Stars Stuff: Dallas loses 4-1 to Ottawa, Logan Stankoven back in action, film on defensive prospect Gavin White, and previewing the Carolina game
A postgame recap about Texas hockey in general.
To be honest, I’m never comfortable analyzing games like this. Even the best teams are allowed to lay an egg, and against teams they should beat. Ottawa is one of those teams. They’ve been rebuilding for what he feels like forever, and I always get the impression that their youth and energy just gives Dallas — which tends to be old no matter the roster — all kinds of fits.
Do I buy this? Not really. But when I’m thinking about takeaways after a game, I’m trying to unpack something instructive for the future. Dallas’ loss to Ottawa will be a blip on the regular season radar when all is said and done. They’re also on the tailend of a difficult road trip, which mercifully ends on Saturday versus the Carolina Hurricanes. Remember how bad a good Kings team looked against the Stars when they were also on the tailend of their difficult road trip? Just saying.
Still, it was hard not to give this team the smoke for their performance. That’s their fourth loss in a row. Jake Oettinger getting pulled is something that has plagued the team for most of the season. The defensive depth, which has plagued Dallas for multiple seasons, is an issue. At this point I consider the Matt Duchene line the top line, since that’s exactly how they’re producing, as I argued earlier today. The lines below the top line remain an issue. Which means the trade deadline, which despite its reputation has some truly sterling additions if Jim Nill pulls the trigger, can’t come soon enough.
However, I do want to note something. The Senators are not a playoff team. But under Jacques Martin, they are serious. Ottawa is allowing eight less shots per game under Martin, which would be top five in the league over a full season. And it’s thanks to less forechecking, not more. I bring this up because I couldn’t help but feel like Ottawa was playing exactly how a playoff team might if they wanted to beat the Thomas Harley-Miro Heiskanen pair. Don’t give them the chance to isolate a forechecker and create odd-man scenarios.
That’s a little bit of a reach, but I think there’s more truth to that than “well tough schedule.” I believe in the tough schedule factor, but LA was a good exhausted team losing to a good, rested team. Ottawa is not that team, despite the stylistic trappings when just mentioned.
Plus, not for nothing, but Dallas never generates offense when they’re down by three.
It’s more amusing than anything, as Dallas is almost never down by three. Still, it was the only thing I could think of as the Stars just kind of went through the motions at the end there.
I don’t know that there’s any good news other than that Thomas Harley is elite, and Jacob Chychrun looks like he’d be a good partner for him. Hey, I’m allowed to dream right?
Programming note
Don’t forget to give me your hot takes!
I haven’t broken down the schedule next week because I’m juggling a few things at the moment (plus whatever’s next for D Magazine), but it’s gonna be a doozy with Colorado (on the road) and Winnipeg (at home) next week. Anything else? Of course! Let’s talk about Dallas’ prospects.
Logan Stankoven returns from Madison Square Garden
I saw some people joking about Stankoven not showing up on the scoresheet for being heartbroken after the whirlwind that was Tuesday. That’s probably silly, but not as an assumption. More because he did plenty to deserve to be on the scoresheet. (Granted, this play is really all Mavrik Bourque but still.)
Stankoven still has work to do. He’s got Curtis McKenzie’s record to break. The discussion about playing NHL games may happen sooner rather than later, and nobody wants to see it as much as I do, but in the context of contracts, plans, and development (no matter how nebulous a term), it’s just the reality.
Beyond that (I start a lot of sentences with this phrase don’t I? Writing is hard folks!), Stankoven is one of the most driven players I’ve ever seen. Recall that this is a kid that determined he wouldn’t lose a footrace to Nathan MacKinnon in open ice (!). If anything this is the scouting knock on Stankoven; he’s too much motor, too much of the time. I mention this because it’ll be interesting to watch how his game develops at the NHL level.
Does it learn to slow it down? If so, how does that change his effectiveness? Will he be able to maintain the pace he plays with? If so, will that refine what he’s already good at, or will it displace better habits? I don’t know. What I do know is that nothing phases him, and TSN should have shown him more respect.
