Pretty cool to see the "recommended" lines. What would this team look like with 2 dominant lines that are clicking? That would be a tough match up. Maybe DeBoer would get there if he has to go to the line blender to get some offense. I enjoy reading this kind of stuff. Keep it coming!
He sorta found that by just double shifting Rantanen with random lines in the third. Probably can't rely on that in perpetuity, but at least we know that's an effective option every now and then.
Louis's chemistry stuff is really cool. I'm not sure it's fully capturing how chemistry really works or the full impact chemistry (or lack of it) actually has on a pairing/line, but I don't think anyone else has attempted anything like it before.
Funnily enough, I was looking at this exact same thing. Totally throwing everything in a blender and getting the "best" lines/pairings gets this somewhat implausible lineup worth 106 points:
Robertson-Duchene-Rantanen
Benn-Hintz-Seguin (!)
Granlund-Johnston-Marchment
Dadonov-Back-Blackwell
Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Smith (?!)
Bichsel-Lyubushkin
Putting Steel and Ceci in for Blackwell and Smith barely changes the projection at all though. This is such a deep forward group, it's almost impossible to put together a lineup worth less than 100 points without intentionally sabotaging it.
Bichsel and Lyubushkin's chemistry seems like a result of Bichsel being above average to great at exits, transition defense, suppression, checking, and shooting and Lyubushkin doing none of those well, but being decent at transition attacking and passing while Bichsel grades out really poorly at both, so they complement each other, I guess. Lindell has negative chemistry because Ceci doesn't do a single thing better than him (and is quite bad at everything).
while I don't think we'll see that second line on your 105 chart, it certainly was a big boost to have Robo on there with Wyatt and Duchene. The more I think about it, the more I like it....keep the Finnish line together, very dangerous second line, and the band is back together again on the third line along with Marchment....fourth line is fast and dangerous, the rat terrier line...
Bourque isn’t physical enough for the playoffs in my opinion. Also since Back and Blackwell have been getting the starts it makes me think PDB doesn’t trust him much like Lundquist last year
I'm obviously more an observational critic than an analytical one, so this is what I've noticed about certain players this year. Blackwell does his best work after sitting for a game or two. For whatever reason, that first game back he's a missile and drags his linemates along with him. However, after being in the lineup consistently for a few games his drop off is dramatic. More and more he gets a little slower on the forecheck and just a few strides behind where he needs to be to make an impact until you just don't notice that he's even playing. Bourque and Steel have similar issues. Bourque's is more pronounced because he doesn't have that physicality to rely on to get him into the game. Steel's isn't nearly as dramatic. His skill and execution of plays that require dexterity is pretty consistent, but he relies more and more heavily on his linemates' actions for his to be noticeable unless he's coming off the bench. Then he's just running around making a menace of himself for the opponent.
Wyatt has already lost a good portion of his hunt from last season, or even preseason when he was leading the black aces line. You just don't see him stay on the puck carrier and jack him from behind like we were used to seeing. He'll continue to excel offensively I'm sure, because he's just too good not to, but that aspect of his game seems to be largely gone. For comparison, and for those that may remember, this same thing actually ended the effectiveness of three former Stars players and led to them finding opportunities elsewhere. For one season though, the line of Eakin, Garbutt and Rousell were faster, hungrier and more relentless than anyone they played. They lived off puck-jacking from behind and turning that into goals. The very next season they couldn't catch a cold.
Ironically, at least during the regular season, the Stars could never learn that there's likely someone right behind them as they lollygagged their way through the neutral zone trying to decide to pass or dump. Queue Robideaux from Grown Ups during the basketball rematch scene.
For lines, after much digression and again observationally and sans political or optical influence, it is a necessity to break up the Dutch line in the short term. None of them had anything going. I'd actually advocate for a 4th line of Back flanked by Benn and Mush. They've desperately tried to make Benn a flashy skilled forward over time, but he's just not. Razor likes the Dainty Barbarian moniker, but when he tries dainty over barbarian it's more often than not just a turnover at the offensive blue line. That will always be a symptom of putting him on a line with skilled players whose play he tries to emulate. Now, in the past when he's been put on a line with Faksa, his barbarian comes out. It is clearly still there, just look at what he did to McNabb last year. He just needs to be reminded that's what made his career. Look at early highlights, "oh, you have the puck at our point? Well, now you're on your ass and I have the puck. Feeling cute, might score a goal real quick." For that combo to work it requires Back. He's the puck glue that allows Benn and Mush to mosey their way into the forecheck cycle.
Petro in over Lyubushkin. Watch his demeanor when he's making plays, it immediately feels like an A-Leaguer sandbagging in the D-League at Farmers Branch. He's not panicked or rushed, he's smart because he realizes what his limitations are now in terms of agility, but he can still push people around and make good, simple passes out of the zone. He very much feels like the Willie Mitchell rental we had a few years back. I'm certain we'll at least see Dumba in game 1 or 2 to at least get him a game when the stakes aren't quite as high. Maybe he'll show them something. He was actually better than the other newbies in the second half of the season.
