I'll be the jerk David is unwilling to be: hockey plus/minus is a stupid stat and anyone talking about it as if it's not can safely be ignored. Stars got goalied in game three which I guess makes up for gifts given to them by Skinner in game one.
Personally what I think we should be talking about is how both free agent D signings are eating healthy scratches behind a rookie and an AHL vet -- this is straight up comedy.
About those UFA signings: 7M$ Cap Space vs 1,7M$ for the players that are actually playing.
Brendon Montour = 7,1M$
The next off season will be one of the most interesting of the Jim Nill Era. I think it will be the first time that he will not have the Cap space to solves his problems throught free agency.
This off season will require creativity as we have not much money, no high end draft pick and no young prospects that could be ready for meaningful NHL duties next season.
The problem is the middle 6. That includes Johnston, but not only Johnston. Latching onto the +/- is lazy, low hanging fruit for talking heads that want a soundbite. The truth is, Duchene, Seguin, Marchment, Johnston, Benn, Dadonov and Robertson are failing this team. They need to step up, or they'll fall short of the goal...again.
This is it! It's lazy to focus on Wyatt's +/-. It's also lazy to dismiss that Wyatt, and the middle six, have been very disappointing. +/- is bad metric but xG dont count on the scoreboard. Need to start finishing.
The bigger point of the -17 is that it's ridiculous that the coaching staff let it get to this point. WJ is a key player in the Stars success. If he's getting caved in then the coaches should've adjusted to maximize his abilities long before this.
Ok, I appreciate the detail in your post. Thanks. But, I’m beginning to see the problem more as a coaching issue… with our best offensive players assigned to cover the 2 best offensive players in the league… instead of using the traditional “checking lines” strategy… why are we shocked when these players offensive numbers decline?
I think what we’re seeing is that trying 4 scoring lines “depth”, doesn’t in the playoffs, score that is.
Game 4 Otter has to play lights out and somebody on the Stars has to put the puck in the net and that still might not be enough. If the Stars can’t get a early lead it’s going to be a long night. The refs cost the Stars game 3 with the no call and I don’t expect the refs to get better in the Oilers barn
Tbf otter has played beyond lights out for two series now . I get what you're saying but I think it's finally time for others to go to that "beyond" mode or the stars aren't going to go past this round. I think otter has been "back down" to his "solid enough" self and so now we're finally seeing the cracks we were seeing since 4 nations sadly
Five empty net goals against, two shorthanded goals against (at least one being entirely Harley's fault), one 4-on-4 goal against... I honestly can't believe this is a talking point in 2025.
There's not much mystery here, he's played about 40% of his time on a line that's been outshot about 3:2, and the goals against reflect that. The rest of his time he's played no more than about 15 minutes with any single line, and his combined on-ice shooting percentage for all other lines is 0%. I'm surprised to see so many otherwise good analysts jumping on this.
His empty net faceoffs are 3-3, btw. The rest of Dallas is 2-3.
Heh. I pay for most of these, unfortunately. In fact, I have an entire spreadsheet of resources since it's easy to lose track if I'm not careful.
The only public models that are free are NaturalStatTrick and MoneyPuck. Both are VERY good. Just saying. The others tend to have useful visuals, however, which is what I think makes it easier for the reader, and thus, worth the investment.
I promise when the new Substack goes up, I WILL break down the Bolts. I love watching them, and they're in a unique spot where I can't tell if they have one more kick at the can, or none at all.
Playing with Benn and Dadonov is not helping for sure. Mostly Benn who plays like a real 4th liner in these PO. That makes you wonder the risk to offer him a better contract that we currently have with Dadonov.
Just put Benn on the 4th line in place of Back, and bring Bourque to play with Johnston and Dadonov.
I am scratching my head so hard when I see Back in the lineup while Bourque is watching from the press box.
Unfortunately Jaimie Benn has hit a wall and looks like Dadanov is there also . We just can have Jaimie back next season on an inflated contract . Also Marchment is a boat anchor on the Duchene line his lack of puck skills really shows up in the play offs . Trade him for draft picks or similar cost player with more skills
I'll be the jerk David is unwilling to be: hockey plus/minus is a stupid stat and anyone talking about it as if it's not can safely be ignored. Stars got goalied in game three which I guess makes up for gifts given to them by Skinner in game one.
