Stars Stuff: The state of the Stack, Oettinger vs. Swayman, NHL action so far, the 2025 draft, and more!

Ramblers...let's get rambling.

I’d like to think I’ve got you covered for opening night.

Unpacking the fanciest of stats, and what they say about Dallas’ future. How Cedar Park figures into Dallas’ fortunes. General predictions for the regular season. The dynamic between Dallas versus the Pacific (their real enemy). Or Dallas versus the Central (yawn).¹ Or why the young core is hardcore. If enforcers were still a part of the game, I’d probably be doing fight reviews too.²

So much of the fun in all this is how much of that goes out the window once the pucks start flying. Hockey contains multitudes, and balancing its many natures are the Hockey Gods playing the role of raw chance. Would anyone really be surprised if Dallas went 0-5 to start? Sure, it’s not something anyone is predicting, and it would only be confirmation of how dumb hockey can be, but hey — if it could happen to that Edmonton team, who went 2-9-1 to start last season, why not the Stars?

To that end, we’re gonna dig deeper than ever before. I was having this discussion with Eric Schumacher, who covers the Blue Jackets at his own Substack; genuinely one of the better writer/analysts I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been reading since the Dellow/Tulsky days. Putting together tracking data is hard. There’s a reason hockey has Corey Sznajder and that’s pretty much it (thankfully for us, nobody in the NHL has picked him up to pay him what he’s worth). You have to have a system, a framework, and lots and lots of time. I tried two seasons ago — starting with transition play — and got burned out. So I decided to pony up cash I don’t have thanks to you paid subscribers, and will be getting exclusive All Three Zones data within 24 hours thanks to the man himself.

That’s super cool and I can’t wait to share. Essentially, paid subscribers will get a weekly feature getting a deeper dive into game recaps; whether Dallas was more effective on the rush versus the cycle, scoring chances off entries, passing efficiency, zone exits, the works. Not content to stop there, I’ll be doing my own project looking at the power play. While I haven’t finished the rubric, it’ll work a lot like Arik Parnass’ outline (just, ya know…less smart) who broke down power plays by shot types, zone entries, and formation. I’ll also be recording whether or not a shot was taken every seven seconds, since this is a Steve Spott rule, along with whether or not there is a rotation every ten seconds.³

I wanted to be more ambitious and track the formations themselves (slot rotation, switch, back drive plays, umbrella setups, etc) but unless you all turn into paid subscribers, I have to have limits.⁴ “Why the power play?” Glad you asked. Power plays are more fun and less nebulous. If I miss a game I know exactly where to go and when to start tracking. In addition, it was a big story in Dallas’ loss to Edmonton, so the pressure’s on for the team to deliver where it’s ostensibly most capable.

I’ll also be putting up Gameday threads in the chat for paid subscribers too. I’m sure there’s some SEO math about engagement velocity or whatever, but I just want to cover all the bases without stretching myself too thin. On a more random note, you may have noticed that Ralph Strangis is back in the game. Follow him. I didn’t know anything about him before hanging out with him last weekend (more on that later), but he’s cooking something totally unique not just within the Stars community, but for hockey in general.

And on that note…

Chaos reigns in hockey’s first few games

Regular season hockey may be awaiting Dallas, but not everyone else. Obviously, one game doesn’t tell us much, but Florida looked every bit as elite as they were last season. There was no “hangover.” They just absolutely bullied and bulldozed a very good Boston team like they were the Ducks pre-Bombay.

Data and visual courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy.

It’s obviously silly, if not very dumb, to imagine a Stanley Cup Final between Dallas and Florida this early, but that’s the ambition, and so why not? I don’t see anyone else beating the Panthers. Could Dallas? I don’t believe the Panthers are a dynasty in development, so yes. This isn’t the Tampa Bay Lightning from several years ago; a team that was functionally perfect (right-handed D lineup aside). But the Stars will have to show something new — like better passing coming out of the zone, or more rush chances — to make me that confident they can pull it off on exhausted legs.