All of this is to say:
Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen
Robertson-Duchene-Steel
Seguin-Johnston-Dadonov
Benn-Back-Marchment
Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Ceci
Bischel-Petro
Sprinkle in Blackwell and Bourque for that off the bench jump when needed.
Everything you can criticize Blackwell/Bourque for goes triple for Back, who does absolutely zero with his size, and often gets muscled off the puck. Blackwell and Bourque giving you random offensive bursts and then nothing else is better than someone who will never give you offense at all. I'd give Back credit here if Blackwell/Bourque were one-note, but they aren't.
I appreciate your Petrovic observations. I sort of agree and I don't agree. His game is more lowkey in positive ways than he's given credit for. But it's also lowkey bad in other ways. His reads are pretty poor, and his puck handling deteriorates under pressure (in keeping with his play in the AHL, frankly). Is this a guy they should have put into the lineup instead of spending on Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Ceci? Hell yea. But like the rest of those players, their talents get exposed the longer they're out there. Also, I feel like you're not giving Lyubushkin enough credit here.
I think the thing to consider with Back is, 1) he's a rookie; and 2) he's in the lineup to be a Faksa-lite as my buddy Jon likes to say. That's Faksa as he was with Dallas and is with St. Louis, not as he was drafted to be. I mean, he was a 13 overall pick that they Dallas basically forced to play roles that were decidedly not offensive, as Dallas typically does because they draft/sign/trade for the same type of player year in and year out leaving a pool of duplicative skill sets. That makes it hard for rookies to fulfill the roles they were drafted for, which is why you see them in grinder spots. They've done it with Todd Harvey, Jamie Langenbrunner, Steve Ott, Faksa, Nichushkin, Stankoven and Bourque. Sometimes those players find a niche that's in between, but I definitely think Dallas hurts players like this by playing them down the lineup in a role they're not built for.
I disagree on Back, I don't notice him being overly pushed off pucks. In fact, oddly enough because physics says this is difficult, I think he's abnormally strong with his stick at arms length. That's tough. I think he's the reason that line gets as much zone time as it does. You could definitely see the futility of that line when Bourque had to step in, but that could have also been because it was a horrible game to begin with. Back is big, but not muscular and as rookie I think that will change.
I was actually optimistic about the Lyubushkin signing after seeing him play such a heavy game when he was with, Anaheim? However, after a season of watching him chase his tail at least once per game while trying to find the puck in his feet and generally not being the physical presence they said he would be, to say I'm not impressed is a slight understatement.
The D is weird. I think ideally I'd like to see Bishel with Lindell, but if that leaves you with Harley and Miro and a pair of others that's a problem. A third pair of others is bad. Both Miro and Harley can carry a bad partner. I mean, Miro did it with Suter for a long time. I think the issue would be, are their partners gonna get sucked into playing a Miro/Harley type game that they're not capable of or be mature enough to play to their own strengths. It's probably hard not to get caught up in the flow of what those players do and realize you're trying to do it too when you shouldn't. It kinda further highlights Miro's maturity. He can let Harley galavant at will and know he has be the responsible one in those moments.
Ultimately, I think the pressure/panic mechanic you mention in regard to Petro is actually endemic to Dallas' entire D-Corps. It's why they get stuck in their zone so. damn. much. Miro has the skill to recover when he makes a bad play, Harley - to a lesser degree, though his hubris tends to make things worse sometimes, not to mention his tendency to make passes up the middle from behind the net when he's in that "I can do anything" mindset. Everyone else loves to eat it, or reverse it. The reverse is bad for this team because despite how often they do it, the D partner never seems to expect it and it more often is just a turnover. Eating it is the better option, but only Bischel seems to be able to consistently win that contest and move forward. He's just so damn big and strong. I'm an advocate for the high flip as opposed to the rim, also. I've said it before, but if you're gonna rim, you have to do it hard enough that it hurts to stop it. Dallas doesn't. In fact most of their passes are weak sauce. To a man the team needs to take a Modano passing workshop. Hard passes get there quicker and are harder to pick off. For these guys I think I'd like to see this process: 1) take 1 second to look for the pass out; 2) take the 2nd second to make that pass if it's there or just high flip it out, but HIGH because sometime even their high flips are like hanging a fastball on a power hitter, it just ends up right back in their face.
Enjoyed the Five Hohl writeup.
Thank you!
Pretty cool to see the "recommended" lines. What would this team look like with 2 dominant lines that are clicking? That would be a tough match up. Maybe DeBoer would get there if he has to go to the line blender to get some offense. I enjoy reading this kind of stuff. Keep it coming!
