Morning Strays: Figuring out the Dallas Stars, power rankings, mock trade proposals, previewing Washington, and Lian Bichsel's debut

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It never quite feels like it’s enough does it?

It’s easy to see why Stars fans seem to be split between Doom and Gloom, and Don’t Stop Believing. Dallas is 5-5 over their last 10. Within that stretch, they can boast wins over Central rivals, Winnipeg and Colorado. They can also hang their heads in shame over Central rival losses to Chicago and Nashville. Perhaps it’s fitting then, that they got back on track this weekend by something of a hockey whisker; struggling to beat Jordan Binnington until Matt Duchene managed the impossible in overtime.

And that’s kind of the thing. “Whisker? They outshot St. Louis 37 to 16.” Fair enough. It’s a difficult time for fans, who want Dallas to look like the contender they’ve been led to believe for the last two seasons. They have every reason to feel justified. Two Western Conference Finals, not to mention, a young core — meaning whatever their shortcomings, said shortcomings should be fleeting. Right?

I suspect this is what makes the Tyler Seguin injury so mission critical. The Stars could be in the perfect position come playoff time to push their chips in. But the severity of the looming deadline depends on who the Stars are, exactly. If it’s true that their young core are just in the middle of a bad patch, then yes, throw the chips in along with the keys to the car. If not; if the young core doesn’t quite have the ceiling we’ve assumed, then giving up assets to get better would be the same as throwing them away. Giving up anything for a rental is always a gamble to begin with. But do we really know who these Stars are?

Let’s focus on the present. Last week, Dallas fell out of the top 10 in the NHL power rankings per The Athletic, falling below the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Stars are definitely a team that’s been trending down, at least as far as shot quality is concerned, since their season high between games 15-20. However, they’re still an overall plus.

Data and visual courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.

I’m still withholding broad judgment about this Stars team. Their weaknesses are relatively isolated in the grand scheme of things — as in, better a weak power play than weak shot quality differential at EV. And while we can reasonably question the ceiling of players like Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston, I also feel like we’re clearly experiencing their nadirs. Somehow that hasn’t destroyed this team, which I consider telling, and a credit to the rest of the roster that so many internal obstacles hasn’t accelerated some kind of collapse.

The rest of December should give us the remaining clues about the 2024-2025 Stars, and what we can expect to see them carry into the new year. Washington, Toronto (ugh¹), New York, Utah, Minnesota, Chicago, and Buffalo. That’s a credible litmus test for Dallas, with an even distribution of good teams, mid teams, and tanking teams.

If the Stars have just been the victim of a slow start, then the following schedule should be a success. If all they can yield is a stretch of .500, well then management might need to start asking some hard questions.

Lian Bichsel debuts

I’ve been a fan of Bichsel for some time. I even listed him among three players I considered Untouchable. I’ll have more to say about him tomorrow via en episode of Tales From The Clipped. Unfortunately that means I’ll be skipping the prospect report, but this will be the rare exception for an exceptional case. The only thing I wanted to say here is that I think Bichsel has already well and truly made his case. Even with only two games, the minutes he’s getting from the coaching staff make extremely clear how confident they are in him versus the rest of their options (for example, it says a lot that they didn’t throw play Brendan Smith with a healthy Nils Lundkvist).

Mikael Granlund for a 2nd and a 4th rounder?

That’s James Mirtle’s proposal.

I know Granlund is having a career year. But how much longer until his production falters and he turns into the player he’s been over the last three seasons?

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That is, a player who has awful impacts on defense (much like Seguin, only worse), bad defensive impacts while shorthanded, good impact on observed goals and only decent impact on expected goals (much unlike Seguin, who was elite in these categories). I’m just not a fan of this potential deal, and don’t see the appeal beyond what it could do for marketing.

The other thing is that the 2025 draft will offer some value where Dallas needs it. Someone like David Bedhowski, a righthanded Bichsel, will likely go in the second round. Same with Charlie Trethewey, who I took a look at here in our early 2025 Draft preview. Good teams find talent in the second round, and this year has potential to be no different.

I’m not saying a second rounder is untouchable, just that they’re not magic beans either.

Dallas versus Washington

The Capitals are first in the Metro and by a significant margin looking only at points percentage. This is thanks to some banner years by their two young centers in Dylan Strome and Connor McMichael, and hulking Russian winger Aliaksei Protas (who went in the third round in 2019). Per Evolving-Hockey, they’re the top EV goal-scoring team above replacement, supported by positive differentials in every category: shot rates, shot quality, shooting percentage, and save percentage. Interestingly, HockeyViz favors Dallas.

As always, the Stars power play will garner a lot of focus. I thought they looked really good against St. Louis, and have for several games running. While there are a lot of problems to Dallas’ man advantage, I do think their unlucky breaks are playing a heavier role than fans want to believe, as evidence by their heat map. This is not to make excuses. 29 games in is a decent sample size at this point, and there are plenty of valid criticisms about who goes where. But don’t be surprised if we see the power play get less of the spotlight during this final stretch of the year. After all, their current even-strength scoring is far more concerning.

1. As in, for whatever reason, these two teams always give us low-scoring stinkers despite the firepower involved.