Ready for another stupid game between the Dallas Stars and the Toronto Maple Leafs?

I'm not!

Since 2018, the Maple Leafs have only lost twice in 10 matchups versus the Dallas Stars. Dallas is scoring 2.1 goals per game over that span versus whatever Conjuring-level spirit that’s buffering their Canadian rivals. I don’t get it, and I don’t want to get it.

I don’t normally process the game as a fan at this point in my life. That’s just the nature of analysis, and the way I’ve chosen to write about hockey. Obviously, I’m a fan at heart, otherwise I wouldn’t devote my life to Dallas Stars hockey. But reacting within games as a fan isn’t something that comes natural. The exception, of course, is Dallas versus Toronto.

Maybe it has nothing to do with being a fan, and everything to do with how annoying this bizarre phenomenon is. Even in seasons where one team is bad, and the other is good (which is rare), we get these low-event duds between two otherwise extremely successful franchises. Except for William Nylander, who is a point-per-game player against Dallas in his 13 appearances, the stars never get to be stars. Everyone else gets to embarrass the Maple Leafs at least once. Even the zamboni drivers¹ can literally lay claim to beating the Leafs. But not Dallas.

And that disturbs me. You didn’t come here for my 4-out-of-10 story about the nature of my fandom, such as it is, but I’m gonna tell you anyways. I used to love Toronto. Like a good cheat day, or just a game of Marvel vs. Capcom, we all have our personal sideboard of teams that interest us, whether because of certain players, a certain culture, the city the team is connected to, or history.

Growing up, it was the Leafs for me. I loved Tie Domi, Wendel Clark, Doug Gilmour, and Curtis Joseph. Even my hockey writing roots owe Leafs fans at SB Nation, who penned the famous Who Had A Better Free Agency Day: Dave Nonis or a Potato? in 2013; possibly the best takedown of upper management incompetence you’ll ever read. Before then, I didn’t think of hockey as a source for critical analysis until a bunch of discerning fans—as well as “bloggers” turned NHL hires like Darryl Metcalf, Cam Charron, and Rob Pettapiece—showed me the way.

TL; DR I have a love/hate relationship with a lot of things in life, and Dallas vs. Toronto is one of them.

Preview

Both teams have been relatively hot over their last stretch, although also coming off losses; Dallas to Ottawa, Toronto to Vancouver. Dallas is the slight favorite, which means nothing in this matchup, but nonetheless. Their recent performances have been better than Toronto’s recent performances.

Toronto, like Dallas, is experiencing a weird dry spell for the top goal scorer. Like Jason Robertson, Auston Matthews hasn’t been his usual blistering self. He only has 14 goals this year, and like Robertson, injuries have been the story. Unlike Robertson, Matthews’ “injury” remains a mystery, including a five-day trip that involved him visiting a doctor in Germany. Frankly, ever since the Jack Eichel drama in Buffalo, I’m all for players taking more ownership over what is done to their own bodies.

Off the top of my head, the two major things to watch are the power play and Jamie Benn.

I don’t want to belabor the power play point as if everyone and their great great grandmothers don’t already know. The good news—and I hesitate to call it that—is that Dallas should accidentally score a few more power play goals. No really; consider the splits. They have twenty 5-on-4 goals on the year. In the first half of the season, they scored 10 between October 10th and November 27th. However, they deserved—per expected goals/shot quality—17. From November 27th until today, they’ve scored 10 power goals. They ‘deserved’ 19 during that stretch. So yes, there are good reasons for why [Insert Now-Ubiquitous Unforgiven Quote]. And we’ve talked about them, at length.

But it’s just getting comical at this point, even if the lack of trying anything new with the top unit is far and away the biggest reason IMO.

The irony is that Benn has been a freight train lately. He has six goals and four assists over his last 10. However, it’s not magic. Now on a line with Duchene and Johnston, Dallas is outscoring the opposition with them on the ice 9 to 4, controlling 58 percent of the expected goal share.

Programming note: Thank you all for the lively discussion yesterday about Dallas and toughness. Part of what separates this writing experience from anywhere else is me being able to more directly connect with readers. I know I don’t always reply, but I always read, and yesterday was a great display of this connection.

One thing I’ll be cutting down on recently is prospect analysis. Hold your horses. Prospect reports are not going anywhere on the whole, but with the 4 Nations Tournament coming up, along with the ongoing LTIR/deadline discussion, I’m simply gonna be catching less Boston College, Clarkson, Barrie Colts, and Texas Stars (et cetera) games. Plus, in case you haven’t noticed; this month is loaded. There’s a whopping eight games left in the month after tonight’s contest with Toronto.

1. Who worked for the team no less.