He sorta found that by just double shifting Rantanen with random lines in the third. Probably can't rely on that in perpetuity, but at least we know that's an effective option every now and then.
He did that in the regular season when Marchment was out. He moved Benn and Johnston with Duchene. That line performed very well.
Louis's chemistry stuff is really cool. I'm not sure it's fully capturing how chemistry really works or the full impact chemistry (or lack of it) actually has on a pairing/line, but I don't think anyone else has attempted anything like it before.
Funnily enough, I was looking at this exact same thing. Totally throwing everything in a blender and getting the "best" lines/pairings gets this somewhat implausible lineup worth 106 points:
Robertson-Duchene-Rantanen
Benn-Hintz-Seguin (!)
Granlund-Johnston-Marchment
Dadonov-Back-Blackwell
Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Smith (?!)
Bichsel-Lyubushkin
Putting Steel and Ceci in for Blackwell and Smith barely changes the projection at all though. This is such a deep forward group, it's almost impossible to put together a lineup worth less than 100 points without intentionally sabotaging it.
Bichsel and Lyubushkin's chemistry seems like a result of Bichsel being above average to great at exits, transition defense, suppression, checking, and shooting and Lyubushkin doing none of those well, but being decent at transition attacking and passing while Bichsel grades out really poorly at both, so they complement each other, I guess. Lindell has negative chemistry because Ceci doesn't do a single thing better than him (and is quite bad at everything).
while I don't think we'll see that second line on your 105 chart, it certainly was a big boost to have Robo on there with Wyatt and Duchene. The more I think about it, the more I like it....keep the Finnish line together, very dangerous second line, and the band is back together again on the third line along with Marchment....fourth line is fast and dangerous, the rat terrier line...
On that 104 lineup, how about this for line 3 and 4:
Robertson-Jonhston-Bourque
Marchment-Steel-Dadonov
I think that Bourque would elevate the creativity level of that line, and that Marchment is a clear upgrade on Back on the offensive sides of thing.
Totally forgot about Bourque. But yes!
Bourque isn’t physical enough for the playoffs in my opinion. Also since Back and Blackwell have been getting the starts it makes me think PDB doesn’t trust him much like Lundquist last year
TLDR incoming, skip to the end for lines.
I'm obviously more an observational critic than an analytical one, so this is what I've noticed about certain players this year. Blackwell does his best work after sitting for a game or two. For whatever reason, that first game back he's a missile and drags his linemates along with him. However, after being in the lineup consistently for a few games his drop off is dramatic. More and more he gets a little slower on the forecheck and just a few strides behind where he needs to be to make an impact until you just don't notice that he's even playing. Bourque and Steel have similar issues. Bourque's is more pronounced because he doesn't have that physicality to rely on to get him into the game. Steel's isn't nearly as dramatic. His skill and execution of plays that require dexterity is pretty consistent, but he relies more and more heavily on his linemates' actions for his to be noticeable unless he's coming off the bench. Then he's just running around making a menace of himself for the opponent.
Wyatt has already lost a good portion of his hunt from last season, or even preseason when he was leading the black aces line. You just don't see him stay on the puck carrier and jack him from behind like we were used to seeing. He'll continue to excel offensively I'm sure, because he's just too good not to, but that aspect of his game seems to be largely gone. For comparison, and for those that may remember, this same thing actually ended the effectiveness of three former Stars players and led to them finding opportunities elsewhere. For one season though, the line of Eakin, Garbutt and Rousell were faster, hungrier and more relentless than anyone they played. They lived off puck-jacking from behind and turning that into goals. The very next season they couldn't catch a cold.
Ironically, at least during the regular season, the Stars could never learn that there's likely someone right behind them as they lollygagged their way through the neutral zone trying to decide to pass or dump. Queue Robideaux from Grown Ups during the basketball rematch scene.
For lines, after much digression and again observationally and sans political or optical influence, it is a necessity to break up the Dutch line in the short term. None of them had anything going. I'd actually advocate for a 4th line of Back flanked by Benn and Mush. They've desperately tried to make Benn a flashy skilled forward over time, but he's just not. Razor likes the Dainty Barbarian moniker, but when he tries dainty over barbarian it's more often than not just a turnover at the offensive blue line. That will always be a symptom of putting him on a line with skilled players whose play he tries to emulate. Now, in the past when he's been put on a line with Faksa, his barbarian comes out. It is clearly still there, just look at what he did to McNabb last year. He just needs to be reminded that's what made his career. Look at early highlights, "oh, you have the puck at our point? Well, now you're on your ass and I have the puck. Feeling cute, might score a goal real quick." For that combo to work it requires Back. He's the puck glue that allows Benn and Mush to mosey their way into the forecheck cycle.
