Stars Stuff: Harley's overtime, depth statements, previewing Utah, and a more interesting stat than the 15-game point streak

This Dallas team is not who we thought they were.

The Detroit game was kind of a mixed bag for me. It was the rare game where the Stars looked incredible early on, and genuinely stumbled down the stretch; and not in the typical ‘turtled unsuccessfully’ way. Detroit had the edge 12 to 9 in high danger chances. But don’t let me ruin the good vibes. And don’t worry. I’ve got a lot of very positive stuff to say about Dallas, and something that goes beyond the 15-game point streak to tie the franchise record set by the Cup-winning 1999 squad. But more on that in a bit.

Whatever your thoughts are of the Stars that night, one thing stood out to me in the Red Wings game: the depth. And no, not in a national broadcast way where they spend 30 minutes analyzing some also-ran’s perfunctory hit or whatever. I mean depth with texture.

Justin Hryckowian, Arttu Hyry, Mavrik Bourque. We’ve gone well past the point of giving them credit for overachieving. They are, at this point, simply achieving. They all bring layers and not just traits to roles that otherwise ask for nothing more than throwing hits and not turning the puck over. Playmaking, forechecking, stick-checking, destruction on the dots — in just seven games, Hyry is a magical +11 on faceoffs per 60 minutes of EV play, which is third among forwards, above Auston Matthews, Phillip Danault, J.T. Miller, and Jordan Staal¹ — etc. Sure some goal scoring would be nice, but Dallas doesn’t have a problem scoring goals.

I think it’s part of what explains why the Stars have remained so effective in the absence of Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz. They don’t just have warm bodies in roles out of their depth; they have depth of their own, providing added value in different ways. A good shift doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It has a ripple effect. And Dallas is getting a lot of good ripples.

Harley in the abstract

There’s a different tenor in the discussion about Harley for obvious reasons: he started out in the hurt locker, and now he’s elite again. But I want to focus on a different discussion. Harley is on track to score over 30 points, which will be his career low through a full season. Without a significant role on the power play or the penalty kill, his place on the team would theoretically be at a crossroads. After all, there’s no reason why any of this should change. Miro Heiskanen seems to be doing great under Neil Graham’s system, and it’s not like Lindell’s minutes on the PK are going anywhere.

There’s a good chance you won’t see this kind of status for a $10.6M a year player, anywhere else. The reason I’m bringing this up is because it’s useful for thinking about the runup to Jason Robertson’s fate. Caps change, which means percentages change, and within all of this, so do roles. Roope Hintz was once Dallas’ top center. Not anymore. Does that make him less valuable on the ice? It’s easy to get lost in the contradictions of hierarchy. But when we juxtapose Harley’s performance when Heiskanen was absent last season, or Robertson with the absence of Rantanen this season, it should bring into focus something unique about this Stars team: the difference between a team has players of value versus a team that has surplus value.

Harley may be technically overpaid in proportion to his role, but his on-ice value is irreplaceable, and crucial to Dallas’ turnaround.

The new guy

I hyped up Michael Bunting didn’t I? Maybe. I think everyone more or less understands that the transition is never easy. Nobody expects a point-per-game player either. And certainly not with where Bunting is playing. Nonetheless, even within that context, I felt like Bunting had been a little too quiet. Nobody was going to judge him after just a few games, but still.

Needless to say, it was good to see him fired up on that goal. Yes, Robertson’s pass was absolutely brilliant. But that goal was no tap-in. Bunting had to anticipate that angle and place his stick accordingly. I guarantee you the majority of Dallas’ bottom six would not have capitalized on that Robertson pass; assuming they even got the shot off. Again, small sample sizes and all that. But I do think we can anticipate seeing a much different player once Hintz and Rantanen are back, which is likely where he slots once they return.

15 games, all the scoring chances

The 15-game point streak is impressive. The reason why I don’t dwell too much on stuff like this is that process is always more predictive of what to expect than outcomes. Jake Oettinger has not lost in regulation during their historic stretch, but that doesn’t mean he’s been brilliant, as I’ve discussed.

There are always things that go into a stretch like this and it’s never just one thing. Yes, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston dominating the power play has been huge. Thomas Harley becoming Thomas Harley again has been huge. A lot of things are clicking, but I want to point out scoring chances since January 22 (I’m choosing the 22nd because that’s when the new DJ Steel line was born, and when Duchene became a savage again).

Scoring chances, defined as any shot attempt taken within the homeplate area of the ice, are 361 to 258 in Dallas’ favor. That’s a 58 percent share of scoring chances, which leads the league during that stretch. The Stars are also first in high danger shot share at a whopping 64 percent. It’s one of the reasons why PDO doesn’t even enter into this discussion. Their shooting percentage is 4th since January 22, and their save percentage is 15th. So again: a PDO bender this is not.

Tactically, I don’t think a lot has really changed. We can dig more into the film room later as to why, and what, but for now we can call this turnaround what it is: an awakening.

Previewing tonight

Utah should prove to be a stiffer test than Edmonton (flawed and poor defensively) and Detroit (flawed and poor everywhere except netminding). Except for special teams, they’re a team of good habits in 80 percent of the game, especially with Logan Cooley back.

In fact, Utah might very well be what breaks the playoff formatting — or rather, what causes Gary Bettman and the NHL to consider that developing hockey might actually take effort, and potential changes. Right now the Mammoth are nowhere near catching anyone in the Central. But they could very well finish with more points than the top three teams in the Pacific.

Imagine that. In the first round, we could get two top five teams playing each other (Dallas vs. Minnesota at #2 and #5, respectively), with a wild card team (Utah) facing the Pacific winner without home-ice advantage despite finishing with more points than their Pacific opponent (!).

One of the main things to watch in this matchup is the neutral zone. Utah was the top rush team² last season, and they remain a very good one this season as well. Conversely, Dallas has been a very weak rush defense team. It’s something they’ve improved on in a big way in recent months; arguably their biggest tactical change. There’s no longer a gap between the forwards and defenders in transition. And a lot Corey’s tracking data tallied these chances early in the season when the Stars didn’t have their heads screwed on straight.

Still, I think that’s what this one a strong test; especially if it’s not a special teams battle. I’m fully ready to call this team a wagon. But I’m every-so skeptical that their neutral zone demons are truly behind them. Glen Gulutzan has had to ditch Pete DeBoer’s defensive scheme entirely. That’s not a small thing, to state the obvious. Don’t be surprised if the Stars shut them down though. Utah also creates a lot on the cycle, and Dallas allows some of the fewest chances off the cycle in the league. Expect a tight and tactical one tonight. This Utah team is built different. But so is their opponent.

1. I know I lost a lot of points by predicting Hyrckowian wouldn’t make the cut. Do I get to win some back by arguing that Hyry was NHL ready? Even just a few? Maybe even a cookie?

2. They generated the most chances off the rush last season, which is distinct from generating the most goals off the rush. The latter is prone to shooting percentage inflation while the former is not.