in all this: players live in a paper bag, and hockey lets them rip. In a real league, that’s not how the rulebook or its violations would work.
St. Louis fires Craig Berube
One of the biggest stories of the week was Craig Berube’s firing, which Matthew DeFranks has done the best job of covering. I’ve seen a lot of people blaming Armstrong. Listen, I’ll be the first to hold a pitchfork across from men with lanyards, but I think Armstrong has given St. Louis a solid roster. It’s not his fault Colton Parayko’s injuries added up. Sure, they’re nothing special, but they’re not a tirefire either. Good goaltending and a rejevunated system might be all they need. I’m not bullish on them: but I look at a team like Winnipeg, and I see something similar with strong depth in the top nine (although somebody should check Jordan Kyrou’s pulse — well, before last night), and a functional, deep-ish blueline.
So how does this affect Dallas? You know exactly where I’m going with this. Let me just at the outset that no, I don’t think DeBoer is perfect. The Lundkvist situation is BS, and his obsession with stacking the top four with limited stay at home types is starting to become a genuine hindrance. However, DeBoer is a solid veteran coach. This isn’t about cheap gossip. It’s about the reality of coaching in the NHL. They have one of the highest turnover rates in all of pro sports. DeBoer is safe as long as Nill is here. But as soon as Nill moves up, his successor will be interested in whether or not DeBoer is living up to the team’s standards. Part of the problem is just how good Dallas was their first year. I think people saw how barely legible this team was under Bowness, and assumed a flawed roster instead of a flawed coach. Then we saw what a less flawed coach could do.
However, less flaws does not mean without flaws. And now there are no margins for error. Make no mistake: this team was in the final four last year, they got better, and now they’re performing...just okay. If they fail to make the Western Conference Finals, or worse, get booted in the first round (Dallas’ first round opponent is gonna be no joke this year), DeBoer’s leash is gonna be as short as the one he has on Lundkvist.
At which point, a Cup-winning coach like Berube starts to look like a good hire for a fresh GM. (I don’t think Berube would be a good hire, mind you.)
Jack Han and the Perfect Win Fallacy
I really love Han’s work and his writing. As a general rule, I can’t stand Toronto-based writers on general principle. Sure, I’m mostly kidding, but for Han, I make an exception.
The other day he wrote briefly about the fallacy of the ‘perfect win.’
I’m not gonna recap because I think we all get it: the “60 minute effort” is a myth. The point is not consistency in this sport, but consistency at the right moments. Hockey is too much chaos, and contains too many multitudes to capture certainty.
It’s worth keeping this in mind heading into a classic trap game. This is the centerpiece for what has always bothered me about people harping on the importance of “tough competition.” Of course competition matters. But on paper, Ottawa is not tough competition. On paper, they’re an easy out; a stepping stone in Dallas’ race to earn back their status at the top in the Central. In their own locker room, they’re literally cursing at the hockey gods as their coach laments his inevitable demise. They suck. But how much you wanna bet that Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle will be out to prove as violently as possible that they don’t suck? You think those will be easy shifts for Dallas’ defensemen? A “full 60” against players at that level is an impossible task.
Digression: this is no way directed at Dallas’ record, or meant to justify some of their poor performances. There’s a difference between an inconsistent performance brought on by the pendulum of adversity, and a team that is poorly constructed on the backend, and struggling in key areas. Dallas is a good team, so I’m not calling them bad either. But I just wanted to make that clear.
Stars Stack Notes
With the influx of paid subscribers, I just want to thank you all again. I didn’t expect this kind of support(especially around the holidays), and because I genuinely appreciate it, I’m gonna try to get some more original artwork if Ryan is willing. Here are the following players I’ve commissioned:
Miro Heiskanen (posted)
Roope Hintz (posted)
Jason Robertson (posted)
Jake Oettinger (TBD)
Joe Pavelski (posted)
Tyler Seguin (TBD)
Jamie Benn (posted)
Thomas Harley (posted)
Wyatt Johnston (TBD)
Matt Duchene (posted)
Mason Marchment (posted)
Logan Stankoven (TBD)
Lian Bichsel (posted)
Jim Nill (TBD)
Except for a couple, these are all done: I just haven’t found a good spot for them. In the summer I’ll put the artwork in one spot, likely as a post, with just a quick comment on each. And yes, I’m gonna add Mavrik Bourque if possible. And no, don’t send me your Ryan Suter requests.
