Stars Stuff: The "Charlie O'Connor addresses your obsession with Rasmus Ristolainen" mailbag edition

It's a lot. So Stars fans have a lot of questions.

There’s not much to unpack from Tuesday. Columbus is somewhere between a decent team and an also-ran¹. A team like that can look like the 2008 Red Wings when you’re running on empty. And that’s what happened. Three games in four nights, in addition to multiple defenders playing a Running Man’s worth of icetime. Even a poor performance from Elvis Merzlikins wasn’t enough to get Dallas past the finish line.

This raises a lot of questions. Yes, Dallas is a very good team. And good teams aren’t supposed to have big questions surrounding them. But Dallas is an exception due to various factors; some beyond their control, some within it.

We’re nine days until the trade deadline, and all is quiet on the Western (and Eastern) front. Well, not really. But for all the business that needs to get done for various teams, it’s extremely thin on activity given the state of the playoff race. Thanks again for everyone that contributed in the chat.

At this point, I'm not sure what the Stars can do vs what they will do. I'd still like to see them add a forward and a d-man (as well as move a d-man or two out).

I’ve been ranting and raving about this since jump street: Jim Nill is in an impossible spot. With all the money to work with, that money happens to be tied up in a shoddy market with limited options. So the border between “can” and “will” is a lot like the border between whether I can choose between the baked beans and the canned corn, and whether I will choose between the baked beans and canned corn. The thing about making future additions is figuring out what that means for the young players. You want them to get critical experience. Who do you think gets scratched in place of a veteran option?

After watching 4 nations, do you think Jason Robertson would have been a better option for Team USA than anyone else? Robertson has a knack for scoring from seemingly unsuspecting plays, and may have been able to chip in a clutch goal. But in my opinion the game was played at such a fast pace that he may not have been able to keep up given his slower foot speed. Not asking who’s a better player, but would he have fit better than any of Boldy, Trochek, Nelson, Kreider, Connor, or other potentials like Tage Thompson etc.?

So yes: obviously yes. There’s a clear reason for why Robertson missed the cut and it’s because these rosters were selected when Robertson was struggling. However, I think it says a lot about the decision-making process that not currently scoring is treated the same as not able to score. In fairness, teams love flexibility. Robertson isn’t a positionally flexible winger. He’s a left wing and only a left wing. I don’t think there’s anything wrong that it. In fact, I consider it an asset for a player to be a specialist by trade². Insert the Bruce Lee quote about practicing a thousand punches versus practicing one punch a thousand times, and all that. And while he’s great defensively, I suspect Robertson doesn’t fit neatly into what I assume is rampant Herb Brooks fetishism in Team USA’s brain trust. “I’m not looking for the best players. I’m looking for the right ones.”

Would like to see a d-man added as I am questioning what a Miro return for the playoffs will even look like. The problem I see is who do the Stars give to get in this circumstance? Maybe just out scoring everyone and having Jake stand on his head is the answer.

Nill might give to get in the offseason, but not now. Even with all the spending money, part of Nill’s job is future planning. Being able to afford all the key players now and in the future is how he views the deadline. I suspect Nill views the defense as “well I can only work with what I have” and the deadline simply didn’t have anything, so he spent on ‘adding’ value where he could. I think it’s worth asking, however, if Dallas is the kind of team that can outscore its problems and whether or not Oettinger is a goalie that can stand on his head. That, to me, is the real debate.

Handedness aside, do you think Bichsel can play his way into the top 4? I worry Ceci is the only other option if they don’t make any moves.

I’ve always been high on Bichsel’s game, and his NHL appearance has only validated that since. I would like to see something like Bichsel-Heiskanen, and Harley-Lindell in time. Yes, it’s nothing but four lefties, but if you’re not gonna patch up the right side, then just ignore it. It’s better than half-measures like Ceci, Dumba, and Lyubushkin³ who are and have never been (at least not lately) top four material.

Honestly, I'd like to see them try to move Kyrou and Stranges, and then try to trade Matt Dumba for salary cap purposes... Ristolainen makes a ton of sense, as Rasmus Andersson isn't available. Or even Radko Gudas and a guy like Trevor Zegras (maybe success and less pressure would unlock more of his scoring touch)... Other than that, I don't think there's many options out there...

