Let's break down a blockbuster: Mikko Rantanen becomes a Dallas Star.

Thoughts? Lots.

It never really made sense. Carolina is a contending team. They weren’t gonna take Logan Stankoven and a grab bag of assets to trade Mikko Rantanen. Not when they simply use him to take a run at the Cup. And for Dallas, if we know the going rate ($13 million), then how does this work for the Stars, who will spend a lot of money in the next two years on big deals for Wyatt Johnston (this summer), Jason Robertson, and Thomas Harley?

It turns out, it was all part of the plan. Rantanen is a Dallas Star for the next eight years, at $12 million AAV¹.

And the return? I have to admit I was on pins and needles. If Carolina still wants to win now, then either Robertson would have to be part of the deal — logic being that Dallas might be willing to pay Rantanen rather than Robertson while getting this season and next to win a Cup with both — or lots of picks and lots of prospects, like Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque. Not only was it the latter, but it was less than the latter — and at the lowest possible price for Rantanen. Logan Stankoven, two first rounders (2026 and 2027), and two third rounders (also from 2026 and 2027).

Graphic from SiriusXM NHL Network Radio.

So that’s it. Dallas takes a massive step forward in turning an already-elite offense into something that will be a Lovecraftian nightmare for opposing defenses for years to come. The cost was turning a dead last prospect pool into whatever is worse than dead last.

We’ll talk about the individuals in a second, but it’s hard not to be excited. Dallas wins the arms race in the West. That much is objectively clear. But what does that mean long term? Is it enough to offset some of their unaddressed weaknesses? What is Dallas losing in Stankoven? That Stankoven was part of this deal feels perfect given the way Rantanen’s career was going in Carolina.

Wait a minute. Is Mikko Rantanen really worth it?

Let’s take a step back, and take a deep breath. Because I feel like most fans know Rantanen as the player he used to be. It’s been an odd season for Rantanen in terms of shift-to-shift value. Yes, he’s insanely productive; currently with 70 points. But the warts started to show in specific areas before he was traded to Carolina.

I know many won’t care about this stuff. “Dude, enough with the spreadsheets.”

My point here isn’t to nitpick. In fact, Rantanen excels on the rush. It’s one of the reasons why his fit with Carolina was mixed — they play a purely cycle/forecheck style of offense. Dallas, conversely, is the best team on the rush. Yes, better, and by a yardstick, than Colorado this year. There’s every reason to believe that Rantanen isn’t just the player he’s been this year, but perhaps even better. Which is in insane thought.

But I just want to consider, for a moment, this deal in its totality. After all, Rantanen is not a rental. And while Stankoven and a grocery list of picks don’t seem like much, 12 million a year, for eight years, is. When I first heard rumors about Rantanen, I had been thinking about Robertson. Maybe even as part of a deal in a three-way trade to add defense. This prompted the question: Is Robertson even as good as Rantanen? Yes. A bit better, even, at least in terms of shift to shift offense.

However, Rantanen is exactly the kind of player who defies some of the fancier metrics. There is, after all, no stat for the flesh: the raw talent level of what a player is capable of doing when they’re at their best. Rantanen is a true gamebreaker. Since 2020, Rantanen is 13th in assists, 8th in points per game, 5th in goals, and 4th in points.

But he’s by no means perfect. And that blip this year could either be exactly that — a blip. Or the start of his decline. If you get at least four quality years, do you even care about a decline? Probably not. But I don’t think Rantanen’s decline should be dismissed as “mere numbers.”

Losing Logan Stankoven

Don’t be surprised if Stankoven blows up in Carolina. He’s been unlucky, sometimes discombobulated, but some of his underlying numbers scream “breakout…eventually.”

It’s definitely tough seeing Stankoven go. I suspect Dallas fans are losing more than they think given the recency bias of his struggles. There’s no doubt that Dallas upgraded in a major way, but Stankoven is nowhere near scratching the surface of what he’s capable of. Jim Nill obviously won this trade. But I don’t think Tulsky fumbled the bag either (just dropped it without breaking anything). Essentially he traded Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and a 2025 second rounder for Stankoven, two firsts, and two thirds. It’s not ideal given where Necas was headed, but solid. Especially since it gives them exactly the kind of asset package to flip into something equally big, like a trade for Elias Pettersson.

The road ahead

This was the deadline move. While I have my own thoughts about the life of the contract, I don’t think it matters. It’s a reverse Mavericks: Dallas going all in for the best player in the deal without giving up much versus giving up the best player in the deal for very little. It’s as simple as that.

However, one thing that deserves emphasis. It’s pretty evident what the path forward is. Dallas will outscore its problems. While everyone thought and hoped Dallas might add a top four defender — which they still need — you can’t be great at everything. And that’s the soul of the deal right there: Better to lean in on one skill that your opponent can’t stop at all than to rely on depth at all positions that can be occasionally contained.

I’ve often wondered whether Jim Nill was the type to push his chips in. This move leaves no doubt that he is.

1. PuckPedia calculates that the difference in taxes between Colorado and Dallas is over 500K a year, meaning Rantanen will make another $4.2M throughout the life of his contract.