Stars Stuff: Radek Faksa out, Colin Blackwell in, Thomas Harley's projection, and worst value contracts
Free agency is not over. Even though it feels like it.
One thing’s for sure: this offseason will be analyzed, fileted, chopped up, and fixated on for many years to come. Granted, I could be talking about other teams as well, namely Nashville and Washington who turned themselves into behemoths overnight (Washington I’m not sold on because they clearly got there with a scalding hot goaltender, but Nashville I DO think went feral in the best way), but today we’re talking about Dallas.
I’m still chewing on Jim Nill’s opening salvo. Dallas got worse. But next week I’ll be writing a more thorough reflection on it at D Magazine because I think there’s a bigger story there than just Got Better Or Not. Please stay tuned for that one on Monday.
But yesterday was a nice reprieve from all that. Dallas not only did something that felt like a long time coming, but they also added a nice depth piece. We’ll get to those in a bit, but for now it’s worth remembering that Dallas has $7.13 million to work with. Obviously, the bulk of this will be doing to Thomas Harley. How much?
According to Evolving-Hockey, Harley is likely to be paid 2 x $3.9 million, which would leave Dallas with $3.2 million to work with. However…
If Dallas wanted to, they could sign him to a longer contract. In fact, they could almost max out if they wanted to (well not really because you want to leave space for Mavrik Bourque). But broadly speaking, the Stars aren’t in any danger of his cap being a problem, not with all the money coming off the books in 2025. The upside is that Harley looks like a certified top-four defender, and you get him in the prime of his career at a lower cost than someone like Brandon Montour.
Evolving-Hockey has him leading all RFAs in terms of value added, rating him eight goals above replacement, which was actually higher than Quinton Byfield.
The downside is that it basically guarantees they can’t do anything ahead of the trade deadline. (Although they can always flip Dadonov)
Either way, Harley will be locked up eventually. He is, after all, I would argue, Dallas’ second best defender. While a bridge deal is most likely, a longer deal won’t cripple the team either. In fact, it might even the most prudent thing to do.
Radek Faksa to the Blues: Future Considerations
I never liked talking “smack” about Faksa. But I had to when the organization decided to play him like their second line center. I had to when it seemed like the choice was obvious between Faksa and Jason Dickinson ahead of the Seattle expansion draft; or when it seemed like they needed to finally cash in those chips last summer.
But I took no pleasure. I was well-familiar with his story, and in 2016 I got to name his first line trio (the Fak’Em Line). I’ve always liked Faksa. But at a certain point, he reached his limits, and for some bizarre reason the organization ignored those limits. Suddenly that robust checking line center who could chip in the odd goal became a $3.2 million dollar player who produced like a fourth-liner but was treated like “two-way” royalty; as if being a forward with good defense is the same as being good at both offense and defense.
Finally an era ends that was something of a roller coaster for the former 13th overall pick from 2012.
The Bowness era killed him. There’s definitely some statistical noise here, but I think it’s clear that Faksa was always very useful when used correctly. Hopefully the same is true in St. Louis, since they’re getting a very useful player low in the lineup. It’s sad to see him go, but it was time.
Coling Blackwell: One year, $775,000
Yes, the other San Jose seventh-round pick who ended up having an NHL career. I was super happy to see Blackwell signed. An ‘analytics darling’ for many years now, he’s a disciplined lowkey skilled fourth liner who can generate offense from shift to shift, and draw penalties.
He’s not gonna be the presence that Sam Steel was, but he’ll provide something similar with a more offensive slant, performing well above expectations and not getting in the way. Blackwell-Steel-Dadonov is a sneaky dangerous fourth line too. It’s not even a crash and bang/defense first group so much as a trio that will be looking to score and push play. Count me in as a fan!
Evolving-Hockey’s Worst Value Contracts
This was written on June 30 and I just thought I’d leave this here.
CPG refers to Cost Per Goal. It’s basically their Goals Above Replacement model, but pretzled into their cap and contract info. And yes, I’m working on a Goals Above Replacement explainer (hey; free agency has had me tied up). For now, you can go to the source.
It’s also fun to see to look at their best-value contracts in 2022.
I'm sure you're aware of this, but it feels like the Stars have too many players. Could we get a breakdown sometime of what the roster looks like with the additions and subtractions and where that leaves the team both in terms of depth and salary cap?
Great work as always!
Illya double dipped on the charts....
Lyubuskin!!!???!!!???
Just signed this dude and it's already a roller-coaster.
With Bichsel poised to grab a spot on the NHL roster at any given time next season, I'm actually beginning to come around on the signings. They may not force Miro to the left side, but they do allow for more opportunities for him to play from his natural side.