Light Work: Matt Dumba, what it means to pay the iron price, and why there's more than meets the eye to this Pittsburgh trade
Let's call this what it is. And talk about what it could be.
When Matt Dumba was signed by Dallas, you’d be hard pressed to find a single fan of the deal. When Dumba’s watch with Dallas had ended, you’d be hard pressed to find a single silver lining to that deal. $3.7 million was a lot. But it was a lot more to have simply sitting in the pressbox. And so yesterday Jim Nill finally cut bait, paying the iron price as a result.
Dallas acquired Vladislav Kolyachonok from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Dumba and a 2028 second-round pick. My first reaction was “wow that’s a lot.” My calm, cool, and collected reaction was “wow that sucks.” Today’s reaction is “that sucks but…”
Before digging into the “but” portion, I want to clarify my reaction on social media. I get that there is a positive element to all of this. With Dumba’s full contract off the books, Dallas is now cap compliant. Specifically, the Stars now have $1,980,084 to work with. That’s obviously a good thing. So why am I complaining? It’s not a complaint. It’s simply a criticism. Giving up a second round pick — which Dallas has used to draft players like Jason Robertson and Logan Stankoven, or in some cases used to leverage in trade for players like Chris Tanev — is more value lost to a signing that was value lost in the first place.
So that’s my issue. There's a difference between a mistake (oops I broke the cookie jar) and a choice (I took $3.7M out of the cookie jar and gave it to a replacement-level defender). It's good that Dumba is off the books but there's no way to frame this move as anything other than payment for a bad decision. Dallas took out a loan on a depreciated asset, and now the loan is due. Nothing more.
However, I’m not here to linger over the Dumba decision. Nor do I think of this as some indictment on Nill. Any judgment of Nill’s decision-making should be taken in its totality: his draft record, the team’s success, value added in free agency or via trade, etc. One bad decision is hardly the end of the world. However, again, that’s just the proper framing: a bad decision (signing Matt Dumba to begin with), and a wage to accompany it (paying a second round pick to resolve said decision).
The reason I’m still writing when a note or a chat post would have sufficed is because I don’t think the second-round pick was simply about having Kyle Dubas help out Dallas’ cap situation (even though, for sure, that was the bulk of it). My personal suspicion is that the Stars didn’t see Kolyachonok as a throw-in.
Kolyachonok might look like a throw-in now, but that wasn’t the case in 2019 at the draft. I was personally familiar with him at the time because he was Ty Dellandrea’s teammate, back when Dellandrea looked like a prospect with modest potential. Scott Wheeler had him at 42nd overall, above names like Spencer Knight, Connor McMichael, and Jordan Spence.
Kolyachonok doesn’t really lack any of the skills needed to be good in today’s NHL and I got the sense watching him play throughout the year that this was just the beginning for him because there are so many flashes of ‘OK, where did that come from?’ to his game. Surround him with a little more talent and watch out. He can really skate (in all four directions), he’s fluid with the puck, and he makes the plays you’d hope he makes with it.
Corey Pronman had Kolyachonok just outside the second round at 64th overall.
Kolyachonok started off his season in London, which then offloaded him to Flint due to having too many imports. He was a huge part of that team the rest of the season, playing a ton of minutes in all situations and had a great U18 tournament. Kolyachonok is a very smart and mobile defenseman who can transition the puck well. He’s not a guy who is going to wow you with his skill level, but he sees the ice quite well, with the ability to run a power play and hit seams. He’s a good skater who showed he could skate with the quicker forwards in the OHL and kill plays with his feet.
Keep in mind, this was the year Dallas drafted two defensemen with their top two picks (18th overall, and #111) in Thomas Harley, and Samuel Sjolund without picks in the second and third rounds. It’s very likely that Kolyachonok would have been on Dallas’ radar that year — and thus very likely a move with input from Dallas’ amateur scouts.
To clarify, this is not to gas up Kolyachonok as some young, up and coming puck mover. The offense that looked like it had potential never materialized, either in his D+1 year with the Flint Firebirds, or as he transitioned into the AHL with Arizona/Utah. But his cups of coffee with Arizona/Utah and Pittsburgh are encouraging, even if the sample size is too small to make judgments one way or the other.
So what does this mean? That Stars fans should get hyped?
Not really. There is currently no realistic room for Kolyachonok. Dallas’ blueline is likely Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, Esa Lindell, Nils Lundkvist, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Lian Bichsel with Alex Petrovic more likely the Stars’ seventh defender.
However, I don’t think it’s crazy to envision a world where Kolyachonok gets another cup of coffee. While being squeezed out of Utah and Pittsburgh’s blueline is hardly a letter of recommendation, it’s not like Dallas’ depth is elite enough to keep him out. This is, after all, kind of their problem. Lyubushkin and Lundkvist have both been healthy scratched for an AHL-level defensemen. Kolyachonok may or may not be NHL quality, but that simply puts him in the same boat of what has ailed the Stars. If he’s a late bloomer, or can grow comfortable on his offside, don’t be surprised if Glen Gulutzan likes his size and speed1 over Lundkvist — if not offense over Lyubushkin. Mobility and movement is something the Stars lack on the backend. While this is hardly the most efficient way to do it, there’s a non-zero chance Kolyachonok is a valid consideration.
Again, this is not to spin anything. There were far better moves to be made, whether it was Jordan Spence, or Nick Perbix. Whether these were realistic options is not the point; only that Nill could be a few less knots worth of untangling if Kolyachonok’s development is not finished.
As for Dumba, it’s unfortunate for him. He used to be a really good defender, and injuries just sort of took that all away. On a personal level, I’ve always loved his story, and I feel like we lost an opportunity to learn more about his potential connection with Jason Robertson as Filipino players in the NHL on the same team. Maybe their presence will be enough to inspire future generations so that it’s not the last.
Like you said, there is absolutely no room for him unless Nill makes another trade.
In other words, he represents an asset for something else before they will have to submit the official roster.
Trying to be optimistic, could this be a Bichsel to the right and have him line up with Esa as the 2nd line? That option lets them have all the size that they've typically craved on the 2nd line, at least a sniff of puck movement and maybe even some sneaky offense.
That would leave a log jam on the 3rd line, but the left side is between Capobianco and Kolyachonok and then the right fights for the 6&7 slots between Lyubushkin, Lundkvist & Petrovic. Maybe Nill could get a >0 return for one of those RHD even.