Into The Weeds: Three generic ways Dallas can improve the power play

From a know-nothing critic.

Stars fans took no prisoners on Friday night versus the Rangers. What began as a hopeful night with Thomas Harley drawing back in and a potential end to the flu bug going around, ended with Steve Spott, Pete DeBoer, and the Dallas power play participants—still ranked 25th—getting dropped into a digital Hunger Games of criticism and anger. It was hard not to sympathize with fans, in part because it was such a disagreeable night in general. Worst of all, Dallas’ power play failed in response to one of the most absurdly illegal hits you’ll see all year when Matt Rempe elevated his 6’7 frame in order to elbow Miro Heiskanen in the head.¹

Before we begin, it’s important to keep things in perspective. Spott and DeBoer are famously close. Unless Dallas decides to fire the entire coaching staff, Spott is going nowhere. In addition, you won’t find examples of assistant coaches being fired in the middle of a season. The most recent cases, Todd Reirden in Pittsburgh and Darby Hendrickson in Minnesota, occurred at the end of lost seasons. The Stars season is hardly lost. Although it’s obviously slipping. Dallas is, after all, currently out of a playoff spot. Sure it’s misleading due to points percentage and goal differentials, but there’s nothing misleading about the power play problem.

The other aspect of maintaining perspective is this: what would a coaching change fix, right now? We’ll get into the nuts and bolts of this question, but for now, it’s important to emphasize that the Stars don’t just have a power play problem. They have a scoring problem. Dallas is 15th in goals-for at even strength, one spot below the abyss that is the Buffalo Sabres. In their stretch without Tyler Seguin since December 1st, they’ve scored 12 even-strength goals, 27th in the league.

This is not to make excuses. On the contrary, Seguin was ninth in team scoring last season; tenth in scoring on the power play — hardly a pillar of offense, at least historically. As fantastic as he was playing this year, he’s not Nikita Kucherov. So even though Seguin’s loss is having a tangible effect on Dallas, they have zero reason to crater so badly.

One thing I intend to avoid is discussing blame. This is on coaching and the players. Coaches exist to craft the systems, and the strategies. If players aren’t executing, it’s on coaches to figure out how to get them to execute. For example, if Miro Heiskanen is taking too many low danger point shots, then it’s on Heiskanen to stop taking them, just as it’s on the coaching staff to stop him from taking too many low danger point shots. I understand the impulse to blame Spott. Not only is it a valid impulse, it’s something of a looming cloud if postseason history is any indication. However, DeBoer is not a passenger here. And neither are the players.

If everything is bad, then what exactly can be done? I’d like to propose three things in no particular order. I’m probably more optimistic than most. Not only they do have the past to reference, but there is a foundation in my view.

Identify the weak links and stack the top unit

Last season, Dallas treated Joe Pavelski like the player he no longer was. While I see fans lament the loss of Pavelski, he was also a big part of Dallas’ offensive struggles once the top line slowed to a crawl and became below league average in shot quality differential. This season, we’re seeing the same thing with Jamie Benn. Below you’ll see player rates for shots on net, unblocked shots, shot attempts, and individual shot quality on the man advantage. The color coding is to indicate above (green) and below (red) the league average, with gradations representing different levels of good and bad. Critically, the average numbers have been adjusted for the defenders, so the stats for Heiskanen and Thomas Harley are compared to the defenseman’s average on the power play.

Here’s the top unit.

Right away, let’s discuss the three most obvious.

• Benn is a massive drag on the top unit, shooting well below league average in every category. There’s no reason for him to be on the top unit (okay, there is, but more on that in a moment).

• Heiskanen: likewise. A case could be made that his high rate of shot attempts is actually a bad thing, since he’s not an elite offensive player.

• Hintz, Robertson, and Johnston are Good, Actually.

Things are not so simple, of course. If you’re wondering why Benn is on the top unit, it’s because he’s Dallas’ best faceoff man. Currently a +9 on power play faceoffs, only Matt Duchene comes close, at +4. I don’t want to get caught up in the faceoff debate, which we’ve already had. But since this is “into the weeds” I’ll say this. Consider these two players:

• Player A, who is good at faceoffs, but deficient in offense.

• Player B, who is bad at faceoffs, but proficient in offense.

