Stars Stuff: The great Heiskanen debate, ideal lines with Seguin's return, and Martino named a Hobey Baker finalist

Plus a quick preview of Dallas vs. Tampa.

Because Colorado is likely Dallas’ first-round opponent, I’ve been watching them a bit more than usual. Admittedly I watch them often simply because Cale Makar is such a sublime talent. But they’re also just one of the more interesting teams post-deadline. Their deadline additions were some of the better moves made that day, but they also took a step back defensively. Then there’s the whole will he/won’t he Gabriel Landeskog thing. This song and dance has been going on for years, but AJ Haefele seems to think there’s more to it than usual.

Watching them lose to Toronto didn’t quell those particular concerns. Yes, they lost 2-1. But Joseph Woll, like Anthony Stolarz, form one of the best goaltending duos in the league. If you haven’t been paying attention to the Maple Leafs, you would never know it because it’s a complete 180 from the usual narrative. There’s a reason Auston Matthews only has 27 goals and it hasn’t cratered their playoff chances and that’s why. The Avalanche looked like the same team that blitzed the Leafs earlier in March when they won 7-4.

Colorado is one of the reasons why the Miro Heiskanen “news” has been on my mind so much. And it’s why I wrote about it for D Magazine yesterday. They’re an interesting potential opponent for the Stars precisely because they excel (offense) where Dallas is weakest (defense). Interacting with readers and fans on social media, I got the impression that Heiskanen as Dallas’ best player is not at all a given.

While I don’t think Stars fans take Miro Heiskanen for granted, I do wonder — just a bit — how much the expectation for Heiskanen to be more offensively gifted weighs on the general analysis of his on-ice impact. Humor me with a thought experiment. If Dallas kept John Klingberg, leaving Heiskanen on the second power play unit, would you look at Heiskanen differently? If he were treated more like Devon Toews to Thomas Harley’s Makar, what would we say?

This is why a potential matchup with Colorado doesn’t worry me so much as convince me that the gameplan has to do be to outscore their problems. In terms of shift-to-shift impact, Heiskanen has no equal. Not even with Harley having a career year¹.

Click here for a casual fan’s guide to sG.

I was right there with those who felt like Heiskanen’s impact on the top power play unit was a problem. I’m nowhere near you if you think Esa Lindell is the better “pure defender” or that Dallas can defend a team like Colorado without him². The Stars are -44 in shots on net without Heiskanen. With him, they were a +104. I don’t expect or even desire agreement from readers at all times, but we’re worlds apart if you think he’s not Dallas’ best player. He’s not perfect. But he single-handedly raises the floor of the team. Typically it’s only elite goalies who can accomplish that.

And don’t worry. I’ll have a poll below to ‘settle’ this.

The lines, post Seguin

One of the reasons why I don’t believe the sky is falling at the thought of a Colorado matchup is that Dallas’ offense is still a monster.

Right now, these are the current lines.

Data and visual courtesy of LB-Hockey.

Skip this graph if you don’t care about analytics: I really dig what Louis Boulet is doing with these. On the surface, it looks straightforward if you’re used to this stuff. Boulet is tallying the numbers in terms of SPAR, or Standing Points Above Replacement (same concept as Wins Above Replacement, just displayed as points in the standings). However, baked into the single-value stats are Corey Sznajder’s tracking data. This adds a lot more nuance, and it ends up creating something pretty cool and new, which is the chemistry boost (the tan box below the teal scores). This boost is calculated by defining player profiles such as checkers, shutdown types, scorers, possession, transition forwards, all-offense, playmakers, etc.

If Seguin returns before the playoffs, here’s the future — with Seguin taking his old spot and I assume Mikael Granlund in place of the rotating RW door next to Benn and Johnston. Pay attention to the teal numbers on the left.

Data and visual courtesy of LB-Hockey.

As you can see, the second and third lines get a boost; predictable with the return of Seguin, but equally predictable with Granlund drawing in next to Johnston. But it’s still nice to see. The fourth line will likely look different. I expect Oskar Bäck will be next to Sam Steel and Mavrik Bourque. Personally I hope Evgenii Dadonov draws in. He’s had a tough stretch, but he was mint in the playoffs in proportion to role. All the same, Dallas’ depth is obscene, and projects to be more than enough if a matchup with Colorado turns into a track meet³.

Sorry about Nikolas Matinpalo in place of Matt Dumba. Dumba doesn’t have a sufficient amount of tracking data from Corey’s A3Z project.

Ayrton Martino: Hobey Baker Finalist

Unsigned Dallas Stars prospect Ayrton Martino is officially in of the top 10 for college’s best player this year. Could he win?

Honestly, I think he has a better case than you most. Players like Jack Devine and Zeev Buium are part of a stacked Denver squad, which works against them (not to mention, Buium, who is a brilliant player, that took a step back in terms of production from his freshman year). Same with Ryan Leonard and Boston College. Mac Gadowsky is easily the best story, as he’s the first Hobey Baker nominee in the program’s history. He’s also the second oldest (23), which might work against him. Alex Tracy might have the best case. His .946 save percentage is just obscene, but again, he’s older. So it’s hard to imagine Clarkson without Martino, who led his team in scoring by a wide margin, which is a testament to how much potential he has.

If you’re sick of reading me, give me a listen. I talked about Dallas’ prospect pool with Gavin Spittle yesterday. And it was fun, as things always are with Gavin.

Dallas vs. Tampa Bay

One team that is not dealing with injuries, and has both barrels loaded is Tampa Bay. They’re also one of the few teams with a better goal differential than Dallas. Despite this, Micah’s model has them as the slight favorite.

Kind of curious how. Tampa has the only forward group I *might* take over Dallas. They have a little bit more texture, with the two-way excellence of Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel suffused in their top six. In addition to gamebreaking offensive talent from Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel (who for my money, was easily the best forward on that Team USA squad at the 4 Nations).

However, Tampa’s roster really puts into perspective how good the Stars forward core is. The Lightning have one of the best forward groups in the league, and yet compare these two team’s bottom sixes. The edge Dallas has is significant — a fact that will be even more pronounced when Granlund and Bourque are playing in the bottom six.

Dallas coming out of tonight with a win would be huge. Expect another firefight.

The Poll

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1. Harley’s progression cannot be understated. Follow his path, and it’s quite similar to Hieskanen. This Toews-Makar comparison is not near as crazy as it sounds.

2. Per PuckIQ, he also plays a full minute more than anyone else versus elite competition.

3. Although I’ll still die on the hill that these lines deserve an experiment.

4. Sorry Hintz, Harley, and Duchene fans. These polls only allow for five options.