I generally do one paid post a week, and two free ones, not counting postgame recaps and podcasts. I posted a link to all the paid posts so far in the Notes section yesterday, which you can access here:
For those who feel left out, don’t. For example, the Thomas Harley video analysis started out as a free article, and then I locked it. The Wyatt Johnston video analysis started out as locked, then I unlocked it, and now it’s locked again.
Next week will probably be a lot of game recap and recap-adjacent stuff. With three games sandwiched between tonight and Monday evening, we won’t be hurting for content, which is why I’m gonna move the Texas Stars report (which typically goes up every Tuesday) to Wednesday next week.
Subscribers: thank you for subscribing!
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Is PDB a good coach that ends up with unrealistic expectations because of his first year with a team, or a decent coach that benefits from the pieces that a previous coach leaves behind?
Unrealistic expectations side - When you get close to a cup, the expectation is never to take a year off, collect yourself and then try again. It is make some slight changes, and go get it the next year. If you don't get it that next year, you make a few bigger changes and try again. It ends up in a chase where you aren't anywhere near where you started. The image that comes to mind for me is a beauty that is aging. Rather than facing it with grace, they get a few nips and tucks. Then they decide that these weren't enough so they get more done and eventually end up a wax museum parody of their former selves. PDB hasn't had the time to age gracefully with teams, or to instill his sense of hockey because he's "in the window" and leaving that window means he failed.
Scrap yard coach - No coaching change is done by bringing in a guy who is exactly like the guy you canned. If that were the case, why go through the drama and the cost. The new coach is going to bring something different and pull the pendulum back to the center. Sometimes is works really well Sutter, Berube and other times you end up with the worst of both worlds. PDB clearly has mastered the transition and with Dallas was able to unleash offense and spark a Bennisance. He was able to reengage the team with great results. But was this all just a sugar rush and once the honeymoon phase is over you realize that you are playing a questionable system with a coach who just wants execution but doesn't know how to brew the secret sauce himself?
Clearly PDB is a combination of the two, but I vacillate on the % of column A vs B sometimes.
What a wonderful world it’d be if the league protected its players... imagine it, because it ain’t real.
5 min majors or even a game misconduct, will not reduce an idiot like Cousin’s hits. Only getting “justice by a man with big fists” will change his behavior, and teach him to show professional respect for his opponent. Hits like that end careers, ie livelihoods. Whatever happened to Dumba???
The hit on Larkin was just as cheap, and he has a history of neck issues. Peron just fired off before knowing who done it. But he’s still Larkin’s new best friend.
Ideally the league would respond strongly enough to the league assholes (we can see them, but the league doesn’t?) negating the need for “old school Wild West” retaliation. In both these cases the perp was NOT punished by the league... the retaliating player was.
When the league does not protect its players from dirty play, players have to protect their teammates.
The GMs that build teams that cannot protect your own, those teams skate a bit more carefully thru traffic. GMs that realize the Wild West is still needed, have stars who get a bit more room, who feel a bit bigger, braver, with a BIG brother standing behind them.
Nobody likes a man with big fists coming at them.
I’m convinced the Stone hit was an outlier... even if he’s one of the greatest puck thieves, he also is a mouthy sob... he has a cheap side (literally the only guy to shove Seguin in that last 10 yrs!), and he said something to Benn that hit a nerve. Benn is not a cheap shot player. That Stone never has come back at Benn for that face hit, means to me that Stone knows he crossed a line.