Stars Stuff: Glen Gulutzan's press conference, Radek Faksa's return, and a statistical look at Dallas' current lineup

A lot is happening, even if it feels like not a lot is improving. Or is it?

And now begins the second of its kind: the Glen Gulutzan era.

For the most part, I’ve struggled to wrap my head around the entire offseason. I felt like I was losing my mind hearing whispers about trying to bring Mikael Granlund back, worrying about whether or not they’d pull an anti-miracle and sign Cody Ceci to some kind of insane four year, $4.5M a year deal — something Ken Holland in L.A. was kind enough to do instead. “Where are the rumors about a proper blueliner?” I keep asking myself. And I keep forgetting: oh right, Dallas kind of needs a coach.

The Pete DeBoer drama has been an unfortunate distraction from what Dallas needs to do to improve on ice. It’s a situation that doesn’t need re-litigation. And yet it still casts something of a shadow, especially in light of the Gulutzan hire: how can anyone improve on DeBoer’s resume in Dallas?

Again, this isn’t about taking the saga back to square one. Even if DeBoer got Dallas to three Cup Finals in a row — no coach in recent memory has ever given such a vulgar display of Just Lost The Room. Instead I’m left wondering about expectations. If Dallas loses in round one or two, will it be perceived as less of a failure because a new coach is “learning the ropes?” Is this just kind of stopgap year where the team is what it is and they’ll rerack the following year? Or…did Gulutzan wow Jim Nill and the war room in the interview process, offering them a vision built on the current roster being capable of better?

As I wrote the other day, I do believe Gulutzan deserves the benefit of the doubt. There’s a massive risk to bringing in a new head coach who doesn’t have that much experience, spearheading a roster that is somehow supposed to one-up three consecutive WC Finals appearances. In some ways, it sets Gulutzan up for failure. Unless, of course — his case was that strong.

Gulutzan speaks

I’m not going to talk too much about the content of Gulutzan’s press conference. The honeymoon period is always the same: Lindy Ruff, Ken Hithcock, Jim Montgomery, Rick Bowness, Pete DeBoer — they always say the right things. To Gulutzan’s credit, he joked about this very thing.

Let’s break it down stray observation style:

• Neil Graham will be working with the forwards and running the power play. Gulutzan mentioned that he’s been fortunate to work with coaches who let their assistants do their own thing. Granted, we always knew that Gulutzan wasn’t coming in to run a power play, but it’s something that will be worth tracking once the season begins.

• Gulutzan had a lot to say about the nature of the playoffs, and the physicality within it. He compared deep runs to “hand to hand combat.” While this had a little Red Meat for the Masses energy given the Stars fans complaints about this team’s lack of toughness, it’s not something I’m here to pedantically criticize. It’s an observation that I think is more astute than it appears at first glance. A playoff series is such a small sample size in the grand scheme of things. Who would have thought going into the 2025 postseason that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be Florida’s stiffest test on the way to a repeat? We so often get caught up in what each series represents that I don’t think we benefit from making judgments about a team after a series loss, as if the bottom line is always Winners = Better, and Losers = Worse. Sure, it sucks and ends the season. But progress in the NHL is a jagged edge. I don’t believe for one second that Gulutzan is talking about Dallas needing to hit more and up their scrum counter in order to win. He’s talking about an element of Deep Playoff Run Hockey that needs to be honed before the playoffs ever begin.

• Systems. I’m glad Lia Assimakopoulos asked about the potential systems change. Nobody really talks about Pete DeBoer’s odd systems switch this year. His defensive scheme went from a swarm to a man-on-man hybrid system¹. It was a shift that hurt Dallas in the stats too, as they were a poor defensive team — just going by expected goals against per game, adjusted for minutes — for the entire season. Granted, I think that was DeBoer’s way of giving his defenders the puck as little as possible — a philosophical dichotomy that was present in the Cup Finals — but nonetheless. The Stars have a very unique roster in that it’s extremely deep, but still in search of an identity. I wrote about this a couple of years ago. Something like this feels more important than ever. I don’t know that Gulutzan really answered the question — nor would I expect him to — but I liked the recognition.

• Nitpick: when asked about whether “familiarity” factored into the decision to hire Gulutzan, all I wanted to hear from Nill was “No. It’s a bonus for him. Not for us.” That’s it. It’s not the kind of thing I would normally highlight, except familiarity would factor into another decision that I was quite explicitly less fond of. Which we’ll get to.

Overall it felt like a press conference. Questions were asked, and questions were answered. It’s the actions that will tell us everything.

Radek Faksa, three years, $2 million AAV

Roope Hintz. Wyatt Johnston. Matt Duchene. Sam Steel. Oskar Bäck. Throw in Mavrik Bourque. With this in mind, did Dallas need another center? Nope. But here we are, and yes, I’m gonna complain — just a little.

As I said on Twitter, there is no such thing as a nothing contract. Players either add or subtract value in proportion to their cap hit, and either add or subtract on-ice value in proportion to their minutes. The point is to end up with a surplus. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors. How many contracts like these do you see on Florida’s roster?