Petro in over Lyubushkin. Watch his demeanor when he's making plays, it immediately feels like an A-Leaguer sandbagging in the D-League at Farmers Branch. He's not panicked or rushed, he's smart because he realizes what his limitations are now in terms of agility, but he can still push people around and make good, simple passes out of the zone. He very much feels like the Willie Mitchell rental we had a few years back. I'm certain we'll at least see Dumba in game 1 or 2 to at least get him a game when the stakes aren't quite as high. Maybe he'll show them something. He was actually better than the other newbies in the second half of the season.
All of this is to say:
Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen
Robertson-Duchene-Steel
Seguin-Johnston-Dadonov
Benn-Back-Marchment
Harley-Heiskanen
Lindell-Ceci
Bischel-Petro
Sprinkle in Blackwell and Bourque for that off the bench jump when needed.
Everything you can criticize Blackwell/Bourque for goes triple for Back, who does absolutely zero with his size, and often gets muscled off the puck. Blackwell and Bourque giving you random offensive bursts and then nothing else is better than someone who will never give you offense at all. I'd give Back credit here if Blackwell/Bourque were one-note, but they aren't.
I appreciate your Petrovic observations. I sort of agree and I don't agree. His game is more lowkey in positive ways than he's given credit for. But it's also lowkey bad in other ways. His reads are pretty poor, and his puck handling deteriorates under pressure (in keeping with his play in the AHL, frankly). Is this a guy they should have put into the lineup instead of spending on Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Ceci? Hell yea. But like the rest of those players, their talents get exposed the longer they're out there. Also, I feel like you're not giving Lyubushkin enough credit here.
I think the thing to consider with Back is, 1) he's a rookie; and 2) he's in the lineup to be a Faksa-lite as my buddy Jon likes to say. That's Faksa as he was with Dallas and is with St. Louis, not as he was drafted to be. I mean, he was a 13 overall pick that they Dallas basically forced to play roles that were decidedly not offensive, as Dallas typically does because they draft/sign/trade for the same type of player year in and year out leaving a pool of duplicative skill sets. That makes it hard for rookies to fulfill the roles they were drafted for, which is why you see them in grinder spots. They've done it with Todd Harvey, Jamie Langenbrunner, Steve Ott, Faksa, Nichushkin, Stankoven and Bourque. Sometimes those players find a niche that's in between, but I definitely think Dallas hurts players like this by playing them down the lineup in a role they're not built for.
I disagree on Back, I don't notice him being overly pushed off pucks. In fact, oddly enough because physics says this is difficult, I think he's abnormally strong with his stick at arms length. That's tough. I think he's the reason that line gets as much zone time as it does. You could definitely see the futility of that line when Bourque had to step in, but that could have also been because it was a horrible game to begin with. Back is big, but not muscular and as rookie I think that will change.
I was actually optimistic about the Lyubushkin signing after seeing him play such a heavy game when he was with, Anaheim? However, after a season of watching him chase his tail at least once per game while trying to find the puck in his feet and generally not being the physical presence they said he would be, to say I'm not impressed is a slight understatement.
The D is weird. I think ideally I'd like to see Bishel with Lindell, but if that leaves you with Harley and Miro and a pair of others that's a problem. A third pair of others is bad. Both Miro and Harley can carry a bad partner. I mean, Miro did it with Suter for a long time. I think the issue would be, are their partners gonna get sucked into playing a Miro/Harley type game that they're not capable of or be mature enough to play to their own strengths. It's probably hard not to get caught up in the flow of what those players do and realize you're trying to do it too when you shouldn't. It kinda further highlights Miro's maturity. He can let Harley galavant at will and know he has be the responsible one in those moments.
Ultimately, I think the pressure/panic mechanic you mention in regard to Petro is actually endemic to Dallas' entire D-Corps. It's why they get stuck in their zone so. damn. much. Miro has the skill to recover when he makes a bad play, Harley - to a lesser degree, though his hubris tends to make things worse sometimes, not to mention his tendency to make passes up the middle from behind the net when he's in that "I can do anything" mindset. Everyone else loves to eat it, or reverse it. The reverse is bad for this team because despite how often they do it, the D partner never seems to expect it and it more often is just a turnover. Eating it is the better option, but only Bischel seems to be able to consistently win that contest and move forward. He's just so damn big and strong. I'm an advocate for the high flip as opposed to the rim, also. I've said it before, but if you're gonna rim, you have to do it hard enough that it hurts to stop it. Dallas doesn't. In fact most of their passes are weak sauce. To a man the team needs to take a Modano passing workshop. Hard passes get there quicker and are harder to pick off. For these guys I think I'd like to see this process: 1) take 1 second to look for the pass out; 2) take the 2nd second to make that pass if it's there or just high flip it out, but HIGH because sometime even their high flips are like hanging a fastball on a power hitter, it just ends up right back in their face.