Who would you rather have? While this is not a trick question, I think the answer is obvious: on the power play, Player B every day of the week and twice on Domingo. The power play is entirely about offense. Choosing Player A is tantamount to letting someone fight fire in a burning building just because they’re in great physical condition. Sure, physical condition is important, but not as important as having an Emergency Medical Technician certification. If Benn’s offense isn’t certified, then faceoff prowess should be irrelevant. One of the best faceoff players in the league on the PP is Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He’s playing on the Islander’s top unit. Their rank? Dead last. Conversely, Carolina and Winnipeg are bottom 10 teams in PP faceoff win percentage. They are, however, top 10 in PP scoring. Even if you’re a Faceoffs Matter proponent, you have to admit it doesn’t matter for Benn on Dallas’ top unit.

Getting back to the above data, what I find interesting is that Johnston and Robertson are doing quite well in terms of getting shots off, and generating shot quality. However, most fans would likely disagree with that. As for the second unit, here’s something interesting: despite leading the team in PP production, Duchene has been extremely lackluster as a chance generator on his own.

In other words, if Dallas wants to improve the power play, I’d argue they need to start by stacking the top unit. There’s no sense in splitting hairs when you need only a few good strands. And that begins with eliminating the “weakest” players. Again, this is just a preliminary suggestion. Rather than argue over one or the other, I’m suggesting starting from the ground up, for example, a top unit without Benn and Heiskanen. Going solely by the data, that leaves Dallas with the following.

Wyatt Johnston — Roope Hintz — Jason Robertson

Mason Marchment — Thomas Harley

Arguing for Nils Lundkvist over Harley (a fine suggestion), or playing Mavrik Bourque somewhere on this unit (I agree!) is a separate article. The point here is that Dallas needs to start with a workable base. It’s hard to see how that happens with Benn and Heiskanen on the top unit; not unless something in their games drastically changes, or if the coaching staff stumbles onto a combination that can better integrate Benn and Heiskanen; or rather, a combination that they can mesh with. Heiskanen may still have value as a top unit PP blueliner, but it’s clearly not on the current unit as constructed.

A digression: Dallas’ power play heatmaps

The numbers alone do not an argument make. Shot rates are all well and good, but on the power play, it’s also about roles. Special teams live and die by their formations, and rotations. Your typical power play has the following:

• A point man

• A threat on the right dot

• A threat from the left dot

• A primary net-front presence

• A secondary net-front presence

With that in mind, who’s playing what role, here?

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyViz.

This is easily the most damning evidence against Dallas’ power play. Who is the quarterback on this unit? What is Benn’s role, specifically, and why are there two point “threats” on a unit that runs a 1-3-1? Is there a right flank on this power play? Because their controller isn’t just disconnected—somebody cut the chord. The second unit is hardly any better.

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyViz.

The question of roles is crucial. And it’s the single biggest reason why Dallas is struggling to do much of anything. If nobody’s following their assignments, then no mission can be accomplished.

Steal from the Vegas playbook

The old lesson about stealing instead of borrowing, etc. One of the best power play teams in the league is Vegas. Anchored by Jack Eichel (right dot), Tomáš Hertl (secondary net-front), Shea Theodore (point), Mark Stone (primary net front, or bumper), and Pavel Dorofeyev (left dot), they have one of the most adaptable units in the entire league. Jack Han wrote about them extensively early on when it seemed like they had the formula for PP excellence.

The NHL's best powerplay (right now)

I recommend reading it in full. If I hadn’t told you their roles, would you even need me to tell you by looking only at their heat maps?

Data and visual courtesy of HockeyViz.

This is what a power play unit should look like. There’s a clear, and precise presence for each role. Notice how there’s no overlap between roles like there is on Dallas’ two units. There’s also no critical area of the ice that goes unaccounted for. Stone and Hertl cover the front of the net without bumping into each other, Dorofeyev is a one-timer option on the left dot, Eichel generates from the top of the right dots, and Theodore threatens from the point on two levels instead of just one.

I clipped most of Dallas’ chances on the Rempe major, and it’s bizarre how rushed the Stars are when it comes to generating shots. Because they’re willing to shoot without being in formation, they end up chasing their own chances with players out of position. It also affects how the team generates rebounds.