This is exactly why I wouldn’t expect anything. Maybe Nill will bring in some depth, but nothing serious, and certainly not with his prospects. The only way this becomes a potential option is if Heiskanen’s timetable shifts (something we already have evidence of, as Tyler Seguin has began skating while Heiskanen hasn’t) AND Dallas suffers another major injury. At that point, all bets are off. Even when healthy, the blueline is arguably their weakest link. Should Heiskanen return in time, Lindell and Ceci are still the projected pair just below them. Seeing them get pieced up tactically against Columbus isn’t the most encouraging sign.

After watching the intangibles the Tkachuk brothers brought to the 4 Nations tournament (not to mention what they bring to their own NHL teams), do you think that's a weakness of the Stars, not having that sh*t-disturber type player? Players like Benn and Marchment have some of those qualities, but not nearly to the same extent. I don't follow the Panthers closely, but it seems like the acquisition of Matthew is what finally pushed them over the top.

Gavin and I have discussed this ad nauseum. The reason this works for Florida is because Tkachuk also happens to be one of their best players. Junkyard dog Sam Bennett is also one of their best players. When Dallas’ best players play like this, then they can factor this into their equation for success. So I think it can be a factor. However, teams either have it or they don’t. Dallas doesn’t have it. Only time will tell if it’s truly a weakness.

Which is a bigger improvement, acquiring Jones, or Ristolainen AND Nelson/Marchand? Do you see the cost being about the same?

Pretty much. If Granlund can bring back a first, so will Marchand⁴. Although the market can always change. Again, Chris Tanev brought back a 2nd a C-List prospect. So who knows. Point is, Marchand and Nelson are high level rentals while Jones and Ristolainen are low level hockey trades.

What do you think would be the realistic package that we could offer for Ristolainen?

With so much Ristolainen talk, it might behoove me to be kind and rewind.

[Insert Flashback] For the longest time, Ristolainen was a poster child for the player whose value by coaches and GMs was not proportional to the shift-to-shift value that analytics revealed him to be. He was the discount version of Seth Jones. He’d put up points, but when he was on the ice, his team got caved in. Eventually even Buffalo didn’t think he was good enough.

Fast forward to his trade to Philadelphia. Under John Tortorella, and primarily paired with not-too-bad-himself Yegor Zamula, Ristolainen has been a completely different player. In fact, he grades out like the player he was drafted as.

So what is a realistic package? I turned to Charlie O’Connor for this one. O’Connor is one of my inspirations when it comes to a more modern approach to hockey writing (he’s ‘based’ as the kids say). He used to write for The Athletic, and now he covers the Flyers for the Philadelphia chapter of the All City Network. Here was his answer.

“Right now, the Flyers are looking for two things for Risto:

• a first rounder

• no salary retention on the deal.

Their stance is that with two years left on his deal, they don't have to rush into a trade. He'll still have value this summer or next deadline. Is it possible they'd take a 2nd if there's full retention? Or retain a little/take back a deal if they get a first? Maybe. But that's the realm they're operating in.

And when I say "first rounder," that also counts equivalent assets. I think they'd take a young player who they could sell as having first rounder value in lieu of an actual pick, too.”

This seems like a totally doable deal. Simple, even. Philly’s prospect pool is good, but nothing earth-shattering. Here’s the problem, and it’s a problem Nill has avoided during his entire tenure: cap knots. Ristolainen’s contract is a reasonable $5.1 million AAV, but he’ll be on the books for one season after Jason Robertson and Thomas Harley get their raises. Is that manageable?

I know the blue line is the obvious roster hole, but to what degree are the Stars' defensive personnel woes just hand-wringing? We know what can and can't be done (or do we?), that there are also positives to being stacked on one side, and also that "good-enough" defense can win championships. Am I being too dismissive if I categorize this as a tradeoff, like most teams have, that not much can be done about?

I don’t think so. I think you’re in line with the status quo.

But I disagree. Two, important reasons.

• Goals against is not defense! Is Dallas’ blueline as good as the one that brought in Tanev at the deadline? Not even close. The fact that they’re keeping goals down is proof of nothing because it tells us nothing about the future. However, some things do (see below).