Let’s talk about Gavin White
Dallas doesn’t have many defensive prospects. Even in number, they’re largely ghosts in the cupboard. I mention this to keep that bias in check. It’s easy for a defensive prospect to look good when all his peers look so bad. (Keep in mind, I mean broadly speaking.) When I watch Gavin White — an overager picked in the 2022 fourth round — I don’t believe I’m falling victim to that effect.
However, I also don’t know how hyped Stars fans should be. There’s a real trading card quality to his game. As in, he plays like a collection of traits and images. His speed is pro-quality, which is the first thing you get out of watching him. (White is #24, who starts out at the bottom of the right dot.)
But his acceleration is something else. I mentioned this on Twitter, how he starts this play in the defensive zone, and immediately jailbreaks the neutral zone. He gets stopped on this play.
Probably because the player defending him is none other than 6’6 Simon Edvinsson, Detroit’s top defensive prospect. But he made Edvinsson work. White is nowhere near the prospect that Edvinsson is, but it drives home the point that White’s physicality, when leveraged to its fullest extent, is high level.
However, there’s another layer to this, and it’s a big part of what colors my perception. As the game wore on, White genuinely got cooking. (Sneaky release on the shot too.)
And that’s the common denominator for me. White has been a depth defender all season, occasionally earning a healthy scratch. With the primary veterans like Petrovic and Pouliot getting their coffee in the NHL, White has very briefly been given a bigger role, more minutes, and most critically — more minutes with Texas’ best players. I’m a big believer in teammates mattering more than competition. After all, one you can control for, the other you can’t. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Mavrik Bourque took off once he had an elite talent next to him instead of “struggled to adjust.”
I’m not saying there’s no truth to Bourque genuinely having to adjust. But I also don’t think the rate of development is always on the player either. Back to White, I don’t think his jump in presence is a coincidence with better linemates either. Playing with better players can be empowering for a player. At last, you can make plays and trust your teammates to have your back (or front!). You don’t have to play conservative all the time, or worry about what happens if you don’t. Decision-making, which has been the most mercurial part of his game, doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s hard to choose the optimal play knowing your teammate is likely to choose the suboptimal one.
White really looks like a guy with the gloves off, and he’s been doing nothing but swinging.
Carolina on Saturday
The Hurricanes are 13-5 since the new year, and have won their last three games by a combined score of 14 to 5. Seth Jarvis in particular has been on a heater. I don’t know what to expect other than that this one could get ugly. Granted, Carolina is usually not the Win By a Touchdown type, but the Stars are on fumes. Players to watch?
Whatever goaltender starts.
The top line, whether it’s Wyatt Johnston or Joe Pavelski up there. Honestly I think it’s time to split Robertson and Hintz up. To me you start with Johnston and Hintz, and go from there.
I’d mention someone from the blueline but who can control a shift besides the obvious? That’s why names like Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifan are so interesting. While it’s unfair to group Esa Lindell with the others, he’s simply not a territorial defender. He’s support. He’s backup. Somebody else needs to at the wheel.
Speaking of Hanifan, I still don’t understand it. It would be awesome, don’t get me wrong. He’s an excellent defender, but it basically keeps Heiskanen on his weakside forever, unless they want to keep Harley up top, with Hanifan forcing Lindell to his weakside? If ever there was a time to run an experiment on how much handedness matters, Dallas looks primed to be the team to run it.
Random prediction: Ty Dellandrea fights Michael Bunting. He gets bodied so much, he’s gotta take that frustration out on some eventually, right?
Tonight’s game was another example to me that Otter is like Marty Turco in that he can make the highlight reel stops and then the soft, no way he lets it in happens. I remember the night someone put one of those flip out of trouble pucks from the other side of the Blue line. It hit about 8 or 10 foot in front of him and he completely whiffed it. The Stars are going only as far as the goaltenders take them