Light Work: Breaking down Wyatt Johnston's plus minus, and what's in it beyond a cheap talking point

And is there a better number to look at?

I had a lot written out here in my preamble. You know how I get with cheap stats. But I scrapped it because as obnoxious as I’m willing to be in order to make a point, I don’t want to cross over into becoming a jerk¹. So let’s just talk about what’s baked into Wyatt Johnston’s -17.

Just to be clear at the outset: this is not any kind of apologia for the 22-year old pivot. With eight points through 16 games, it goes without saying. Dallas needs more from him. Youth wasn’t his excuse last postseason when he led the team in points with 16 in 19 games. It can’t be this year — at least not if Dallas wants to win a Cup. He was fourth in scoring throughout the regular season. Right now he’s sixth, tied with Tyler Seguin and below Mikael Granlund.

There are a lot of separate problems going right now, with Dallas down 2-1 in the series. They’ve been outscored 9-3 at even strength. Only their power play has given them strength. With so many different things to discuss, Johnston has become front and center with his -17: a playoff mark so bad, it’s the worst in over 40 years. So what’s in this plus-minus anyway?

Breaking -17 down, piece by piece

29 percent of Johnston’s plus-minus has come from…

Empty net goals against. Five to be exact.

If we can agree anywhere, perhaps it’s here in that a good portion of Johnston’s plus-minus is just noise. Johnston being punished when Dallas gets scored on with an empty net is obviously silly. If there’s an instructive piece here, it’s in Johnston’s faceoff prowess. I don’t know what his numbers are in empty net situations, but so far he’s a +3 on faceoffs throughout the playoffs. That sounds good, but it’s not. Not really. That’s fifth among Dallas forwards, behind (in descending order) Matt Duchene, Sam Steel, Tyler Seguin, and Oskar Bäck.

50 percent of Johnston’s EV plus-minus has come from…

Being on a line with Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov. Six goals against, to be exact.

This is where your mileage on Johnston’s struggles may vary. Obviously, Johnston needs to be better. But how much are Benn and Dadonov actively helping? I don’t think you need stats to help you understand this, but they’re a tirefire as a group. Not only are the getting perforated in terms of possession, but their expected goal share is bad too.

This might be the worst sign of all. How does Johnston improve if Benn and Dadonov don’t?

83 percent of Johnston’s EV plus-minus occurred versus Colorado (six goals against) and Edmonton (four goals against so far)

Here was Johnston’s most common opponents in the Avalanche series, in descending order: Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas and Artturi Lehkonen. Johnston’s first series had a clear objective: play the toughest matchups. Dallas won, but it’s worth remembering how badly they were throttled on the shot sheet: 135-190. Only 34 percent of his faceoffs were in the offensive zone. In other words, a lot of the minus in his plus-minus comes from getting punched in the mouth versus Colorado.

.873. That’s Dallas’ save percentage with the Johnston line on the ice

Compare that to the .972 save percentage Dallas is getting with the Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen trio. That’s the thing about plus-minus. Since it’s so broad, a lot of things affect it. The Hintz line has been on the ice for 26 more shots on net against. Whatever you think this relationship is, I think it’s safe to say that the top line has gotten more breaks than the Johnston line (it’s worth noting here that this time last season, Johnston had Logan Stankoven on his right wing: in case you forgot — and I know readers here didn’t — he turned out to be a pretty darn good player in his own right).

In summary

Taken together, it’s clear that Johnston’s plus-minus problem is a Dallas problem. His most common linemates have only one goal each. Dadonov actually has more points (four) than Benn. When he was tasked with taking on the tough matchups, Dallas got outshot (the same was broadly true versus Winnipeg, when he took on the Mark Scheifele line).

Perhaps it’s just been too much too soon. Johnston is an elite talent. It’s easy to see why Pete DeBoer took a chance. Not only had Johnston showed strong defensive chops, but it freed up Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen to make a meal out of ‘easier’ matchups. Is Johnston ready for play that Barkov-like role? Not yet. But he’s close.

Thankfully, it’s been the Hintz — or was — line that has been paired against Connor McDavid and friends, with Johnston now drawing second line watch versus Leon Draisaitl, Kasperi Kapanen, and Vasily Podkolzin. We’ll see how that unfolds as the series does.

Again, this is less about excuses, and more about context. I’ll never understand why a player card like above with its hundreds of data points gets a thousand skeptics screaming “but it doesn’t provide context!” while something as goofy as plus-minus being referenced in a sport as low-scoring as hockey gets taken as gospel. No, -17 isn’t good. But it’s also not as significant as the number three: as in, Dallas has only three players with a positive goal differential — Hintz, Sam Steel, and Lian Bichsel.

Johnston needs to get going. But he can’t do it alone.

1. Consider the title my compromise I guess.