In The Wild: Stars re-sign Matt Duchene to a four-year, $4.5 million cap hit
Real reactions to a bargain contract. But what else is it?
The big question heading into this Stars offseason was always going to be how Jim Nill would manage the cap. With functionally no cap, and a lot of roster space to fill, everything has to be cost-controlled, and if not cost-controlled, it has to be a larger vision than simply bringing the band back together.
With Matt Duchene’s new contract — four years, $4.5 million AAV — Nill has the cost control part checked off his massive list.
On the surface, it’s really good. Yes, I had my own personal opinions about what to do with Dallas’ UFAs, but that is my own Magical Christmas Land. And so there’s no downside here. A $4.5 million player who led your team in points last year (sans Mikko Rantanen) is a steal any way you slice it. Edmonton just inexplicably payed a fourth liner (Trent Frederic) nearly the same amount at twice the term! Obviously, that’s a bar that rises below the earth’s core, and therefore not any kind of reasonable comp, but still. It’s a good deal.
More to the point, Duchene is a malleable player. He’s someone that could potentially fit into the top six or he’s someone that could once again drive a third line. This is one of the reasons why I felt like Duchene was more interesting than someone like Mikael Granlund. I can’t see Granlund grabbing Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin and pulling them up by their bootstraps. Duchene, however, has done it twice.
However, production is not half as interesting to me as value. So let’s peer under the hood. And yes, we’ll get to the playoff talking point. (Each stat has an explainer card in the caption, so if you want to learn more, be sure to click the link in each.)
At a glance
I gotta say. I’m still eager to dream big and see if Dallas ever revisits Duchene with Hintz, Johnston, Robertson, and Harley on that top unit (highlight below). Reunite them and this contract is worth it on that alone. All in all, though, Duchene is who we thought he was: strong offense from shift-to-shift, productive, doesn’t take penalties, can handle himself against tough competition, and seems to getting shockingly better.
This is where things get interesting. Duchene has never been the best defensive forward. Will he adjust? Can Dallas pair him with players who can offset his weaknesses?
This is where trading someone like Mason Marchment1, or reducing Tyler Seguin’s role — or bumping Duchene up the lineup — could pay huge dividends. Duchene is obviously talented. And he can carry a line. But he’s not perfect. Is there a way for him to excel as a better territorial forward? Maybe. Names like Reilly Smith and Connor Brown are the first that come to mind. Duchene’s contract should press Dallas into trading Marchment ASAP, but we’ll see. This is why I’m firmly in the ‘wait and see’ camp; not because I’m being wishy washy, but because Duchene is a valuable player, and there are ways to make him even more valuable beyond simply production.
Long term
While it’s impossible to guarantee value for the life of the contract, four years is really good. Not only did Duchene sign well below market value, but his projected net rating will still be second-line caliber by the end of it (mathematically speaking of course).
This is where I’m on board: while bringing back the Duchene “third” line is a possibility, the real value is creating something else. Duchene’s meager cap allows for that. Let’s face it. Duchene adds a lot more value to Marchment and Seguin’s bottom line than they do for him. They’ll be gone when he’s still here, which is kind of exciting. Especially if he’s here when Emil Hemming — who looks like the perfect winger next to Duchene — graduates. That potential chemistry has serious potential, and it’s not the first thing I thought of at the time. Now that I am, I like it a little more.
Into the weeds (tracking data)
Duchene was an absolute beast this year in all three zones. This is what carrying others looks like.
You’d like to see better pressure on the forecheck from a guy with his speed, but teams need to attack in different ways, and Duchene ensures that Dallas always has the option to attack off the rush.
Duchene’s scheduled impact (and special teams)
The projected impact (Micah’s synthetic goals highlight imminent value as opposed to historical) looks good here. Value added on offense from shift to shift, both at even-strength and special teams, with the only knock being his shift to shift defense.
Also worth noting Duchene’s setting value. He’s not a classic playmaker, but his ability in transition helps set up others. It’s something Dallas would have lost if they had let him go, and it’s worth emphasizing because the Stars don’t really have ton of it.
About that playoff talking point
For a lot of fans, this is the rub. “We need playoff performers. Duchene is not that!”
I get it. This is not just recency bias. We’re talking about two straight postseasons where Duchene went ghost. I won’t pretend like there is no such things as clutch. Of course there is. To me, that’s not the question. The real question is whether or not we should reasonably expect a player to score along their typical average from season into the next. Statistically, production tends to stabilize. (Graphic taken from Paul Pidutti at DailyFaceoff.)
Do I think Duchene is gonna go on magical heater next postseason? No. But I think we should reasonably expect him to be more productive than he’s been, and not just because his shooting percentage hit an extreme low. Consider his combo of individual chances + chances created for others. That’s just plain old bad luck. You may want to hear it and it may not fit into your own personal narrative, but that’s just the truth.
Again. This is not a Duchene apologia. I’m only talking about a reasonable expectation based on patterns: nothing else.
All in all, you can’t hate that contract. The real assessment will be what happens when all is said and done. It goes without saying that the Stars will shed cap. But do they find a way to fix the blueline? Do they add some nice value with low profile players? If Nill’s vision is configuring Duchene into a lineup with an improved blueline without sacrificing Jason Robertson, then this is golden. If not…well…let’s just wait and see.
Best Duchene highlight (that PP unit)
This needs to happen again because there was nothing like it. It was so good Dimitri Filipovic put together a six-minute mix.
Which appears to be the case per insider Cam Robinson. And yes, he’s one of the legit ones.
New HC improves the chances that Duchene isn't recycled into the same lines
Duchene is gonna be a signing we talk about all four years. Well done, Dallas!