Switching to Utah (Gavin Spittle’s actual favorite team). They looked good. Yes, one game, etc. But Arizona had been building a decent-ish foundation for awhile. If one of L.A. or Winnipeg fall out of playoff contention, then someone like Utah has a real lane to crack through. Dylan Guenther is a star in the making; a player I wasn’t high on his draft year because I thought he was too one-dimensional. In reality, he’s a specialist, and that’s different. His formula of shooting + skating may come across as simplistic, but when both elements are that good? I still don’t like their line combinations, but so far, they look relatively complete despite lacking real star power.

Hilariously, the Canadian favorites all lost. Edmonton got Skinnered versus Winnipeg, Vancouver collapsed against Calgary (blowing a three-goal lead more than once), and Toronto was shutout by Montreal. Insert a perfunctory joke about Connor McDavid screaming at his team during a regular season intermission. Those teams will be fine, of course, but who doesn’t love chaos when it affects others? Also, Colorado got absolutely smoked. Could Dallas be the next favorite to open with a loss?

Jake Oettinger vs. Jeremy Swayman

Let’s cut to the chase. Is Oettinger as good, or close to being as good as Swayman? I’ve focused on three stats against their respective peers (at least 1000 minutes over the last three seasons, combined): save percentage, delta Fenwick Save Percentage (this is the difference between a goalie’s expected save percentage versus unblocked shots against — it’s like a goalie’s intrinsic save percentage, except adjusted for minutes), and Goals Saved Above Expected (which is calculated by tallying expected goals against, and subtracting observed goals against). Next to each number is their rank among their peers in said category.

Swayman

• Sv%: .915 (7th)

• dFSv%: .83 (10th)

• GSAx: 39 (9th)

Oettinger

• Sv%: .911 (15th)

• dFSv%: .37 (29th)

• GSAx: 23 (17th)

Before someone says “well what about the defense in front of them?” here’s your smoking gun: over the last three seasons combined, Boston and Dallas are top four in shot quality against per hour at even strength. On the power play, Boston and Dallas are top three (!) in shot quality against. So yea. These teams have extremely comparable (and elite) defenses in front of them, and one goaltender is simply better than the other.⁵

Oettinger is not as good as Swayman, which would make a similar eight-million + per year contract potentially disastrous. However, none of this is set in stone. We’ll cross this bridge when needed, but for now, Oettinger has a chance to change the narrative in a critical season.⁶

Speed kills?

Aaron Knodell has a fantastic little breakdown of the NHL EDGE data for the Stanley Cup Final. I recommend reading it in full. It’s a small sample size, but it’s something that doesn’t get talked about enough.

NHL EDGE: Stanley Cup Final Recap

Namely, that for all the talk about getting tougher and meaner, the Stars will need to be faster to level up. It’s not the most scintillating breakthrough — things work better when they go faster — but it does add an extra layer to how we analyze the game, even if the margins could prove to be negligible in time.

EPRinkside releases its early 2025 Draft Rankings

EPRinkside is the place to follow if you’re interested in the 2025 draft class, and they have their early rankings out. We did our super early look at the 2025 draft here too, focusing on Carter Amico (RHD), Charlie Threthaway (RHD — noticing a pattern?), and lots of left wings. Dallas still has nothing in the system with RHD and LW at this point, so it’ll be interesting to see how some of those players develop, and if Dallas gets a shot at any of them. Be on the look out for left winger Benjamin Kevan out of the USHL.

One of the things I’ll be doing is paying closer attention to the draft as a whole, and Dallas’ prospects more specifically. This is one thing I can’t 100 percent commit to, so don’t be surprised if it’s more intermittent than it deserves to be. Nonetheless, we’re as invested here in the future as we are the present here at the Stars Stack.

1. No disrespect to the Central. Okay maybe a little; okay maybe a lot. My thing with the Central is that if somebody can become better than Dallas, they will develop into a competitor. As is, no such thing exists.

2. It helped pay the bills for me once. Why not twice?

3. I found this nugget about Spott reading Ryan Stimson’s Tape to Space, which has a link to The Coach’s Site, but the link is, unfortunately broken. Whether or not that rule has changed, I don’t know, but it seems relevant all the same.

4. That wasn’t TOO passive aggressive was it?

5. I know these numbers are impossibly worded, so here’s the top five goalies over the last three years in dFSv%: Anderson, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Ullmark, and Hellebuyck. Here are the top five in GSAx: Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros, and Ullmark.

6. Ralph Strangis has a less hopeful point of view, which I tend to agree with.