• Shut the hell up about Florida (not directed at you) Everyone brings up Florida as an example of being able to get away with a thin blueline. Here’s the reason this worked for Florida: elite defensive forwards. Having players like Barkov, Reinhart, and Lundell took the pressure off the blueline⁵. Not to mention, I think the Panthers’ blueline last season was extremely overlooked. Yes, it was one of the weaker cores in recent memory, but it didn’t show up in the numbers. The Panthers were 6th in expected goals against per 60 at EV. Dallas, conversely, is 19th this year. Their respective defenses away from goaltending are worlds apart.

This may seem like “just numbers” but I don’t ever advise ignoring the numbers. That’s what I did last year despite staring right into the spreadsheet abyss.

Do you think the nhl will change the overtime rules next season following the success of 4 nations overtime results? A random rule change one too... if a team gets a penalty in the final minute of a game do you think they should get the option of a penalty shot instead of a reduced time powerplay?

Player reactions were mixed in response to the 10-minute overtime change, with Patrik Laine predictably having the best answer. It’s worth keeping in mind another rule that was in play had teams needed it: the new shootout rule. Teams could select repeat shooters after the third round. This is an old rule by international standards, and one of the reasons why I wouldn’t mind if the shootout stayed: one of the most exciting hockey moments of the last 20 years was Oshie’s Herculean one-on-one effort versus Sergei Bobrovsky in the shootout.

While I don’t mind your suggestion, I’d rather see games extended if need be for penalty-specific reasons. Special teams are a big part of hockey. Two minutes should be two minutes.

How concerned should we be that Miro isn't skating yet? Can we really play Harley and Lindell 30 minutes a night and expect them to be ready for playoffs?

Very. The issue is less about Harley and Lindell playing so much — okay, not really because that’s very important — and more about not having proper support. While there were a lot of reasons for why Dallas lost to Edmonton, playing five defensemen didn’t help. It’d be the height of folly to attempt the same thing for different reasons.

What are we hearing about Bischel? Concussion protocol can go either way. 1. I hope he's okay, but 2. We're mega-screwed if he is out for an extended duration

Robert Tiffin covered this in great detail yesterday.

I believe that I read somewhere that Robert ? Asked Harley how he was doing, and Harley said he was really tired. Tyler’s concern (IMHO) is spot on. Season only gets harder from here on out.

It’s common knowledge that fatigue adversely affects decision making. One of the things I don’t like about seeing in situations like this is that these players don’t have anything to gain by playing the kind of exorbitant minutes they would never play otherwise. When you’re down a defender during a game, that makes sense, but the Stars are going the Need to Win Games route.

We’ll see how long this goes on. There have been odd and extenuating circumstances in some of the games, not to mention, Dallas has been playing a lot so I’m not sure how much this recent stretch actually reflects the coaching staff’s desires.

Do you see Dallas making more moves?

Yes. Just not the ones anyone wants.

Do you have any hockey books/autobiographies you recommend? I've a read a few (mostly the enforcers) but could always do with suggestions! Also which current star would you like to see on the new prime series?

I’m not the person to recommend hockey books. My reading interest is specific to science fiction, and nonfiction (basic stuff like history and philosophy). When I do read hockey books, it’s x’s and o’s stuff like Ryan Stimson’s Tape to Space, or Rob Vollman. I’m ashamed to admit I read all of Stan Fischler’s enforcer books in high school because Fischler is an awful analyst. And I don’t care for the human stories because this post has been brought to you by whatever lake had to be drowned via ChatGPT.

As for the current star with their own series, Patrik Laine is the correct answer. As far as coaching goes, Jessica Campbell for the historic nature of it all. And as far as hockey manager goes, Tom Dundon. Since agents don’t seem to like him. At all.

How concerned should we be about Otter's last 8 games or so? I know a few of those were not on him last night, but I am looking for more out of him if Stars are going to make some noise.

I’m just gonna link here to my piece in D Magazine yesterday.

David: What do you think has happened to our puck pressure and defense in the neutral zone? Or at our defensive blue line? Teams are being allowed to easily build speed through the neutral zone and attack with possession into our zone on the rush as we have seemed to become so passive in our defensive structure. Is this an intentional change in strategy due to the weakend blue line?

