Monday Mailbag: (More) Sober reflections on Pete DeBoer's ignominious exit, trade rumors, the toughness debate, and more

Let's get rambling. Again.

I feel like I’ve read all the takes. Ryan Lambert. Justin Bourne. Mark Lazarus. Sean Shapiro. Robert Tiffin. Ralph Strangis. Bob Sturm.

I’m not here to say anything unique among so many fresh, experienced, and intelligent voices. But if it weren’t for the manner in which Pete DeBoer was fired — which is to say, for completely valid reasons — what would we talking about? “Jake Oettinger lost to Stuart Skinner again, the blueline wasn’t good enough, and secondary scoring dried up. Again.”

That’s what makes this hyperspace so weird. What are the chances DeBoer would have taken a group we assume will be less deep next year even further? However, if we assume that, then surely we can assume that a different coach will even less equipped to potentially take Dallas further?

If there’s one thing everyone seems to agree on, it’s that DeBoer was and is a quality coach. I tend to be somewhat skeptical on principle. There are really only a handful of coaches who can, IMO, improve the on-ice value of a team by virtue of their roster decisions, systems, and tactics. DeBoer, for all his faults, is within that small circle. I would argue his decision-making and philosophy in the Colorado series was a big reason for how Dallas made it past the first round without Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen.

In other words, I can see why so many fans had so many questions for today’s mailbag. If I didn’t answer your question, I apologize. I tried to cross-reference some of the overlap as much as I could. I sent out the chat right before DeBoer was fired, so we ended up with a tale of two bags. Nonetheless, thank you for everyone who participated.

NEED ++++ a Big Stub RHD 2nd pairing skill would be OK ASAP even if it means trading ROBO & Mavrik

I’m pretty much opposed to trading Jason Robertson. He’s one of the game’s very best wingers. His defensive impact should not be underestimated, and I don’t think people realize how good Robertson can look next to Wyatt Johnston. In their brief stint next to Mavrik Bourque, Dallas outshot Edmonton 9-4 (attempts). Beyond that, he’s elite with a capital E.

Even if you don’t buy the fancy stats — like his expected Wins Above Replacement which clocks him at 4th among forwards over the last three years (above Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon and behind Edmonton’s super twins) — I think we can all agree that his final few games versus Edmonton was probably closer to who he really was than the previous series.

Nonetheless, nobody is or should be untouchable outside of McDavid. Everybody looks at that Florida trade for Matthew Tkachuk and thinks it’s the only way to win a trade just because of everything that has happened after. But Calgary lost because they had less support for Huberdeau and Weegar. In other words, I do think there’s a world where the Huberdeau/Weegar team can win a trade.

Wild example: if, say, the New York Islanders were willing to part with Anders Lee and Noah Dobson (again, wild example because the Islanders have already said Dobson is not on the trade block) for Robertson, retaining salary on Lee who only has one year left — is Dallas a better team in this scenario? Probably. But Dobson (an RFA) is about to be paid Miro Heiskanen money, so that introduces further cap logistics. That’s the thing: the Stars just aren’t in a situation where they can pull something like this off. They would need to get super creative, in other words.

I'd like to see them look internally for cheap, potentially impactful players: Hryckowian and Hyry specifically would be guys in the A I'd give a look to.

I see a lot of love given to the Texas Stars forwards, and they certainly deserve it…in the AHL. Hryckowian is a good player. Very details-oriented. He’s scrappy. There’s a lot to love. But small, five-tools players tend to struggle at the NHL level. I’m sure someone can help me out, but the only player that comes to mind is Derek Ryan, and he wasn’t exactly a world beater. So while they’ll get looks, they’re also long shots. Yes, I know I said the same thing about Oskar Back, but Back is a bigger player. For more on Hryckowian, I wrote about him earlier in the season.

Need to inject a sense of urgency on clearing players from around their own net, and forwards need to be more spatially aware in the defensive zone.

I'd love to see some more fight from this team, not as in dropping the gloves, but as in willing to go into the dirty areas and take hits to score or make opposing teams hit the ground in front of the net.

Honestly, I'd love to figure out a way where Dallas trades Robertson to Florida for Bennett, and works out a contract with him to play here. I love Robertson, but something about how this team attacks has to change...