This is less about Faksa — who has defensive value at least — and more about how Dallas is managing their cap crunch. It’s not just about the money, but what the money represents to Nill and his pro scouts. If the team wanted size, why not Anthony Mantha? The Stars need wings more than centers. What was wrong with giving Matěj Blümel, who signed with Boston, a proper promotion after the season he had? What’s wrong with the current center depth as is? Was Matias Maccelli ever mentioned in the war room — the perfect candidate to replace Mikael Granlund and at half the cost no less? I know what Nill and his pro scouts tell me because a press release isn’t exactly James Joyce, therefore I can read one. I want to know what the vision is, and how a player who was healthy scratched the last time he was here is supposed to add value in proportion to a two-million dollar cap hit. Is it because he shot 50 percent in the playoffs this year? Because he’s good at faceoffs, as if faceoffs are somehow the only thing a center ever does? (see my response below: also see Florida’s faceoff win percentage this year²) Or was it because Faksa was more familiar, and thus a more “qualified” add?

So that’s my complaint. This is not a nothing contract. It’s not ‘whatever.’ It’s a contract that subtracts value in proportion to cap, and subtracts on-ice value in proportion to minutes (at least if you want your forwards to score). Nobody needed to wait and see with the Lyubushkin and Dumba signings. We don’t need to wait and see with this one. $2 million a year for a potential 13th forward is straight baffling; especially as a move to put Dallas hard over the cap.

Colin Blackwell, two years, $775,000 AAV

It’s nice to be able to talk about a good contract. While Blackwell isn’t necessarily the analytics darling he once was, he’s dirt cheap, quick, disciplined, good on the penalty kill, and owned the big moment.

Niilopekka Muhonen signs his ELC

I apologize for the snark on Twitter. But I was genuinely excited about the Muhonen signing. The Medicine Hat Tigers just won the WHL championship with a blistering 16-2 record. Sure, Muhonen didn’t have that much to do with it (credit to Gavin McKenna, next year’s James Hagens probably, and Tanner Molendyk) but Muhonen was still a decent part of that team. And he’s a solid player in my viewings this year. While I didn’t talk about him too much throughout the year, you can read my impressions of him below. (I have him ranked 10 in my top 10, for whatever that’s worth.)

Looking ahead

While the offseason may feel like a disappointment so far — and it’s hard to envision how it even gets to a point where Dallas actively improves the roster — it’s always worth remembering that Dallas still has an extremely talented roster. It was easy to take their depth for granted given the LTIR they were able to take advantage of.

Speaking of, using Louis Boulet’s work to estimate team value, the last time we did this exercise with Dallas’ 2025 playoff roster, that team was mathematically worth 104 points in the standings. How do the calculations work? In the broad strokes, Boulet’s work is based on the concept of Wins Above Replacement, except instead of talking about “Wins” he uses standings points as a unit of measurement. I’ve done my best to explain this concept for the layfan here. Where Boulet’s work differs is in the way he attempts to calculate interlinking skills i.e. chemistry. I’m gonna go down a rabbithole and write an explainer during slow season, but for now, humor me if you’re a stats skeptic.

How does Dallas’ current roster stack up to the one they took in the playoffs? The answer might — kind of — surprise you.

That’s only three less projected points than the playoff roster.

All of this assumes the current roster is the one they take into the regular season. Steel on the top line might look a little strange, but he has experience on a top line, having played a 30-game stretch in Minnesota with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. It’s possible Steel slots into the third line, and Matt Duchene maybe pops onto the top line for a maxed-out top six. Who knows. Regardless, the foundation is there for a strong roster locked into a playoff slot. It helps that the Central division didn’t exactly get better.

I wouldn’t expect much beyond what already exists though. Dallas appears to be exploring trade options when it comes to Matt Dumba, as they should. It’s a lot cleaner to just eliminate that contract from their books. But trading Dumba at this point only gets Dallas under the cap. Take Dumba’s $3.7M away and that’ll leave the Stars with $1,955,084 in cap. That hardly leaves room for a Dimitry Orlov (not that he would make much sense here), or a Victor Olofsson. Even then I only mention them because they’re the only decent names left on the market off the top of my head.

That leaves — if Dallas were to add more juice — a potential trade. Is that likely? No. Chances are, what you see is what you get. Now the question is whether or not the same holds true of Dallas’ new coach.

Programming notes

Finally, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Next week we start the report cards. I’ll post one each day Monday through Friday, starting with the forwards, then the defenders, then the goalies. At least one will be paywalled, and they’ll start in descending order according to cap. Any big news I’ll be on top of, unlike usual.

August may be the doldrums, but I have a little extra spice planned. For now, thank you to all who subscribe. Thank you to all those on who have joined our fun Discord community. So yea. Keep reading. I’ll keep writing.

1. A defensive swarm is what it sounds like, with both defenders attacking the side of the ice that the puck is on. Jack Han has a great analogy (and explanation) for it here. This year DeBoer went to a hybrid system in which Dallas played zone coverage with the puck down low, and man-on-man with the puck up high.

2. Yes, Faksa had a career high faceoff-win percentage. And that’s what worries me. Seems like every player with a career year always lands the easy mark. Faksa’s career average on the dots is 52 percent: exactly what Oskar Bäck posted this season. Does the team really not trust Bäck all of a sudden?