This is a really great question. I don’t know if you already read my piece on Dallas’ neutral zone troubles—not that you aren’t capable of making the observation yourself—but for those that haven’t:

I don’t see it as tactical. I think Dallas is just leaky. Their NZ forecheck is a typical 1-2-2. Their forwards and defenders pressure the entry to force the dump-in, with the backup defender aiming to retrieve the puck should it be dumped in. Just looking at Dallas’ makeup, most of their blueline isn’t adept at this. Even Harley is struggling at denying entries this year despite being pretty decent last season. The fact that Harley was good at this previously is the smoking gun IMO. My suspicion — and I’ll try to explore this more in depth later — is that it’s their regroups when they have possession that’s causing some noise. Only three teams give the puck up more (per 60) than Dallas, and I’m thinking it’s taking place a lot in the neutral, creating some traffic congestion.

Looking farther into the future here, but what are your thoughts about offer sheets this off-season, what with the Blues dropping 2 on the Oilers last year and the cap going up? Gavin Spittle mentioned them in passing on a recent episode along with the Stars upcoming RFAs but said he didn’t anticipate it happening to Dallas. But it seems like the biggest reason why GMs don’t utilize them is decorum, and it seems to me like it would make so much more sense to try to snipe a Johnston or Bourque than bet on a draft pick.

Dallas will have close to $25 million in cap to sign and/or bring back Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque, Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Cody Ceci, and Colin Blackwell. Johnston is expected to get $8.8 million in AAV to the full term per Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. That leaves around $16 million for the rest. So far so good. But what if a team like Carolina decided to throw a wrench in all this?

Carolina is one of the few teams who has four first-round picks and cap (one of the reasons why they swung for Rantanen) to offer sheet Johnston the requisite $11.4 in AAV that would force Dallas to match. They’re also one of the few teams who has done it before. There’s also the amusing connection of Andy Scott, Johnston’s agent. Scott works for Octagon Athlete Representation, who also reps Rantanen himself, along with Patrik Laine, and Leon Draisaitl. Johnston is gonna get paid. It’s been nice to have an internal “soft” cap with players like Hintz and Heiskanen getting under nine million, but if anyone has a chance to break that cap, it’s Johnston, who could easily earn eight figures. Not to mention, Carolina has pretty weak center depth. A one-two punch of Sebastian Aho and Johnston would be a dream scenario for them.

Of course, a lot of things have to break right. Johnston has to accept the offer sheet. Carolina has to view Johnston as their primary directive at the cost of everything else. And Dallas has to be in a vulnerable position to begin with. Part of Edmonton’s issue is that they prioritized their veteran signings, bringing in Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, burning $7 million in cap before getting to Holloway and Broberg (hilariously, Holloway has more points than Skinner and Arvidsson combined). As long as Nill doesn’t prioritize Benn, Duchene, and Granlund beforehand, there’s nothing to worry about.

One thing the offer sheet discussion highlights more than anything is what exactly players like Benn, Duchene, and Granlund are worth, long term. After Johnston and Bourque (granted, Bourque won’t get much), there is Robertson and Harley. It’s hard to imagine Duchene taking yet another one year deal when he’s earned a bigger contract to a team that’ll let him ride off into the sunset. Granlund might take a Duchene-type deal, but Benn won’t.

It’s the Harley/Robertson year that could leave the Stars with their nose out in the open.

Any glaring issues in the advanced numbers in regard to the blue line without Miro the past eight games?

Quick and dirty version without Miro: 28th in goals against per 60 at EV, 28th in CA, and 22nd in expected goals against. The reason their percentages are elite is that their offense has also exploded in that time (they’re 2nd in GF, and 2nd in xGF). Defensively, it’s all bad.

1. No disrespect to CBJ. They’re one of my favorite secondary teams, and there’s real juice behind their temporary success. They have a solid team from top to bottom, and they’re better on the whole than other teams vying for those wild card spots. But that goaltending is hard to hang your hat on.

2. Again, the mileage on this opinion varies in the context of faceoff importance. To me, good possession + bad faceoff skills > good faceoff skills + bad poor possession.

3. I’m only grouping Lyubushkin in with this pot because the bottom pairing is where he would be ideal in the same way that Ceci and Dumba would be ideally on the bottom pair if you HAD to play them.

4. And yes, I know that Nill saw his first as being part of what brought him back Granlund and Ceci. That saws more about Mike Grier’s artful negotiation in the deal than it does Nill.

5. Hintz and Johnston are definitely in the vicinity here, but they’re kind of all Dallas has. What hurts is that Duchene is quite weak defensively.