A lot of things going on with this comment so — dear reader, don’t take this personally. Bennett is going to be 29 later this month. Yes, setting a record near the top (second all time) for road goals in the playoffs is amazing. And yes, what he brings in terms of physicality and grit is an added component. But here’s where he’s headed…

“But a second line gritty center who can—” Before we continue, let’s keep something in mind. Bennett has never broken 60 points in his career. Is he a proven playoff performer? Sure. But here are each player’s per 60 production over the last three postseasons: 2.65 for Robertson to 2.75 for Bennett. In many ways, this only strengthens Bennett’s case, right? Who cares about Mason Marchment level production if he’s gonna go ham in the playoffs?

A number of reasons: a) Robertson’s numbers take a hit off this postseason for reasons we can all agree were due to injury that factored into his lack of production b) Bennett is projected to get seven years, at $7.6M per Evolving-Hockey…at a position Dallas is already paying their top two centers at and c) the most important one…

If Dallas tries to play like the Panthers then how do they not simply lose to a team that IS the Panthers? Dallas shouldn’t be invested in being something they’re not. Florida is locked into a tough series with an Edmonton team that doesn’t play like that (outside of Darnell Nurse’s slash). I’ll expand on this broad sentiment with the next question, but I just want to note that the Stars actually had more high danger chances than Florida in the regular season.

Is there a way to meld 'toughness' and 'finesse' into the Stars? That was obviously a plan last offseason, but the signing of Dumba didn't work. (even though I think his health affected his play.)

Is Bichsel the answer for more 'toughness' or does the team need a Nazem Kadri-type player?

Because the NHL is a “copycat league” — which says way more about what NHL teams are not good at than any sort of useful descriptor — the tendency is to look at whoever is champion and replicate some element that could be lacking in a contender. Here’s the thing (and I know your question is more nuanced): you can only ever try to be a better version of who you are rather than a different version of somebody else. Florida is a great team because their grittiest forward is also its most subtle: Barkov. They also have less subtle dudes like Bennett. Colorado, same thing: they won a Cup because offense can win championships when it’s embedded at forward and defense. Dallas needs to find a way to be better on the blueline, because their best players are never gonna turn into Kadri (Kadri is and has always been one of my favorite players.) Johnston, Hintz. Harley, etc.

In other words, I don’t think there’s a way to meld toughness and finesse if it’s not already embedded in the DNA of your best players, who opponents have to deal with the most. Toronto has shown Dallas the way here. For years the Leafs hyperfocused on this. And to their credit, I think they did meld toughness and finesse. Jake McCabe, Jake Muzzin (in his prime, Max Domi, and now Matthew Knies. Ultimately, you have to ask whether or not your core is the right mix. Toronto got everything they needed at a certain point. And it still wasn’t enough.

To me it always goes back to the same question: are you adding value? Everything else is just colored bubbles.

Nill has proved he can find $1-2MM forwards that can contribute (steel, etc). All depends on how much discount Benn and Duchene will take. I think Benn stays at $3MM....Lots of questions around our forwards....I think we sign Lundqvist for $1.5MM, I actually think he was doing pretty good before the injury...

These are all reasonable guestimates. I just hope that’s not the case. And count me in as a Lundkvist skeptic. He is not a puck mover.

Maybe I’m just being pedantic here, but a puck mover should have the ability to skate or pass the puck out from the defensive zone out. Lundkvist doesn’t have any of those skills. What he does have, is an ability to finish plays in the offensive zone. I wouldn’t say that makes him a puck mover. It just makes him blueline shooter. Maybe a different coach values him differently, but I’m not really down with this revisionist history that Lundkvist’s injury “changed things” or influenced the San Jose move. I highly doubt Lundkvist was gonna be the one playing Ceci’s minutes when it got down to the marrow.

Is Lundkvist an upgrade over Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Petrovic? Absolutely. But it might be time for some foundation work rather than paint trims.

Disappointed we have the same issue as last. RD. Edmonton gets Walman and Dallas gets Ceci

Jim Nill has talked about the importance of “resumes” when signing players. I’m curious what Nill and his pro scouts mean by that, and how much of a priority it is when the on-ice results contradict the entire point of adding value. Here are some of the available deadline defenders. As if you needed proof, Ceci is the last line on the very bottom.

I actually starting clipping his shifts for a film room session, but scrapped it because I didn’t want to be a jerk and devote an entire article to why “Player A is not good.” I do think his game is instructive, though. His defectiveness is a very subtle, which explains why coaches routinely trust him despite his teams getting massively outshot whenever he’s on the ice.

