Light Work: A small preview of the 2025-2026 season, and a small bone to pick with your rankings
Jason Robertson. Why have they forsaken you?
I have a preview of the Stars at my general NHL coverage place.
It’s weird, writing about the Stars for a different audience. Because it’s meant to be a fast food version of what we’ll have here, hardcore fans and sickos won’t find as much to chew on. That’s not to say my estimations are any less genuine. On the contrary. By focusing on the broad strokes, I get to step away from that perspective as a “Stars writer” and “Stars fan” — which in the end, makes for a more objective take.
It kind of took me by surprise, as pretentious as that sounds. We don’t flirt with our other selves enough. I’m sounding like Searle from Sunshine aren’t I? “I recommend it.”
With a lot of this previewing in mind, Sean Shapiro did his roster rankings, including me on a panel of everyone in the Stars mediasphere, with the following request: rank the Stars roster from 23 to 1, with 1 being the big enchilada. The top dog. Etc. You can see the end result here.
This is a consensus ranking, so I’m not here to argue with Sean. Nor I am here to be sports mad. I’m only here to snip at what I think is a growing perception, including at The Athletic when it comes to Jason Robertson.
Thomas Harley above Jason Robertson? Let’s talk about this one. If you’re new here, you should know that I’ve been steering the Harley hype train since 2023. In 2024. This year. Harley doesn’t just look the part of a special player. He acts like one.
But I have to wonder how much recency bias plays into some people’s perception. It’s no secret that Robertson had a down year. Not only did his regular season performance take a minute to get going, but the postseason was another story entirely. Nonetheless, unlike other players in the postseason, Robertson’s performance has an accounting: injuries.
Over the last two seasons, Robertson has 160 points among all forwards, which is 23rd. Harley has 97, which is 17th among defenders. On the surface, this looks like an argument for Harley. Except Robertson is competing against a larger pool of players, as there were 304 more forwards than defenders who played in the NHL last year. As a result, break them down by cohorts, and Robertson sits in the 97th percentile among forwards while Harley sits among the 95 percentile.
Are we nitpicking? Of course. What would be the point otherwise? But this is not like deciding between which is the better Mexican sweetbread: the marranito or the concha1. I feel like this consensus — again not just in terms of rankings — has a short memory. Robertson has a larger body of work, and that body of work has been impressive by any measure. He’s had two seasons where he’s been worth at least two wins in the standings, with the 2022-2023 season marking a value of more than three wins — the highest of any Stars forward post-Covid.
None of this is to say that the debate is settled because of SPAR. The numbers, as I’ve argued ad nauseum, are always a story onto themselves.
Only that I think both Robertson’s floor and ceiling have been established whereas with Harley, I believe we still yet have to figure out which is which. Again, none of this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Stars fans get to have both on their favorite team. Not only would any roster be lucky to have them, they’re also players who weren’t even conventional picks, which is a testament to Dallas’ amateur scouts.
However, it wouldn’t be fair for me to pick apart the lists of others if I didn’t give others the opportunity to pick apart my own. This was the list I submitted to Sean.
Miro Heiskanen
Mikko Rantanen
Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson
Wyatt Johnston
Roope Hintz
Thomas Harley
Esa Lindell
Matt Duchene
Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn
Lian Bichsel
Mavrik Bourque
Casey DeSmith
Sam Steel
Nils Lundkvist
Ilya Lyubushkin
Radek Faksa
Colin Blackwell
Nathan Bastian
Alexander Petrovic
Oskar Back
Vladislav Kolyachonok
The asterisk is that I didn’t want to insert too much of my own opinions into this list, so I erred on the side of…somewhere between public perception and ‘best.’ A list according to my own personal opinion?
This would be it.
Miro Heiskanen
Wyatt Johnston
Jason Robertson
Thomas Harley
Mikko Rantanen
Roope Hintz
Jake Oettinger
Esa Lindell
Matt Duchene
Lian Bichsel
Jamie Benn
Tyler Seguin
Mavrik Bourque
Casey DeSmith
Sam Steel
Nils Lundkvist
Ilya Lyubushkin
Vladislav Kolyachonok
Colin Blackwell
Radek Faksa
Nathan Bastian
Oskar Back
Alexander Petrovic
Did I “cheat” and rank according to sG, or Bloviations per 60? No. My rank here is somewhere between judging them by their immediate past, analytic present, and broad future, with yes — a few “yea but the numbers here” asterisks to give certain players upticks and others downticks.
Nonetheless: have at it!
Marranitos all day.
I like and agree more with your second "personal" list - especially Otter, who I think is too high at #3 on the submitted list. Sure, sometimes Otter plays like #1 but sometimes he plays like #10 - not consistent enough, lapses of concentration IMHO....I really don't know where Wyatt belongs other than top 7, but if he's on a strong line, he's definitely top 3...
Rantanen drops too low for me on your private list. I get that he needs a full season with the team to be appreciated, but he managed to be dangerous skating with 4th liners in the playoffs. I can't see him not in the top 3.
Robo is tough, part of me thinks that he's a reconfigured Pavelski type who isn't traditionally pretty but you want him. But then the other part can see how he could be left off of team USA for the Olympics. Sure that's a tough comparison, but that's the bar for him.
I'm getting vibes that Lyubushkin is the Mendoza line and everyone after that could just have "player" on the back of their sweater.
Benn at 11 still feels too high. Yes, he brings a lot of history with him, but also, he brings a lot of history with him. Hopefully this can be a swan song year for him, but I feel like he's going to get more and better ice time than he would on any other team and it will bite the club.