The Stars are 7th in low danger chances on the PP. Going back to Han’s analysis of Vegas, part of net-front effectiveness is not just having someone to stand there and screen the goalie waiting for tips (Pavelski at his best wasn’t static). It’s also rotation between the two. Dallas’ obsession with taking low danger shots for the high danger rebound isn’t working precisely because there’s no rotation down low. It’s one of the odd contradictions in Dallas’ power play. They’re actually getting the rebounds. In fact, they’re one of the better rebound-generating teams.

Data and visual courtesy of MoneyPuck.

But the lack of inside rotation — to borrow Han’s terminology — ala Vegas means the rebound quality is low. There is where I think moving Benn and Heiskanen to the second unit could pay dividends. While Heiskanen does have some offensive strengths, I don’t believe walking the blueline or blasting shots from the point is one of them. In my goofy opinion, it would actually make more sense for Heiskanen to play the left flank/quarterback position since he’s most dangerous wiring wristers at midrange along the right dot. Or at least that’s the case at even strength and has been his entire career.

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Of course, Vegas has a special player in Eichel to play the quarterback role, so that allows them to do a lot more. If the Stars can solve this piece, it’ll go a long way. Again borrowing from Han, Vegas’ ability to move into a spread formation (two players at the point, or a 3-2) before switching back to the classic 1-3-1 allows them to outmaneuver aggressive penalty killing, which is what has hurt the Stars as much as their own lackluster play. Their lack of answers to aggressive penalty killing was a critical piece of their downfall versus Edmonton. That they still don’t have an answer for that is a major deal, and demands answers.

Don’t be clever

Lastly, Lian Bichsel doesn’t need to play the bumper role. Sam Steel and Oskar Bäck don’t need to be on the top unit. Esa Lindell doesn’t need to run the point. This is not a criticism of these players, nor is it to plea to stifle creative, outside-the-box thinking. In fact, as possibilities, these are entirely valid. However, a good power play should be built by good engineering; not reactionary planning. Putting fourth liners on the power play as a solution is the same as being unable to identify the problem. I realize Steel has played great recently, but if were a serious PP consideration, then he should have been from the start rather than while the Stars are on the precipice.

In a lot of ways, this is also unfair to the players. Many have little experience on the man advantage, so asking them to suddenly forge chemistries in formations they don’t recognize is unproductive. There’s also this: figuring out chemistries takes time. A new group needs to be given a window to make a difference; not merely a couple of shifts in which they’re judged only by whether or not the PP scores. The power play should be viewed as a long term issue. Don’t tinker with the PP units as a method of trying to score goals. Sure, that goes without saying, but tinker with them as a method for establishing a well-oiled machine going into the playoffs.

This will probably be the most disagreeable point for certain fans. But players like Robertson, Hintz, and Heiskanen are here to stay. The organization should be behind them (not that they’ve indicated they aren’t), and continue to demand that they lead the way, even when struggling². Robertson and Hintz in particular are top 30 players in points per 60 since 2020 (not counting this season). I don’t believe for a second that they’re replacement level forwards all of a sudden.

None of this is to say that there can’t be a critical change here and there. Bourque, for example, was a phenomenal PP quarterback in the AHL and in juniors. With the PP slumping this card, there’s no reason not to take his playmaking skills out for a spin. Sure, it’s “added responsibility.” But why is it always assumed that prospects want less instead of more, as if we can only assume they’re some degree of unprepared rather than eager? This negative framing is exactly what gets me sports mad re: “the NHL is not a development league.”

At this point, it’s clear that the Stars are in dire need of help. However, it’s critical that they start with an internal solution, less they use Seguin’s LTIR money on a power play specialist they might not necessarily need³. Again, this brings us back to the real problem: Dallas doesn’t need power play help. They need scoring help. But maybe, just maybe, they can find a way to help themselves. No offense to Pavelski. But he wasn’t near as good as this PP is bad. Life finds a way. At least when given the opportunity. This team needs to create those opportunities before it becomes more than just an obstacle.

1. This earned him an eight-game suspension. Which wasn’t near enough.

2. Yes, this undercuts the argument to get Heiskanen off the top unit, but Heiskanen not being on the top unit does not undercut his primary role: as the team’s top three-zone defender.

3. There’s also this. If you believe Dallas’ power play issues stem from coaching, then what good does a power play specialist truly do?