But I agree. We had this discussion when it was Lindell with Hakanpaa. Or when it was Heiskanen with Polak. Whatever this team’s blindspot is when it comes to right-shot defenders, they need to fix it.

Just to start by saying I am very much opposed to trading Robo as he is the 2nd best forward on this team right now (no offense to WyJo).

Hypothetically speaking, would you trade him to Calgary for Rasmus Anderson+?

No. There was a time when I think Andersson would have been a fantastic fit, but if you’ve been watching him lately, then you know how this works: older players gets worse with age. Granted, Andersson’s lack of pace and speed this year has a clear explanation. He played with a broken fibula near the end of the season, which is insane. But he’s been trending down for a while now. Maybe he returns to form a bit, and maybe he doesn’t cost what he’s worth, but I’m just afraid that Lindell with Andersson is the organization’s only move, and I think it sounds good in theory, but in practice I could see it being a disaster.

This was obviously bigger than just what happened with Otter. Happens all the time: a coach's message/style wears thing. Most teams wait too long. Nill saw the warning signs and made the move. On top of that, he didn't get the most out of this roster (as flawed as it was). Go back and look at DeBoer's track record. He coaches well, but has a very short shelf-life. Put me in the Carle camp.

There is definitely some validity to DeBoer’s firing. Who wants a lameduck year, anyway? It says a lot about how Dallas potentially views this next season too. If it’s a ‘stay competitive, but no big moves’ year then firing DeBoer makes a lot of sense. You don’t want the friction of dealing with a coach who assumes the team is all-in with his GM on a different page. I’m not saying Dallas isn’t all-in this next season. Of course they are. But I don’t think they’re looking to aggressively improve despite rumors about a “ruthless offseason.”

I could be wrong, of course. But Dallas’ only tradeable contracts that can genuinely free up cash (besides getting rid of Dumba and Lyubushkin) are Mason Marchment and Robertson.

I think it was a bad move and sends the wrong message to the group. I wish I could have been a fly on the wall for the players exit interviews with Nill though! Crazy to think that a GM gets to hire his 6th head coach no?

It’s funny. Out of all the takes we got out of this entire ordeal, this is the first time I’ve heard…“maybe Nill is the problem.” Granted, I don’t think he is. But if all of this obnoxious ‘wasn’t tough enough’ discussion was good for anything, it was good for absolving Nill of blueline problems that contributed to their hockey exit. Event the best GMs have flaws. For Nill, his loyalty creating slow fixes to obvious holes — think about how long it took Ruff’s teams to get good goaltending, a better blueline, or how long the it took the next batch of defensive coaches to get good secondary scoring — could be viewed as a problem.

This could have been a year where the Stars blueline was remade. Ideally Heiskanen and Harley are on separate pairs, with a vision for Lian Bichsel potentially factoring into the top four over the next two years. Instead the Lindell extension locks Dallas into keeping Bichsel on the bottom pair, and finding the perfect partner for Lindell. Again.

I think what gives Nill real runway here is that this current iteration of the Stars feels like his masterpiece. Is it incomplete? Yes. But it’s a team that wins in the regular season, they win in the playoffs, and the only problem is that they don’t have a Cup. Outside of that, they’ve got elite young players, quality veterans, good depth, a number one goaltender, with the only thing standing in his own way — an eye for pro scouting. Especially on defense.

On top of Dumba & Lyubushkin, We have to trade Marchment, right? I know he has some good metrics and is best buds with Otter and all, but you can't take more penalties than points in the playoffs. It hurts the team. And his antics don't work anymore. He gets zero benefit of the doubt from officials. That money could be better spent elsewhere. I guess, unless you're just convinced that he and Seguin are your 3rd line staples. I just think a better 3rd line winger could be had (even if it's someone already in the system).

I think the organization likes Marchment. Yea, the penalties. But if it’s agreed upon that Dallas lacks toughness, then why take away one of the few players who provides that? Not saying I agree. Because I don’t. If anything Marchment illustrates that fine line between adding something Dallas lacks, and adding value. But I think Marchment is a pretty nuanced player that does a lot of little things he rarely gets credit for. Although you have to wonder that Marchment and Seguin will look like without Duchene.