Personally what I think we should be talking about is how both free agent D signings are eating healthy scratches behind a rookie and an AHL vet -- this is straight up comedy.
Shelly you're my new Substack admin.
excellent, I'll send you my consultancy rate.
About those UFA signings: 7M$ Cap Space vs 1,7M$ for the players that are actually playing.
Brendon Montour = 7,1M$
The next off season will be one of the most interesting of the Jim Nill Era. I think it will be the first time that he will not have the Cap space to solves his problems throught free agency.
This off season will require creativity as we have not much money, no high end draft pick and no young prospects that could be ready for meaningful NHL duties next season.
The problem is the middle 6. That includes Johnston, but not only Johnston. Latching onto the +/- is lazy, low hanging fruit for talking heads that want a soundbite. The truth is, Duchene, Seguin, Marchment, Johnston, Benn, Dadonov and Robertson are failing this team. They need to step up, or they'll fall short of the goal...again.
This is it! It's lazy to focus on Wyatt's +/-. It's also lazy to dismiss that Wyatt, and the middle six, have been very disappointing. +/- is bad metric but xG dont count on the scoreboard. Need to start finishing.
Could it not be more of a reflection of where Benn is in his career rather than Wyatt ?
The bigger point of the -17 is that it's ridiculous that the coaching staff let it get to this point. WJ is a key player in the Stars success. If he's getting caved in then the coaches should've adjusted to maximize his abilities long before this.
Ok, I appreciate the detail in your post. Thanks. But, I’m beginning to see the problem more as a coaching issue… with our best offensive players assigned to cover the 2 best offensive players in the league… instead of using the traditional “checking lines” strategy… why are we shocked when these players offensive numbers decline?
I think what we’re seeing is that trying 4 scoring lines “depth”, doesn’t in the playoffs, score that is.
Unless they get 5 tonight :)))
Game 4 Otter has to play lights out and somebody on the Stars has to put the puck in the net and that still might not be enough. If the Stars can’t get a early lead it’s going to be a long night. The refs cost the Stars game 3 with the no call and I don’t expect the refs to get better in the Oilers barn
Tbf otter has played beyond lights out for two series now . I get what you're saying but I think it's finally time for others to go to that "beyond" mode or the stars aren't going to go past this round. I think otter has been "back down" to his "solid enough" self and so now we're finally seeing the cracks we were seeing since 4 nations sadly
Five empty net goals against, two shorthanded goals against (at least one being entirely Harley's fault), one 4-on-4 goal against... I honestly can't believe this is a talking point in 2025.
There's not much mystery here, he's played about 40% of his time on a line that's been outshot about 3:2, and the goals against reflect that. The rest of his time he's played no more than about 15 minutes with any single line, and his combined on-ice shooting percentage for all other lines is 0%. I'm surprised to see so many otherwise good analysts jumping on this.
His empty net faceoffs are 3-3, btw. The rest of Dallas is 2-3.
Amazing. How do you get these stats?
Heh. I pay for most of these, unfortunately. In fact, I have an entire spreadsheet of resources since it's easy to lose track if I'm not careful.
The only public models that are free are NaturalStatTrick and MoneyPuck. Both are VERY good. Just saying. The others tend to have useful visuals, however, which is what I think makes it easier for the reader, and thus, worth the investment.
I promise when the new Substack goes up, I WILL break down the Bolts. I love watching them, and they're in a unique spot where I can't tell if they have one more kick at the can, or none at all.
Playing with Benn and Dadonov is not helping for sure. Mostly Benn who plays like a real 4th liner in these PO. That makes you wonder the risk to offer him a better contract that we currently have with Dadonov.
Just put Benn on the 4th line in place of Back, and bring Bourque to play with Johnston and Dadonov.
I am scratching my head so hard when I see Back in the lineup while Bourque is watching from the press box.
Unfortunately Jaimie Benn has hit a wall and looks like Dadanov is there also . We just can have Jaimie back next season on an inflated contract . Also Marchment is a boat anchor on the Duchene line his lack of puck skills really shows up in the play offs . Trade him for draft picks or similar cost player with more skills