Light Work: If Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson return soon, what should the lines be?

Let's ask the spreadsheets!

It’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for. No, not Game 1. Although, yes, absolutely that. But Dallas’ health. While it’s only been days since Dallas last played a playoff game, it feels like it’s been ages since they played with what you might call a full deck. There’s no timetable for Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson’s return other than “in the second round at some point.” While this isn’t particularly specific, we can still entertain the notion of how the lines could break down whenever they do.

It’s been an odd year in terms of chemistry. Outside of the Matt Duchene line with Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin — which missed a lot of time due to injury — nothing has ever truly stuck. A lot of ill-timed absences didn’t help beyond Seguin’s, but neither did the players in creating the necessary chemistry.

However, the cavalry is on its way, which means I’d like to have fun with stats. Who doesn’t love playing tetris with a hockey roster pretending we know better than hockey coaches? Although to be fair, I think a lot of people enjoy making their own lines because we’re fans, and it’s just one more superfluous thing to talk about.

For this quick exercise, I’ll be using Louis Boulet’s SPAR model, which refers to Standing Points Above Replacement. It’s basically WAR/GAR, just manifested in how many points in the standings a player adds to the lineup. Obviously, there’s a lot more than goes into it, including Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, but we’ll skip the tutorial for now (and I’ll be sure to write an explainer card for them). If you want to learn more about the model itself, click here. If you want to a follow a good dude like Boulet¹, click here.

Programming note: big thanks to the new paid subscribers. I promise I won’t let you down if the Stars don’t. You have access to this calendar listing all the paywalled articles separated by year (bottom of the sheet), section (video, analytics, or prospects, etc), and a link to the article in question. As I try to ensure that paywalled pieces tend to be evergreen in nature, this isn’t the 80s and my writing isn’t flannel. It won’t go out of style. At least I hope not. Flannel’s not coming back is it?

Current Lineup (Unhealthy)

Again, even if you don’t believe in these numbers or stats, you can still humor me here. According to Boulet’s model, the lineup that just beat Colorado in seven games profiled like a wildcard team. (Alex Petrovic didn’t log enough games to acquire data on, so I stuck Matt Dumba in his place.)

Given the shot differential, I would say that’s a decent estimation. Again, it is only that: an estimation. Obviously, a wildcard team doesn’t just go out and beat a Cup contender, which is what makes (IMO) Pete DeBoer such a monumental factor. However, this leaves out the other critical factors, like the special teams matchup, and systems/tactics — or just the God Mode that Mikko Rantanen activated. Whatever your hangups, I think most would agree that this Dallas team is special when healthy, but losing two key players will put a dent in any roster’s maximum efficiency.

Badge breakdown: Boulet’s model gives weight to Corey’s data and thus assigns value to styles hence the badges on the bottom left. Full glossary is here. Part of what I love about Boulet’s work is that decoding these models can be hard for layfans. Finding ways to condense them and make them intuitive with clearer language is huge, and it’s why you’ll be seeing more of Boulet’s work here moving forward.

Dallas has two badges that the roster is given credit for and they are configured as such (these definitions have been 99 percent copy and pasted from Boulet’s glossary):

• Got That DAWG In ‘Em (Gold): Very cool little profile, which tries to define ‘clutch’ as offense in late trailing situations, playoff performance, and defense in late leading situations.

• Bang For Your Buck (Gold): GM fingerprints. They refer to value added (points in the standings) in proportion to cap.

• Efficient Attacker (Silver): Players who consistently generate offence and produce at a high rate.

• Coach’s Dream (Silver): Those who embody the style of a coach’s favourite through responsible consistent play and checking effort.²

• Shutdown Stalwart (Silver): The most competent defensive players against the cycle within their own zone, while defending the rush, and on the penalty kill.

• PK Specialist (Silver): Best penalty killers in the league / By suppressing chances on the man disadvantage, clearing pucks, and preventing the opposition from getting set up in the zone.

So while the roster they used to defeat Colorado is only statistically a wildcard team, they’re still very unique. With all that out the way, what should we expect from their statistical profile when healthy?

Projected lineup (when healthy)

Here I’ll be taking cues from Robert Tiffin’s observations on the ice at practice. These were the lines practicing on the ice, so while neither gospel nor fact, it’s a useful starting point. So what do we got when Heiskanen and Robertson return?

I’m fascinated by that Johnston line. It makes a lot of sense if Johnston is once again getting the tough matchups. Adding Robertson, who has a track record of being good defensively, would theoretically be a massive boost to making DeBoer’s matchups more effective. Still, sticking Marchment on his offside (though he has experience playing his offwing) is something of an unknown.

It’s also hard to say how a Benn-Seguin reunion could look. They were pretty quiet versus Colorado, as was Duchene. Could that further suppress their impact or ignite them? It’s definitely worth a shot, especially if it means giving the Johnston line a stronger look in more minutes.

Defensively, I think it goes without saying: Alex Petrovic will be the odd man out. Lyubushkin was played moderately well, and was quite good on the penalty kill, so while I know some fans have warmed up to Petrovic, he doesn’t have seniority, or the cap hit. And no, whether deserved or not, Cody Ceci will not be pushed down to the third pair. Whatever my own personal opinions, DeBoer deliberately gave Ceci and Esa Lindell the Nathan MacKinnon matchup. He obviously trusts them. The only way that trust is breached is if the Stars end up on the precipice at some point.

Regardless, we’re talking about a 12-point difference in value from the perspective of standings. As you’ll notice on the bottom, they also get new gold badges for “efficient attacker” and “elusive carrier.” Here’s the new badge breakdown.

• Efficient Attacker (Gold): Players who consistently generate offence and produce at a high rate.

• Elusive Carrier (Gold): Shifty skaters who carry a bulk of zone entries and use their skating prowess to draw penalties.

• Coach’s Dream (Silver): Those who embody the style of a coach’s favourite through responsible consistent play and checking effort.

• Scoring Threat (Silver): The league’s top scoring options that leverage their ability to get open for strong chances, create opportunities for themselves with the puck, and pure finishing prowess.

My question is this: is it possible that the spreadsheets hold something even better in store?

What the spreadsheets recommend (when healthy)

I mean, it’s inconsequential but I still find it amusing. Stacking the second line gives Dallas a slightly better profile.

(Also, I really think Blackwell deserves a spot in the lineup. Like Dadonov, he’s one of the few players who can play up the lineup should another injury hit, and he’s a strong penalty killer.) It also gives Dallas an added badge for Wrister Master, which refers to a higher incidence of wrist shots. I find that as amusing as Lian Bichsel and Ilya Lyubushkin getting the highest chemistry boost (I’m assuming this primarily comes from their physicality) on a team filled with superstars.

Granted, that’s the great thing about Dallas’ lineup when healthy: it’s kind of hard to go wrong.

Bonus: another preview of Winnipeg vs. Dallas worth reading

For the sickos out there who weren’t satisfied by my preview, here’s another one from a vastly superior puck-knower.

2025 NHL Round Two Preview: Winnipeg Jets face the Dallas Stars

Garret’s been around for awhile (remember when SB Nation had blogs for every hockey team?), and I’ve always had tremendous respect for his work. Yes, it’s data-driven, but he happens to have a better command of the data than most. For you BlueSky nerds, he’s also a good follow.

1. He’s a Senators fan but we won’t hold that against him. Besides, I like the Senators too.

2. Checking is a tangible dataset in Boulet’s model that includes hot volume, dump-in recovery, forechecking pressure, takeaways, and more.