Just keep benn, and Lundkvist and granlund send the rest ot ufa away. Trade dumba. Bourque takes duschene spot.

I’m gonna write about this tomorrow. I think they should focus on upgrading the defense and worry about bringing back the UFAs later.

If I could make a plan, it would be: buy out Dumba, trade Lyubushkin, trade Marchment for Maccelli. Resign Blackwell, let all other UFA walk except for Benn who we all know will be back, and Lundquist.

• Maccelli-Hintz-Moose

• Robo-WyJo-Seguin

• Mav-Steel-Blumel

• Benn-Back-Hywrz

• Hryr

• Harley-Miro

• Lindell-Nils

• Bischel-Petro

• Rando 7thD

• Otter

• DeSmith

I like where your head is at. I’m a huge fan of Matias Maccelli. Like Artturi Lehkonen and Carter Verhaeghe, his record and brief resume scream breakout candidate. Granted, Maccelli is a very different player (much more of a pure playmaker than either of those) than both. Nonetheless, these are the players I’d like to see the Stars go after. I’ll talk about more this offseason, however.

The one thing that I have consistently said about DeBoer is he has not made a game plan that fits his players. He was wanting things out of his defense they couldn’t do. He should have tried to make them the best at what they can do.

Jack Han wrote a really good piece about the philosophical difference between Edmonton and Florida, and how one team wants their defenders controlling the puck while the other doesn’t. Dallas is much close to Edmonton in this regard, in that Stars defenders generate a lot of puck touches, and build plays from the backend. The massive difference is that Edmonton’s defenders have the legs and deception to draw forwards close to create more space for the exiting forwards. The Stars don’t have this. The end result is that the Stars weren’t actually a good defensive team this year. Away from goaltending, they were 22nd in goals against per 60 at EV. Would a systems switchup have changed the team direction? I’m not sure. It’s a question way above my paygrade, but something I’ll try to dig into when we do a report card for DeBoer.

With DeBoer out, does this make it more or less likely that Jamie is back? A part of me says, clean slate for the new coach. The other part says they'll want some continuity in leadership.

I would say it makes no difference at all. The team and the organization love Benn, and will try to bring him back no matter what. I’ve said my peace on this topic. I’d like to see Dallas move on under new leadership on the ice. But I don’t mind Benn under a small contract minus the captaincy.

RE: DeBoer

I really like everything he brought to Dallas. The DeBoer era will probably be one of my favorites for a long time. After what happened with Game 5 though, particularly choosing to blame Oettinger for both this and last year’s WCF struggles, I soured on him a bit.

I would’ve been okay with him staying, but I think the fact that he’s gone means he lost a lot of the locker room with those choices. Wishing him the best moving forward.

I really would love to see Nill look at Neil Graham down in Cedar Park. I also think it’s worth giving both David Carle and Jay Woodcroft a call too. I’d also like them to not be afraid to look at other AHL and Juniors coaches. It’s risky for sure, but maybe it’s exactly what we need? (See Knoblauch in EDM)

Nill’s response to the question about the Oettinger comments felt like confirmation that it was about the Oettinger comments. I don’t know if Graham is the answer, but if all the assistant coaches are staying, then he’s in an ideal spot in some ways. Carle is my top choice, but it doesn’t sound like Dallas is gonna throw that much cash someone’s way. Woodcroft is a solid coach IMO. Honestly, I’m not interested in the other names.

Here in Finland they (as in reporters, analysts, so called experts, ex coaches and ex NHL players) say that PDB made both Heiskanen and Hintz if not regress but at least not to play at their full potential. They think both were so obedient and dutiful that they did not do all they could, but instead did exactly what the coach wanted. Meanwhile, e.g. Harley seemed to take little more liberties from the PDB's game plan and was more creative with his play, i.e. better.

Because of this, many are excited about the coach change and believes Heiskanen and Hintz can be (even) better in the future, reaching the greatness.

But in Finland, you can expect that POV is kind of Finnish, so...

I don’t know how to respond to this comment, but it was worth keeping it here since it’s coming from a Finnish reader, which I greatly appreciate (although having more subscribers from Australia than Finland feels like one of my great complaints¹). My generic response is that different systems and different tactics will naturally get more out of different players whose style and preference more directly benefit than from those who won’t. Would someone like Graham benefit Heiskanen and Hintz a bit more? It won’t take long for us to find out.

1. Or perhaps great failures.